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"Combining regional growth model and integration of financial institution model, this paper evaluates whether intermediary development influences growth in Indonesia. Recent research has proved that not only banks development influence economic growth positively but also its exogenous components.However, there are several different assumptions during adopt this model in Indonesia. Especially regional approach is differing than national approach in growth model. The point is the existence of intermediary integration across region whit causes the economic agent move freely within a nation.The data show that integration of financial intermediation was not always associated with economic growth. Only four of twenty six provinces which proved strong influence of financial intermediation on economic growth. Labor condition and average annual wages are not exogenous variables which explain growth due to financial intermediation in Indonesia. At least during 1987-1998."

"The main purpose of this study is to find the effect of budget deficit with foreign loans as source of funding on inflation and economic growth. This study focuses on transmission mechanism of budget deficit funding effects on inflation and economic growth. We use a specific simultaneous macroeconomic model which includes 17 behavioral equations and 18 identity equations with 6 blocks in this study, Two Stage Least Square (TSLS) method is employed to estimate the behavioral equations in the model. This study use Indonesia secondary economic data from 1970 to 2003. Econometric tests are performed to produce BLUE estimator. This study also use stochastic simulation with 10000 replications to simulate policy.The results show that using foreign loan to fund budget deficit increases both economic growth and inflation. This result is also supported by the simulation results which show that increase in the proceeds of new foreign loan increases reserves which in turn increase primary money/money supply/monetary base. Interaction of monetary base with money multiplier then increases price level. increase in capital in flow from increase in foreign loan increases government spending which also increases government spending increases in the government spending then add to government capital stock so that economic growth also increases."

"Studi ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui dampak dari ketersediaan infrastruktur jalan, listrik, dan air terhadap perkembangan ekonomi regional di Indonesia melalui beberapa analisis regresi panel data dengan menggunakan data yang terdiri dari 33 provinsi pada periode 2006 hingga 2016. Selain itu, dilakukan juga analisis dengan menggunakan regresi panel data dinamik untuk mengetahui konvergensi antarprovinsi selama periode studi. Berdasarkan hasil analisis model fixed effects, jumlah distribusi listrik per kapita dan persentase rumah tangga dengan akses air minum layak (proxy untuk variabel infrastruktur listrik dan air) memiliki dampak yang positif dan signifikan terhadap ekonomi regional. Di sisi lain, hasil analisis regresi panel data dinamik dengan menggunakan estimator Arellano-Bond menunjukkan bahwa panjang jalan per kapita dan jumlah distribusi listrik per kapita (proxy untuk variabel jalan dan listrik) memiliki dampak yang positif dan signifikan terhadap ekonomi regional dengan elastisitas sebesar 0.134 dan 0.120, berturut-turut. Hasil analisis juga menunjukkan terjadinya conditional β-convergence antarprovinsi. Dengan kata lain, provinsi dengan pendapatan lebih rendah cendering memiliki pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih tinggi dibandingan provinsi dengan pendapatan lebih tinggi selama periode studi. Hasil-hasil tersebut menunjukkan peran penting dari infrastruktur dalam pembangunan ekonomi regional.

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By conducting several panel data regression analyses with a panel data set of 33 provinces from 2006 to 2016, this study tries to analyze the effects of road, electricity and water infrastructures on regional economic development in Indonesia. It also examines, using the dynamic panel data regression model, whether there is regional income convergence across provinces over the study period. According to the result of the fixed effects analysis, per capita amount of electricity and the proportion of households with access to safe water (proxies for electricity and water infrastructures) are found to have significant and positive effects on regional economy. On the other hand, according to the result of the dynamic panel regression analysis by the Arellano-Bond estimator, per capita road length and per capita amount of electricity (proxies for road and electricity infrastructures) are found to have significant and positive effects on regional economy with the elasticities of 0.134 and 0.120, respectively. This study also found that there is a conditional β-convergence across provinces. That is, poorer provinces tend to grow faster than richer provinces over the study period. These observations confirm the importance of infrastructures in the development of regional economy."

"From January 1, 2001, when new autonomy laws were implemented, lndonesia began to move toward decentralization of what had been a highly decentralized. This policy adopts two complimentary laws. Law No.22/1999, which basically the devolution policy, has been accompanied by La No.25/1999, which basically reflect that decentralization policy in Indonesia has adopted the concept of ?money follows function?.Law No.25/1999 describe the fiscal decentralization process that will create a new intergovernmental transfer scheme between the central government and local government. Some of items in the law were really new ones such as the natural resources revenue sharing, income tax sharing, general allocation fund (OAF) and specifics allocation fund (SAF). The policies oftax and natural resource revenue sharing can result in fiscal imbalance among regions. Tax and natural resources revenue sharing will benefit only to urbanized and natural resources rich regions Because of it, Central Government created General Allocation Funds. This fund has block grant characteristic and will be given to regions by fiscal gap conception. The purpose is to equalize fiscal capacity among regions that in turn also can reduce disparity among them.The Simultaneous Macro Econometric Model is made for analyzing the fiscal decentralization impact to economic growth and region disparity. The policy simulation in this model used transfer fund from central government such as Tax Revenue Sharing, Natural Resource Revenue Sharing and General Allocation Fund. The simulation is carried out to see the optimality of various possible existing policies. The optimality is measured by evaluating the high rate of economic growth and low disparity."

