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"AbstractWe try to analyze the impact of Chinese Textile and Garment (T&G) imports, and the internal and external factors to the firm survival and growth of T&G industry in Indonesia, for the period study of 2002 to 2007. Probit regression model is used to analyze the impact of Chinese imports to the survival of firm, while OLS regression model is used to analyze its growth. It shows that the ability of firms' survival is influenced by the internal and external factors. The Chinese imports give positive impact to the firms' survival ability. On the other hand, firm's growth is only affected by its internal characteristics, while the impact of Chinese imports is proven not significant. The Heckman test result stated that there are no correlation between firms' ability to survive and the firm growth behavior.AbstrakStudi ini menganalisis dampak dari penetrasi impor TPT Cina, faktor internal, serta faktor eksternal terhadap kebertahanan dan pertumbuhan perusahaan dalam industri TPT Indonesia periode tahun 2002-2007. Metode probit regression digunakan untuk mengetahui dampak impor Cina terhadap kebertahanan perusahaan, sementara regresi linear sederhana (OLS) digunakan untuk menganalisis pertumbuhannya. Ditemukan bahwa kebertahanan perusahaan dipengaruhi oleh karakteristik internal dan eksternal, serta impor Cina yang memberikan dampak positif. Sementara pertumbuhan perusahaan hanya dipengaruhi oleh faktor internal, di mana impor Cina tidak memberikan dampak signikan. Hasil pengujian Heckman menyatakan tidak ada indikasi hubungan antara kebertahanan perusahaan dengan perilaku pertumbuhannya."

"Economic growth give some hope on labor absorbtion in economic sectors. It can be seen from trends after crisis that unemployement is rising overtime. This study tends to look on structural impact of growth in industrial and trade sector to labor absorption in Indonesia. The result is labor absorption projection in economic sectors within 2003-2007"

"Combining regional growth model and integration of financial institution model, this paper evaluates whether intermediary development influences growth in Indonesia. Recent research has proved that not only banks development influence economic growth positively but also its exogenous components.However, there are several different assumptions during adopt this model in Indonesia. Especially regional approach is differing than national approach in growth model. The point is the existence of intermediary integration across region whit causes the economic agent move freely within a nation.The data show that integration of financial intermediation was not always associated with economic growth. Only four of twenty six provinces which proved strong influence of financial intermediation on economic growth. Labor condition and average annual wages are not exogenous variables which explain growth due to financial intermediation in Indonesia. At least during 1987-1998."

"The main purpose of this study is to find the effect of budget deficit with foreign loans as source of funding on inflation and economic growth. This study focuses on transmission mechanism of budget deficit funding effects on inflation and economic growth. We use a specific simultaneous macroeconomic model which includes 17 behavioral equations and 18 identity equations with 6 blocks in this study, Two Stage Least Square (TSLS) method is employed to estimate the behavioral equations in the model. This study use Indonesia secondary economic data from 1970 to 2003. Econometric tests are performed to produce BLUE estimator. This study also use stochastic simulation with 10000 replications to simulate policy.The results show that using foreign loan to fund budget deficit increases both economic growth and inflation. This result is also supported by the simulation results which show that increase in the proceeds of new foreign loan increases reserves which in turn increase primary money/money supply/monetary base. Interaction of monetary base with money multiplier then increases price level. increase in capital in flow from increase in foreign loan increases government spending which also increases government spending increases in the government spending then add to government capital stock so that economic growth also increases."

"From January 1, 2001, when new autonomy laws were implemented, lndonesia began to move toward decentralization of what had been a highly decentralized. This policy adopts two complimentary laws. Law No.22/1999, which basically the devolution policy, has been accompanied by La No.25/1999, which basically reflect that decentralization policy in Indonesia has adopted the concept of ?money follows function?.Law No.25/1999 describe the fiscal decentralization process that will create a new intergovernmental transfer scheme between the central government and local government. Some of items in the law were really new ones such as the natural resources revenue sharing, income tax sharing, general allocation fund (OAF) and specifics allocation fund (SAF). The policies oftax and natural resource revenue sharing can result in fiscal imbalance among regions. Tax and natural resources revenue sharing will benefit only to urbanized and natural resources rich regions Because of it, Central Government created General Allocation Funds. This fund has block grant characteristic and will be given to regions by fiscal gap conception. The purpose is to equalize fiscal capacity among regions that in turn also can reduce disparity among them.The Simultaneous Macro Econometric Model is made for analyzing the fiscal decentralization impact to economic growth and region disparity. The policy simulation in this model used transfer fund from central government such as Tax Revenue Sharing, Natural Resource Revenue Sharing and General Allocation Fund. The simulation is carried out to see the optimality of various possible existing policies. The optimality is measured by evaluating the high rate of economic growth and low disparity."

