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"ABSTRAKOptimalisasi Stokastik Tindakan Pencegahan Resiko Rantai Suplai-Sebuah Metodologi untuk Meningkatkan Ketahanan Suplai Bahan Bakar Minyak Bersubsidi di Indonesia. Metode berdasarkan simulasi Monte Carlo untuk opimasi stokastik pada penilaian risiko diperlukan untuk menyelesaikan masalah kompleks di dalam jaminan ketersediaan bahan bakar bersubsidi di Indonesia.Untuk mengatasi kendala distribusi BBM bersubsidi di Indonesia yang memiliki populasi penduduk keempat terpadat di dunia lebih dari 250.000.000 jiwa dengan 66,5 populasi masyarakat produktif, dan memiliki lebih dari 17.000 pulau dengan populasi penduduk yang terpusat hanya di wilayah ibukota Negara diperlukan system pengawasan dan penanganan risiko yang terukur serta terintegrasi demi jaminan ketersediaan BBM bersubsidi. Dengan mempertimbangkan masalah kompleks tersebut, penelitian ini sangat dipengaruhi oleh ketidakpastian dan probabilitas.Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini menggunakan metode simulasi optimasi stokastik berdasarkan sampling Monte Carlo pada kerangka kerja analisis risiko dengan keterbaruan parameter ldquo;FIRST rdquo;, yang dikombinasi dengan Analisis Sensitifitas untuk menentukan prioritas penanganan mitigasi risiko yang terintegrasi agar implikasi dari rancangan model yang baru dari penelitian ini dapat memberikan waktu mitigasi yang lebih cepat.Hasil dari penelitian ini dapat mengidentifikasi ide-ide inovatif pada audit berdasarkan risiko pada manajemen risiko rantai pasok dan parameter FIRST Fairness, Independence, Reliable, Sustainable, Transparent dalam penilaian risiko. Selain itu, integrasi pada analisis risiko menghasilkan tingkatan prioritas pada analisis sensitivitas dengan temuan yang menunjukkan bahwa waktu mitigasi yang baru lebih cepat sebanyak 60 dari waktu mitigasi risiko dengan metode yang umum.Kata kunci: faktor ldquo;FIRST rdquo;; Sampling Monte Carlo; Simulasi stokastik; ketahanan pasokan, keamanan, tingkat perubahan.

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ABSTRACTMonte Carlo simulation based methods for stochastic optimization of risk measures is required to solve complex problems in supply security of subsidized fuel oil in Indonesia. In order to overcome constraints in distribution of subsidized fuel in Indonesia, which has the fourth largest population in the world mdash more than 250,000,000 people with 66.5 of productive population, and has more than 17,000 islands with its population centered around the nation 39 s capital only mdash it is necessary to have a measurable and integrated risk analysis with monitoring system for the purpose of supply security of subsidized fuel. In consideration of this complex issue, uncertainty and probability heavily affected this research. Therefore, this research did the Monte Carlo sampling based stochastic simulation optimization with the state of the art FIRST parameter combined with the Sensitivity Analysis to determine the priority of integrated risk mitigation handling so that the implication of the new model design from this research may give faster risk mitigation time. The results of the research identified innovative ideas of risk based audit on supply chain risk management and new FIRST Fairness, Independence, Reliable, Sustainable, Transparent parameters on risk measures. In addition to that, the integration of risk analysis confirmed the innovative level of priority on sensitivity analysis. Moreover, the findings showed that the new risk mitigation time was 60 faster than the original risk mitigation time.Keywords FIRST factor Monte Carlo sampling Stochastic simulation Supply security, rate of change"

