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"AbstractThe stable fluctuation of Rp against the US$ during the free floating exchange rate regime in 2002-2007 raises the existence of fear of floating exchange rate phenomenon in Indonesia. The GARCH method is use to verify this phenomenon. Moreover, Time Varying Parameter and Error Correction Mechanism method shows the economic reason behind the Monetary Authoritys response in stabilizing rupiah. Depreciation and increasing volatility of Rupiah raises ination and bank Non-Performing Loans, while appreciation and increasing volatility of Rupiah, reduce the net export. Furthermore, Vector Autoregressive confirms the Monetary Authority respond to exchange rate shock through the interest rate policy for four months and through the foreign reserves policy for two months."

"As the result of global financial liberalization there is a tendency for increasing number of portfolio INVESTMENT which in turn dominates the domestic financial market. This study aims to elaborate the effect of shortterm portfolio investment flows to the exchange rate. Using the method of Vector Auto Regressive (VAR), this study employs quarterly data from 1997 to 2007.The result shows that both real and nominal exchange rates are affected by the short-term portfolio investment flows dominantly. In particular the short-term portfolio investment inflows strengthen the local currency. Secondly, in other direction short-term portfolio investment flows also affected by both real and nominal exchange rate. Thirdly, the impact of shortterm portfolio investment flows to change of nominal exchange rate is temporarily due to adjustment toward equilibrium, but not for real exchange rate."

"There are several factors influencing the financial system stability, namely the internal and the external factors. The occurrence of stock price volatility internationally, the contagion effects and the spillover effects are some external factors that have effect on the financial system stability. This research aims to know the dynamic relationship of regional and global stocks market in international financial system, and then do the analysis of the occurrence of contagion effects and spillover effects on stock price, and see their influence on domestic economics, monetary policy and financial system stability, by GARCH-VAR model.The results of this research indicate that there are some domination of the mature financial market to regional and domestic market. Moreover, the nearby regional stock price index also have a big contribution to the movement of other regional stock price market. The impact of stock price volatility to the IDR exchange rates volatility is relatively small, but not to the price level which is significantly large. Data analysis shows that there is contagion effects in stock market, but the spillover effect from stock price volatility to exchange rates volatility does not occur."

"The relationship between exchange rate volatility and export performance has been scrutinized by many economists since Bretton Wood System collapsed in 1971. Although most of the results show that there is a negative relationship between exchange rate volatility and export performance, we also find that some studies show a positive one. This study used some Indonesian group of commodities data to find the relationship between exchange rate volatility and export performance.While General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) was used to calculate exchange rate volatility, this study used Pesharan & Shin ARDL cointegration test in order to find long run relationship between export performance and exchange rate volatility. Only 2 out of 7 equations tested show a long run relationship between exchange rate volatility an export performance and the signs are positive."

"Terjadinya krisis di tahun 1997 memaksa bank sentral untuk melepaskan rezim nilai tukar tetap dan mengubahnya menjadi rezim nilai tukar mengambang. Perubahan tersebut menyebabkan timbulnya resiko nilai tukar di dalam perekonomian, sehingga meningkatkan resiko kegiatan usaha.Perubahan nilai tukar akan mempengaruhi kondisi neraca perbankan dan perusahaan, yang akhirnya berpengaruh pula pada keputusan pemberian kredit. Di lain pihak, perubahan kondisi neraca ditambah dengan selisih berbagai alternatif biaya pendanaan, akan berpengaruh pada keputusan pengajuan permohonan kredit perusahaan.Penelitian ini kemudian akan berusaha untuk melihat, pertama, pengaruh depresiasi nilai tukar terhadap penurunan aliran kredit; kedua, pengaruh kebijakan moneter ketat terhadap penurunan permintaan kredit dan atau peningkatan penawaran kredit; ketiga, pengaruh depresiasi nilai tukar pada efektivitas mekanisme transmisi kebijakan moneter melalui jalur kredit perbankan dan jalur kredit luas.Dengan dekomposisi varians dan IFF metode VAR, ditemukan bahwa, pertama, depresiasi nilai tukar menurunkan aliran kredit. Kedua, kebijakan moneter ketat direspon lebih cepat oleh penurunan permintaan kredit dibandingkan peningkatan penawaran kredit. Ketiga, perubahan nilai tukar dan kurang responsifnya penawaran kredit terhadap kebijakan moneter, menyebabkan mekanisme transmisi kebijakan moneter melalui jalur kredit perbankan tidak efektf. Keempat, dengan responsifnya permintaan kredit terhadap perubahan kebijakan moneter menyebabkan efektifnya jalur kredit luas."