"AbstractThis paper presents an analysis of the effect of fiscal policy in Indonesia based on a VAR approach. Fiscal policy shocks are identified as a structural residuals related to unexpected government expenditures and tax revenues. Impulse responses are then used to simulate the dynamic response of key macroeconomics variables of shocks. The analysis shows that GDP responses negatively to tax shocks, and positively to expenditure shock. Moreover, disposable income and private consumptionreact negatively to taxation and positively to government expenditures. Altogether the results are consistent with that of Keynesian models."

"Tesis ini menganalisa mengenai dampak pemberlakuan ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) terhadap perdagangan sektor tekstil dan produk tekstil (TPT) di Indonesia. Perjanjian ACFTA diberlakukan secara penuh bagi Indonesia pada bulan Januari 2010. Secara keseluruhan, pemberlakuan ACFTA membawa berbagai dampak, baik itu positif maupun negatif. Di sektor TPT sendiri, pemberlakuan ACFTA ini membawa berbagai permasalahan bagi Indonesia. Sektor TPT memainkan peranan penting dalam membangun perekonomian di Indonesia, karena merupakan salah satu sektor yang menjadi penyumbang devisa negara dan membuka lapangan kerja yang besar alias padat karya. Kondisi TPT Indonesia yang sejak awal tidak stabil semakin terpuruk dengan banyaknya pabrik tekstil yang tutup sehingga meningkatkan angka pengangguran. Produsen TPT pun beralih menjadi pedagang sehingga memicu gejala deindustrialisasi. Oleh karena itu, pemerintah Indonesia perlu membuat kebijakan- kebijakan guna melindungi sektor TPT dari dampak pemberlakuan ACFTA. Penelitian yang dilakukan dalam penulisan tesis ini adalah penelitian yuridis normatif untuk memahami penerapan norma-norma hukum terhadap fakta-fakta.

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This thesis analyzes the impact of the implementation of ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) on textiles and apparel products sector in Indonesia. ACFTA Agreement is fully implemented in Indonesia in January 2010. Overall, the implementation of ACFTA brings a variety of impacts, both positive and negative. In TPT sector, the implementation of ACFTA brings a variety of problems for Indonesia. The TPT sector plays an important role in building the economy of Indonesia, because it is one of the sectors that contributes to foreign exchange and opens large employment or labor-intensive. Indonesian TPT condition that is unstable from the beginning is getting worse by the closing of many textile factories, thus increasing the unemployment rate. Textile producers were turning into traders that trigger the symptom of de-industrialization. Therefore, the Government of Indonesia needs to create policies to protect textile and apparel product sector from the impact of the implementation of ACFTA. Research conducted in this thesis is normative juridical research to understand the application of legal norms to the facts."

"AbstractIndonesia Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJEPA) is the first bilateral economic agreement for Indonesia. IJEPA is expected to increase Indonesia manufacture industry competition because the establishment of USDFS and MIDEC. Post IJEPA, Price-cost margins (PCM) fluctuated. PCM has been generally used as a competition indicator, because PCM related to average profit of an industry. This study uses panel data of large and small industry within 2004-2012 periods. This study conclude that IJEPA able to make PCM of manufacture industry fall through efficiency of input factors use, the cost of materials price downfall, and economies of scale in certain industries.AbstrakIndonesia Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJEPA) merupakan perjanjian kerja sama ekonomi bilateral yang pertama untuk Indonesia. IJEPA diharapkan mampu meningkatkan kompetisi industri manufaktur karena disepakatinya fasilitas khusus untuk peningkatan kapasitas dan daya saing industri manufaktur, yaitu USDFS dan MIDEC. Setelah IJEPA, Price-cost Margins (PCM) Indonesia berfluktuasi. PCM digunakan sebagai indikator persaingan, dikarenakan berhubungan dengan keuntungan rata-rata di sebuah industri. Studi ini menggunakan data panel industri besar dan sedang periode 2004-2012. Dari studi ini disimpulkan bahwa IJEPA mampu menurunkan PCM industri manufaktur Indonesia dengan efisiensi faktor input produksi, penurunan biaya bahan baku industri, dan pencapaian skala ekonomi pada industri tertentu."

