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"This study analyze the influence of non-deliverable forward (NDF) and the spot rate of USD/IDR against Bank Indonesia reference rate, Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR). NDF which came earlier than JISDOR is used by the market participant as the reference rate. The simple method of NDF determination had a great impact on the volatility of the rupiah currency, pushing the Bank Indonesia to issue its own reference currency. JISDOR is an indication of the rates issued by Bank Indonesia as the reference rate for the foreign exchange market in domestic and overseas. The method of creating the reference rate is by weighting the average rate of real transactions through a monitoring system which is managed by the central bank. However, the question arises: what should be done by the monetary authority when there is a party outside the jurisdiction issued the NDF rate as a benchmark that may affect the domestic exchange rate of rupiah in accordance with the desired agenda of the party. We use OLS and ARCH/GARCH to see if independent variables have an influence on dependent variable. Granger Causality test is also used to observe whether there are any relations among the variables."

"ABSTRAKVolatilitas nilai tukar yang stabil diperlukan karena volatilitas yang tidak terjagamempunyai dampak yang besar bukan hanya terhadap sektor perekonomian tetapijuga sektor-sektor lainnya seperti sosial dan keamanan. Akan tetapi munculpertanyaan yaitu apa yang harus dilakukan oleh otoritas moneter ketika ada pihakdi luar juridiksinya mengeluarkan kurs NDF yang dapat mempengaruhi nilai tukarrupiah domestik sesuai dengan agenda yang diinginkan pihak yang bersangkutan.Di sisi lain, Bank Indonesia sebagai otoritas moneter mempunyai tugas untukmenjaga agar volatilitas kurs mata uang Rupiah berada pada level yang stabildengan berbagai instrumen kebijakan yang salah satunya adalah mengeluarkankurs acuan. Tesis ini akan menganalisis efektivitas implementasi kebijakanJakarta Interbank Spot Dolar Rate (JISDOR) sebagai kurs referensi terhadapvolatilitas kurs mata uang rupiah dengan menggunakan model regresi ARCH danGARCH.

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ABSTRACTA stable exchange rate volatility is required because uncontrollable fluctuationhad a great impact not only on the economic sector but also other sectors such associal and security. However, the question arises: what should be done by themonetary authority when there is a party outside the juridiction issued the NDFbenchmark exchange rate that may affect the domestic exchange rate of rupiah inaccordance with the desired agenda of the party. On the other hand, BankIndonesia as the monetary authority has a duty to keep the Rupiah exchange ratevolatility at a stable level with a wide range of policy instruments, one of which isissuing the reference exchange rate. This thesis will analyze the effectiveness ofpolicy implementation of the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) as areference rate against the rupiah exchange rate volatility using GARCH andARCH regression model."

"ABSTRAKWe offer new insights on the dynamics of the exchange rate interest rate differential for the case of G7 economies. We show that the nexus is better considered using anasymmetric model, as suggested by a host of previous studies. In addition, we find therole of accounting for structural breaks to be prominent. We also show differences in thenexus between euro and non-euro G7 countries, suggesting heterogeneous monetarypolicies. Thus, we document the strongest evidence for the sticky price hypothesis inJapan and lesser evidence in the euro countries and the United Kingdom, with Canadaconsistently revealing evidence for the flexible price hypothesis."

"Convergence in prices or returns of assets with similar characteristics indicates that the financialmarket is integrated with regional markets. This paper is the first that test of the movements ofinterest rates in ASEAN banking sector for the period 1990 - 2012. The empirical analysis is basedon a yearly panel of commercial bank interest rate data from 5 ASEAN countries, namely, Indonesia,Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. We assessed the degree and speed of interest rateconvergence using beta and sigma convergence method. The findings show that the difference andthe dispersion in the interbank rates have reduced since the Asian financial crisis and this trend hasbecome stronger after the Global financial crisis. The findings of this study confirm that interest ratesin the ASEAN banking sector are converging. This provides evidence that the ASEAN banking sectoris ready for financial integration."