"AbstractThis paper presents an analysis of the effect of fiscal policy in Indonesia based on a VAR approach. Fiscal policy shocks are identified as a structural residuals related to unexpected government expenditures and tax revenues. Impulse responses are then used to simulate the dynamic response of key macroeconomics variables of shocks. The analysis shows that GDP responses negatively to tax shocks, and positively to expenditure shock. Moreover, disposable income and private consumptionreact negatively to taxation and positively to government expenditures. Altogether the results are consistent with that of Keynesian models."

"AbstractThis research is conducted to investigate the correlation of fiscal deficit to economic growth in Indonesia during 1990-2012. Contribution of this study is the use of cointegration and Error Correction Model, we confirmed mainstream macroeconomic theory where fiscal deficit has positive and signicant impact to economic growth. Government is recommended to undertake fiscal deficit within the 3% boundary allowed by State Budget Law.AbstrakStudi ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui pengaruh defisit fiskal terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia tahun 1990-2012. Kontribusi studi ini adalah pengunaan metode kointegrasi dengan Error Correction Model. Kami mengonfirmasi hipotesa teori dan menemukan defisit fiskal berdampak positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pemerintah disarankan untuk mengambil kebijakan fiskal yang ekspansif dengan memperhatikan undang-undang Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara yang menetapkan maksimal defisit sebesar 3%."

"Makalah ini mengevaluasi perbedaan antara rata-rata pendidikan minimal yang dibutuhkan oleh suatu jenis pekerjaan dan pendidikan pekerja yang bekerja di jenis pekerjaan tersebut. Overeducation terjadi apabila pendidikan pekerja di jenis pekerjaan tertentu lebih tinggi dari yang dibutuhkan oleh jenis pekerjaan tersebut. Dengan menggunakan sample pekerja W1, sektor formal dari data Sakernas 1996, 1999, dan 2002, hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa persentase pekerja cenderung meningkat dari tahun ke tahun. Hasil estimasi juga menunjukkan dampak pendidikan meningkatkan penghasilan dan pekerja overeducated berpengaruh signifikan pada penghasilan pekerja meskipun telah dikontrol oleh usia, jenis kelamin, jam kerja serta karakteristik individu lainnya."

"The aim of this paper was to determine the effect of public sector expenditure to economic growth and poverty in all provinces in Indonesia during period 2006 to 2008. Using Full Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML) approach, the result showed that public sector expenditure on education and health sector had significant effect inboosting economic growth. In addition, the output produced by the education and health sector, both of the output had significant effect on economic growth. While, public sector expenditure on infrastructure had insignificant effect. Furthermore, this study showed that public sector expenditure on education and health also had significant effect in reducing the number of poor through the outcome such as form of school enrollment, literacy, infant mortality and life expectancy. On the other hand, the effect of economic growth to reduce the number of poor was not significant."

"From January 1, 2001, when new autonomy laws were implemented, lndonesia began to move toward decentralization of what had been a highly decentralized. This policy adopts two complimentary laws. Law No.22/1999, which basically the devolution policy, has been accompanied by La No.25/1999, which basically reflect that decentralization policy in Indonesia has adopted the concept of ?money follows function?.Law No.25/1999 describe the fiscal decentralization process that will create a new intergovernmental transfer scheme between the central government and local government. Some of items in the law were really new ones such as the natural resources revenue sharing, income tax sharing, general allocation fund (OAF) and specifics allocation fund (SAF). The policies oftax and natural resource revenue sharing can result in fiscal imbalance among regions. Tax and natural resources revenue sharing will benefit only to urbanized and natural resources rich regions Because of it, Central Government created General Allocation Funds. This fund has block grant characteristic and will be given to regions by fiscal gap conception. The purpose is to equalize fiscal capacity among regions that in turn also can reduce disparity among them.The Simultaneous Macro Econometric Model is made for analyzing the fiscal decentralization impact to economic growth and region disparity. The policy simulation in this model used transfer fund from central government such as Tax Revenue Sharing, Natural Resource Revenue Sharing and General Allocation Fund. The simulation is carried out to see the optimality of various possible existing policies. The optimality is measured by evaluating the high rate of economic growth and low disparity."