"[Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) yang dilakukan Indonesia memiliki gross trade creation terhadap ekspor Tekstil dan Produk Tekstil (TPT) Indonesia, serta menentukan variabel lain yang memengaruhi kinerja ekspor TPT Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan commodity specific gravity model, dengan data panel yang terdiri dari data tahunan dari 2005 hingga 2013, dan 24 negara importir. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, ditemukan bahwa seluruh FTA memiliki gross trade creation yang cukup signifikan terhadap ekspor komoditas TPT Indonesia, khususnya ACFTA dan AKFTA. Sementara itu, variabel PDB Negara Importir, dan Nilai tukar merupakan beberapa faktor utama penentu kinerja ekspor komoditas TPT Indonesia.;This study aims to determine whether the Indonesia?s Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) have gross trade creation to Indonesia?s Textiles And Textile Products exports, and to determine other variables that affect Indonesian textile exports performance. This study using the commodity specific gravity model, with a panel data from 2005 until 2013, and 24 importer countries. The result shows that all of the FTAs have a significant gross trade creation effect to the export of Indonesian textile commodities, particularly ACFTA and AKFTA. Meanwhile, Importers GDP, and Exchange Rate are some of the determining factor for the exports performance of Indonesia?s textile commodities;This study aims to determine whether the Indonesia?s Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) have gross trade creation to Indonesia?s Textiles And Textile Products exports, and to determine other variables that affect Indonesian textile exports performance. This study using the commodity specific gravity model, with a panel data from 2005 until 2013, and 24 importer countries. The result shows that all of the FTAs have a significant gross trade creation effect to the export of Indonesian textile commodities, particularly ACFTA and AKFTA. Meanwhile, Importers GDP, and Exchange Rate are some of the determining factor for the exports performance of Indonesia?s textile commodities, This study aims to determine whether the Indonesia’s Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) have gross trade creation to Indonesia’s Textiles And Textile Products exports, and to determine other variables that affect Indonesian textile exports performance. This study using the commodity specific gravity model, with a panel data from 2005 until 2013, and 24 importer countries. The result shows that all of the FTAs have a significant gross trade creation effect to the export of Indonesian textile commodities, particularly ACFTA and AKFTA. Meanwhile, Importers GDP, and Exchange Rate are some of the determining factor for the exports performance of Indonesia’s textile commodities]"

"The economic growth of the country is inseparable from the development of its financial sector. Therefore, this research attempted to prove the existence of causality between financial sector and economic growth in Indonesia using data between Q1 of 1996 to Q4 of 2006. The variables used as proxy for financial sector are monetization, private credit, total deposits, stock market capitalism, and stock market value traded?while the real GDP is used as a proxy for economic growth. This research aims to determine which variable is the most dominant influence in the shock given in causality result.This research methodology used Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger causality. VECM is used to find out the dominant variable that gave shock, while Granger causality is used to detect the causality between variables. Granger causality test shows the existence of one way causality between real GDP and private credit, total deposit, and stock market value traded. These causalities come from three sources. First, from real GDP to private credit; second, from real GDP to stock market value traded; and the last, from total deposit to real GDP. Meanwhile, VECM test shows the result that the economic growth can be a boosting factor for Indonesian financial sector growth. Moreover, the dominant variable in creating shock on economic growth is stock market value traded.The Granger causality estimation shows that there are one-way causalities between real GDP and private credit, total deposit, and stock market value traded."