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"The Regression Discontinuity (RD) design is one of the most popular and credible research designs for program evaluation and causal inference. This volume 38 of Advances in Econometrics collects twelve innovative and thought-provoking contributions to the RD literature, covering a wide range of methodological and practical topics. Some chapters touch on foundational methodological issues such as identification, interpretation, implementation, falsification testing, estimation and inference, while others focus on more recent and related topics such as identification and interpretation in a discontinuity-in-density framework, empirical structural estimation, comparative RD methods, and extrapolation. These chapters not only give new insights for current methodological and empirical research, but also provide new bases and frameworks for future work in this area. This volume contributes to the rapidly expanding RD literature by bringing together theoretical and applied econometricians, statisticians, and social, behavioural and biomedical scientists, in the hope that these interactions will further spark innovative practical developments in this important and active research area."

"Beroperasinya MRT Fase I dengan rute dari stasiun Lebak Bulus menuju stasiun Bundaran HI di Jakarta yang dimulai pada Bulan Mei 2019 memberikan harapan agar bisa mengurangi kemacetan di Jakarta. MRT awalnya menerapkan tarif gratis, kemudian dikenakan tarif diskon pada bulan April 2019 dan pada tanggal 13 Mei 2019 tarif dinaikkan 100%. MRT akan dikembangkan ke fase II dan III pada tahun 2020 hingga tahun 2024. Perencanaan ini membutuhkan evaluasi MRT fase I yang saat ini sedang beroperasi, untuk melihat elastisitas permintaan penumpang terhadap perubahan tarif MRT. Penelitian ini menggunakan data asal-tujuan pada jumlah penumpang yang berasal dari semua stasiun MRT Jakarta untuk melihat dampak perubahan tarif ganda pada 13 Mei 2019. Perbandingan jumlah penumpang dilakukan pada waktu sebelum dan sesudah tanggal ketika tarif berubah melalui pendekatan Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ada penurunan jumlah penumpang sebesar 11,3% yang menyiratkan elastisitas permintaan penumpang dalam jangka pendek yaitu -0,0086. Perkiraan ini menunjukkan permintaan MRT bersifat inelastis seperti yang ditemukan dalam literatur terbaru dari elastisitas permintaan angkutan rel (harga sendiri) di Australia (Litman, 2017).

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Phase I MRT operations with a route from Lebak Bulus station to the Bundaran HI station in Jakarta starting in May 2019 give hope to reduce congestion in Jakarta. MRT applies free fare at the start of operations, then is subject to discounted rates in April and on May 13, 2019 fares are raised 100%. The development of the MRT will continue to phases II and III in 2020 to 2024. This planning requires an evaluation of the phase I MRT which is currently operating, to see the elasticity of passenger demand for changes in MRT fare. This study uses origin destination (O-D) data on the number of passengers originating from all Jakarta`s MRT (Mass Rapid Transit) stations to see the effect double fare change on May 13, 2019. It compares the passengers at time before and after the date when the fare changes with  Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) approach. The estimates show that there was a decrease in passenger numbers by 11,3% which implies the short-response demand elasticity of 0,0086. This estimate shows MRT demand is inelastic as found in the latest literature on the elasticity of rail transport demand (own price) in Australia (Litman, 2017)."

"Pada tahun 2015, pemerintah Indonesia meluncurkan program Dana Desa dan memberikan skema ‘1-Desa-1-Miliar’ untuk setiap desa di Indonesia. Sebagai salah satu transfer antar pemerintah terbesar di dunia, Dana Desa bertujuan untuk mempercepat pembangunan pedesaan, mengurangi kemiskinan, dan mengatasi ketimpangan regional. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengidentifikasi dampak Dana Desa terhadap kesejahteraan pedesaan dan ketimpangan wilayah di Indonesia. Studi ini menggunakan data cahaya malam sebagai proksi kesejahteraan pedesaan dan selanjutnya digunakan untuk mengukur ketimpangan regional. Dengan menggunakan Difference in Difference (DiD) kami menemukan dampak positif dana desa terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di desa dalam jangka pendek. Dengan menggunakan Regression Discontinuity Design in Time (RDiT), kami menemukan dampak positif transfer Dana Desa terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di  desa dalam jangka menengah. Pengaruh dana desa yang paling besar terungkap di desa tertinggal, di mana desa tertinggal tumbuh lebih cepat daripada desa maju. Hal ini menunjukkan indikasi awal konvergensi di level desa yang memerlukan penelitian lebih lanjut.