"AbstractThis paper presents an analysis of the effect of fiscal policy in Indonesia based on a VAR approach. Fiscal policy shocks are identified as a structural residuals related to unexpected government expenditures and tax revenues. Impulse responses are then used to simulate the dynamic response of key macroeconomics variables of shocks. The analysis shows that GDP responses negatively to tax shocks, and positively to expenditure shock. Moreover, disposable income and private consumptionreact negatively to taxation and positively to government expenditures. Altogether the results are consistent with that of Keynesian models."

"Penelitian ini memberikan bukti empiris terjadinya konvergensi pertumbuhan ekonomi antara provinsi di Indonesia. Model pertumbuhan neoklasik menyatakan bahwa dalam jangka panjang perekonomian akan mengalami konvergensi, di mana perekonomian daerah miskin akan tumbuh lebih cepat dibandingkan perekonomian daerah kaya (β-convergence). Kondisi tersebut kemudian mendorong terjadinya penurunan dispersi antar provinsi (σ-convergence). Analisis σ-convergence dilakukan dengan menghitung standar deviasi dari log pendapatan per kapita, sedangkan analisa β-convergence dilakukan melalui model absolute convergence dan conditional convergence. Model absolute convergence mencoba melihat pengaruh initial PDRB per capita terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, sedangkan model conditional convergence mencoba menambahkan sumber pertumbuhan lainnya. Hasil estimasi σ-convergence dan β-convergence menunjukkan terjadinya konvergensi pertumbuhan ekonomi antar-provinsi. β-convergence dengan menggunakan data panel (1995-2005) yang menunjukan laju konvergensi adalah sebesar 2% per tahun (absolute convergence), sedangkan hasil estimasi model conditional convergence menunjukan laju konvergensi sebesar 4.8% per tahun saat variabel lain seperti modal noninfrastrktur, tenaga kerja dan modal infrastruktur disertakan dalam estimasi. Saat variabel dummy krisis dan population growth turut dimasukan, hasil menunjukkan laju konvergensi melambat (2.9% per tahun), dan mengalami peningkatan (3% per tahun) saat variabel dummy otonomi daerah dimasukkan dalam model."

"This study shows that an increase in economic funding that comes from saving fund in the banking sector doesn?t have a full impact on the slower economic growth in the subsequent period as Keynesian believes. Tests result show that a decrease in public saving in banking sector reflects an increase in the confidence of the economic agents on the future economic prospects which then drives the economic growth. This result is supported by the negative and significant relationship of economic growth and public saving in the form of individual rupiah denominated deposit (time deposits?). Using Permanent Income Hypothesis argument the result indicates that we can use individual deposit as one of the leading indicators of future economic growth based on signficant finding until 2 trimester in the future. On the other hand positive and significant relationship of economic growth and public saving which is proposed by the Keynesian only applied to rupiah denominated individual and firm demand deposit and individual saving account."

"AbstractWe try to analyze the impact of Chinese Textile and Garment (T&G) imports, and the internal and external factors to the firm survival and growth of T&G industry in Indonesia, for the period study of 2002 to 2007. Probit regression model is used to analyze the impact of Chinese imports to the survival of firm, while OLS regression model is used to analyze its growth. It shows that the ability of firms' survival is influenced by the internal and external factors. The Chinese imports give positive impact to the firms' survival ability. On the other hand, firm's growth is only affected by its internal characteristics, while the impact of Chinese imports is proven not significant. The Heckman test result stated that there are no correlation between firms' ability to survive and the firm growth behavior.AbstrakStudi ini menganalisis dampak dari penetrasi impor TPT Cina, faktor internal, serta faktor eksternal terhadap kebertahanan dan pertumbuhan perusahaan dalam industri TPT Indonesia periode tahun 2002-2007. Metode probit regression digunakan untuk mengetahui dampak impor Cina terhadap kebertahanan perusahaan, sementara regresi linear sederhana (OLS) digunakan untuk menganalisis pertumbuhannya. Ditemukan bahwa kebertahanan perusahaan dipengaruhi oleh karakteristik internal dan eksternal, serta impor Cina yang memberikan dampak positif. Sementara pertumbuhan perusahaan hanya dipengaruhi oleh faktor internal, di mana impor Cina tidak memberikan dampak signikan. Hasil pengujian Heckman menyatakan tidak ada indikasi hubungan antara kebertahanan perusahaan dengan perilaku pertumbuhannya."