"Upaya-upaya menyiasati risiko ekonomi akibat kenaikan harga atau bentuk risiko lainnya bertujuan untuk menjamin kualitas kehidupan ekonomi yaitu kegiatan ekonomi masyarakat luas dalam penyediaan dan pendistribusian BBM. Indikatif ekonomi tersebut seyogyanya dapat diidentifikasi, diukur, dipantau dan dikendalikan secara berlanjut guna mengurangi dampak kerugian yang timbul akibat aktifitas ekonomi global. Oleh karena itu dibutuhkan adanya suatu sistem yang berperan aktif dalam mengendalikan risiko ekonomi atau disebut dengan Manajemen Risiko yang ditujukan untuk memberikan rekomendasi kepada pemerintah daerah dan pemangku kepentingan lainnya yang berisikan langkah-langkah antisipatif maupun pengendalian berbagai potensi risiko terhadap penyediaan dan pendistribusian BBM yang dapat mempengaruhi ekonomi regoinal. Rekomendasi regional yang dihasilkan oleh manajemen risiko berupa program kegiatan atau langkah-langkah strategis untuk menciptakan kondisi ekonomi masyarakat kearah kondusif dan konstruktif. Keberadaan Manajemen Risiko disetiap tingkatan provinsi dan kabupaten/kota diharapkan dapat sebagai bagian proses edukasi dalam penanganan suatu risiko ekonomi secara regional yang dapat diantisipasi sebelum krisis sesungguhnya terjadi. Ini merupakan bagian penting dari tugas komite BPH Migas untuk menjabarkan dalam konteks membantu Pemerintah Daerah dalam mengelola kebijakan ekonomi regional di era yang penuh ketidakpastian informasi. Peran manajemen risiko tentunya segera dapat mengantisipasi melalui suatu pendekatan berupa rancangan program-program ekonomi untuk menciptakan kondisi sosial ekonomi masyarakat yang kondusif dan konstruktif.

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The efforts of strategy of economic risk as result of a hike in price or the form of other risk aims to guarantee the quality of the economiy life, that is economic activity of public at large in of Oil fuel supply chain. The indicative Economy should be indentified, measured, monitored and controlled continuously to reduce impact of losses due to the global economy activity. Hence it takes the presence of a system wich played the role oc active in the control of the risk of economic or called Risk Management devoted to any recommendations to the Local Government and other Stakeholders which consist of anticapatory steps or controlling of a variety of the potential risk against of Oil Fuel Supply Chain that affect the regional economy. A recommendation that is produced by Risk Management in the form of a program of activity or steps strategic to create the public economy at conducive and constructive condition. The existence of Risk Management of luminance tiers of provincial and District /City is expected to be as part of a process means of education in handling a risk economic regional that can be anticipated before the crisis actually going on. It constitutes the essential part of the duty of BPH Migas committee to detailing in the context of help Local Government in managing the economic policy of regional in the era full of uncertainty information. The role of risk economic programs to create the socio economic diversities a society that conducive and consturctive."

"Proses pengolahan gas di Plant SBN adalah sebuah pabrik yang mempunyai bahaya cukup tinggi. Kandungan gas alam yang didalamnya terdapat gas atau matcri pengotor seperti H2O, C02, H28 dan pengotor lainnya akan menyebabkan peralatan cepat mengalami kerusakan (teijadi korosi, penipisan dan retak). I-Iasil dari prosess produksi berupa gas, kondensaie dan sisa air produksi mempunyai tingkat bahaya yang berbeda. Disamping itu apabila gas tersebut bocor atau keluar dan terpapar ierhadap pekerja atau lingkungan dapat berakibat fatal. Penelitian ini berupa penilaian resiko yang bersifat analitis deslcritif dengan melakukan analisa dan perhitungan kemungkinan kegagalan Qorobability offailure-POP) dan tingkat keparahan dari suatu kegagalan (consequence of failure-COD dari suatu kejadian terhadap 6 buah tangki timbnm di Plant SBN dengan mengunakan prinsip standar API 581 qualitative risk assessment berupa label checklist. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan factor proability of failure (POP) dan consequence of failure (COF) disimpulkan bahwa tingkat rcsiko 6 buah tangki timbun yang ada di Plant SBN adalah sebagai berikut: tangki condensate 235-T-101A dan 235-T-101B mempunyai tingkat nesiko "tinggi"; tangki condensate 235-T-201 mempunyai tingkat resiko "medium-tinggi"; tangki diesel fuel 247-T-101, produce water 258-T-101 dan 258-T-201 mempunyai tingkat reslko "rendah". Damage Factor dan Inspection Factor mempakan falctor kontribusi dominan dalam perhimngan kemunglcinan kegagalan sedangkan Chemical Factor, Quantity Factor, Auto Ignition Factor, Pressure Factor, dan Credit Factor (S'cy@ty Protection) merupakan faktor kontribusi dominan dalam perhitungan konsekwensi kegagalan pada ke-6 buah tangki tezsebut selama proses peuilaian resiko.