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In 2015, the government of Indonesia launched the Village Fund (VF) program and provided the ‘1-Village-1-Billion’ scheme for each village in Indonesia. As one of the largest intergovernmental transfers in the world, the VF aims to accelerate rural development, reduce poverty, and overcome regional inequality. This study aims to identify the impact of the VF on rural welfare in Indonesia. Due to the lack of rural welfare data, we use the monthly night-time light dataset as a proxy for rural welfare in around 75.000 villages from 2014 to 2019. By using Difference in Difference (DiD), we found the short-run positive impact of village funds on rural economic growth. Using Regression Discontinuity Design in Time (RDiT), we found a positive impact of village fund transfer on rural economic growth in the medium run. The most considerable influence of village funds reveals in underdeveloped villages,  where poor villages grow faster than developed villages. This unexpected finding could be an initial convergence at the village level that requires further investigation."

"Potensi kompromi kriteria harga terendah telah mendapat kritik dalam dunia pengadaan publik. Meskipun kriteria harga terendah bertujuan untuk mengendalikan biaya, terdapat kekhawatiran terkait implikasi potensialnya terhadap kualitas infrastruktur. Dinamika penawaran yang abnormal dalam pengadaan infrastruktur menggunakan kriteria harga terendah menambah resiko dalam pekerjaan konstruksi. Kebijakan evaluasi kewajaran harga adalah upaya pemerintah memastikan penawaran yang terlalu rendah dapat memenuhi persyaratan proyek dengan memadai dan memberikan hasil yang diinginkan tanpa mengorbankan kualitas atau menghadapi risiko kegagalan proyek. Penelitian ini berfokus pada dampak harga yang wajar hasil evaluasi kewajaran harga pada kriteria harga terendah dalam kontrak konstruksi terhadap kualitas konstruksi. Dengan pendekatan quasi-eksperimental dan desain regresi diskontinuitas, penelitian ini menganalisis efek dari evaluasi kewajaran harga pada penawaran yang berada di bawah ambang batas tertentu terhadap kualitas konstruksi. Penelitian ini mempertimbangkan hubungan kausal antara biaya, waktu, dan kualitas konstruksi dengan mengontrol berbagai faktor yang mempengaruhinya. Penelitian ini menguji efektivitas kebijakan tersebut dan implikasinya terhadap hasil kualitas kontruksi.

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There have been critiques concerning the potential compromise of the lowest price criteria in the context of public procurement. While the main objective of implementing the lowest price criteria is to manage costs, there are concerns about its potential effects on the quality of infrastructure. Abnormal bidding patterns in infrastructure procurement using the lowest price criteria increase construction risks. The policy of evaluating the reasonableness of prices is a government effort to ensure that excessively low bids can adequately meet project requirements and deliver desired outcomes without sacrificing quality or facing project failure risks. This study focuses on the impact of reasonable price evaluation on the lowest price method in construction contracts. Using a regression discontinuity design, this study considers the causal relationship between price reasonableness evaluation on bids that fall below a certain threshold and construction quality and its implications for effectiveness."

"Penelitian ini menganalisa dampak perubahan tarif bunga penagihan yang ditetapkan oleh Menteri Keuangan. Penulis memanfaatkan peristiwa perubahan tarif dari tarif sebesar 2 persen per bulan menjadi tarif sekitar 0,50 persen per bulan sejak 2 November 2020, untuk masuk ke dalam desain regresi diskontinuitas menggunakan data tunggakan pajak. Teori ekonomi klasik memprediksi bahwa penalti yang rendah cenderung menimbulkan perilaku tidak patuh. Namun, hasil studi ini menunjukkan bahwa perubahan tarif bunga penagihan berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap respon pembayaran, tetapi tidak berpengaruh pada jumlah pengurangan/penghapusan sanksi administrasi. Hal ini memberi kesimpulan bahwa kepatuhan pajak tidak selalu linier dengan tarif penalti yang tinggi.

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This study estimates the impact of changes in late payment penalties determined by the Minister of Finance. The author exploited a rate change event from 2 per cent per month to about 0.50 per cent per month since November 2, 2020, to enter into the discontinuity regression design using tax delinquencies data. Classical economic theory predicts that low penalties lead to disobedient behaviour. However, the results of this study indicate that changes in late payment penalties have a significant positive effect on payment response but do not affect the number of reduction/write-off penalties. This study concludes that tax compliance is not always linear with high penalty rates."

"This highly anticipated second edition features new chapters and sections, 225 new references, and comprehensive R software. In keeping with the previous edition, this book is about the art and science of data analysis and predictive modeling, which entails choosing and using multiple tools. Instead of presenting isolated techniques, this text emphasizes problem solving strategies that address the many issues arising when developing multivariable models using real data and not standard textbook examples. It includes imputation methods for dealing with missing data effectively, methods for fitting nonlinear relationships and for making the estimation of transformations a formal part of the modeling process, methods for dealing with too many variables to analyze and not enough observations, and powerful model validation techniques based on the bootstrap. The reader will gain a keen understanding of predictive accuracy, and the harm of categorizing continuous predictors or outcomes. This text realistically deals with model uncertainty, and its effects on inference, to achieve safe data mining. It also presents many graphical methods for communicating complex regression models to non-statisticians."