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Gas refinery process at SBN Plant is a plant which contains hazardous material/fluid during its process. Natural gas composition as hydrocarbon contains impurities such as HQO, CO2, H23 and other particles, which may cause equipment damage (including corrosion, thinning or cracking). A product from gas refinery is gas, condensate and produce water which they have difference hazards characteristic. However if there is gas or condensate leaking or exposed to employees or environment, it can lead a worst event. This research is to perform risk assessment using descriptive analysis approach by calculating and analyzing the probability of failure (POF) and consequence of failure (COF) at 6 (six) storage tanks at SBN Plant by using API 581 Standard as qualitative risk assessment approach with checklist table. Results suggested that probability of failure (POF) and consequence of failure (COF) factors are as follows: condensate tanks 235-T-101A and 235-T-101B have risk ranking "high"; condensate tank 235-T-201 has risk ranking "medium-high" (significant risk); diesel fuel tank 247-T-101, produce water tank 258-T-101 and 258-T-201 have risk ranking "low". Damage Factor and Inspection Factor are dominant contributing factors in probability of failure calculation and Chemical Factor, Quantity Factor, Auto Ignition Factor, Pressure Factor, Credit Factor (Safety Protection) are dominant contributing factors for consequences of failure calculation for 6 (six) storage tanks during risk assessment process."

"This introductory textbook explains how and why probability models are applied to scientific fields such as medicine, biology, physics, oceanography, economics, and psychology to solve problems about stochastic processes. It does not just show how a problem is solved but explains why by formulating questions and first steps in the solutions. Stochastic Processes is ideal for a course aiming to give examples of the wide variety of empirical phenomena for which stochastic processes provide mathematical models. It introduces the methods of probability model building and provides the reader with mathematically sound techniques as well as the ability to further study the theory of stochastic processes. Originally published in 1962, this was the first comprehensive survey of stochastic processes requiring only a minimal background in introductory probability theory and mathematical analysis. Stochastic Processes continues to be unique, with many topics and examples still not discussed in other textbooks. As new fields of applications (such as finance and DNA analysis) become important, researchers will continue to find the fundamental and accessible topics explained in this book essential background for their research."

"Tangki Penimbun yang berfungsi untuk menyimpan minyak, adalah salah satu peralatan penting dan berisiko tinggi yang memerlukan perhatian pada aspek keselamatannya. Sebagai langkah preventifnya, pemerintah mewajibkan Inspeksi pada seluruh tangki penimbun baik dengan metode jangka waktu tertentu (setiap 4 tahun) maupun analisis risiko. Studi Keselamatan ini bertujuan untuk membuat rencana Inspeksi pada tangki penimbun yang ada di kilang Minyak dengan menggunakan Metode RBI. Metode RBI pada studi ini mengadopsi API RP 581 Edisi ke-3 tahun 2016.  Secara analisis risiko dilakukan dengan tahapan, pengumpulan data teknis tangki, penentuan mekanisme kerusakan, analisis risiko dan terakhir membuat rencana interval dan metode Inspeksi. Data teknis yang dikumpulkan dan dilakukan studi sebanyak 29 unit tangki yang didesain sesuai Standar API 650. Mekanisme kerusakan pada bagian shell tanki penimbun yang ditentukan: Atmospheric Corrosion, General Corrosion dan Corrosion Under Insulation. Dari hasil analisis risiko, didapatkan hasil seluruh tangki memiliki risiko menengah dengan rincian 16 unit kategori 3C dan 13 unit kategori 2C. Metode Inspeksi yang direncanakan adalah visual inspection, UT Thickness/Flaw Thickness dan CUI dengan interval inspeksinya mayoritas mencapai 10 tahun. Berdasarkan studi ini, disimpulkan Inspeksi Berbasis Analisis Risiko (RBI) lebih efektif dan efisien daripada metode inspeksi metode jangka waktu tertentu (setiap 4 tahun).

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A storage tank, which is used to store oil, is an important and high-risk equipment that requires attention to its safety aspects. As a preventive action, the government obligate inspections on all storage tanks, either on a specific time interval (every 4 years) or based on risk analysis. This safety study aims to create an inspection plan for the storage tanks at the Oil Refinery using the Risk Based Inspection (RBI) method. The RBI method in this study adopts API RP 581 Third Edition 2016. Risk analysis is carried out in stages, including collecting technical data on the tanks, determining failure mechanisms, risk analysis, and finally creating an inspection interval and method. Technical data was collected and studied on 29 storage tanks designed according to the API 650 standard. The determined failure mechanisms for the storage tank shell are atmospheric corrosion, general corrosion, and corrosion under insulation. The results of the risk analysis showed that all tanks have a medium risk, with 16 units in category 3C and 13 units in category 2C. The planned inspection methods are visual inspection, UT Thickness/Flaw Thickness, and CUI, with most inspection intervals reaching 10 years. Based on this study, it is concluded that Risk Based Inspection (RBI) is more effective and efficient than the specific time interval inspection method (every 4 years)."