"Convergence in prices or returns of assets with similar characteristics indicates that the financialmarket is integrated with regional markets. This paper is the first that test of the movements ofinterest rates in ASEAN banking sector for the period 1990 - 2012. The empirical analysis is basedon a yearly panel of commercial bank interest rate data from 5 ASEAN countries, namely, Indonesia,Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. We assessed the degree and speed of interest rateconvergence using beta and sigma convergence method. The findings show that the difference andthe dispersion in the interbank rates have reduced since the Asian financial crisis and this trend hasbecome stronger after the Global financial crisis. The findings of this study confirm that interest ratesin the ASEAN banking sector are converging. This provides evidence that the ASEAN banking sectoris ready for financial integration."

"Penelitian ini menganalisa determinan pilihan rezim nilai tukar dengan menggunakan variabel Optimum Currency Area, Political Economy, dan krisis selama periode 1991-2008. Dengan menggunakan metode probit cross-countries ditemukan bahwa terdapat perbedaan antara driving variables di dunia, negara maju dan negara berkembang. Untuk negara-negara di dunia, tingkat keterbukaan, economic development, financial development, inflasi, reserve dan tingkat kediktatoran signifikan sementara hasil regresi untuk negara berkembang menunjukkan bahwa variabel tingkat keterbukaan negara, financial development, inflasi, reserve dan tingkat kediktatoran berpengaruh secara signifikan dalam pemilihan rezim nilai tukar negara. Hasil yang jauh berbeda didapat dari hasil regresi negara maju. Pada estimasi ini, hanya economic development, financial development dan kekuatan kelompok produser sektor tradable yang secara signifikan mempengaruhi pemilihan rezim nilai tukar.

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This study examines the determinant of exchange rate regime choice with Optimum Currency, Political Economy dan crisis approach in a span of year 1991-2008. Using cross-countries probit method, this study find that there are differences between driving variable in world, developed and developing countries. The result shows that for world, openness, economic development, financial development, inflation, reserve, dictatorship are the significant determinant and for developing countries, openness, financial development, inflation, reserve and dictatorship are influenced significantly the countries exchange rate regime choice. Meanwhile, for developed countries, only economic development, financial development and power of tradable sector producer are the significant determinan of exchange rate regime choice."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak dari aliran modal masuk terhadap REER yang terjadi pada 6 negara Asia, meliputi Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Filipina, Cina dan India untuk periode 1990-2011 melalui 3 jenis aliran modal yaitu, PMA, investasi portofolio, investasi lainnya. Dengan menggunakan model yang dikembangkangkan Lartey (2007) dan metode panel Feasible Generalized Least Square, hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa investasi portofolio memiliki dampak apresiasi REER paling besar, diikuti oleh investasi lainnya dan PMA. Variabel makroekonomi derajat keterbukaan dan konsumsi pemerintah positif dan signifikan terhadap apresiasi REER.

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The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of capital inflows towards the REER, in a sample of 6 Asian countries, consisting of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Phillippines, China, and India from the year 1990-2011. By using the model developed by Lartey (2007) and Feasible Generalized Least Square regression, the results reveal that portofolio investment have the greatest REER appreciation effect towards the REER, followed by other investment and foregin direct investment (FDI). Macroeconomic variables such as trade openness and government consumption positively and significantly affect the REER appreciation."

"Anggaran pembangunan merupakan salah satu alat administrasi pemerintah untuk dapat mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. Meskipun demikian pada kenyataannya, kebijakan pengalokasian anggaran pembangunan tersebut tidaklah sepenuhnya didasarkan atas pertimbangan ekonomi.Di Provinsi DKI Jakarta, besarnya anggaran pembangunan yang dialokasikan pemerintah daerah dari tahun ke tahun senantiasa mengalami peningkatan. Untuk mengetahui seberapa besar dampak pengalokasian anggaran pembangunan tersebut terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Provinsi DKI Jakarta, maka dalam penelitian ini dilakukan regresi antara besarnya alokasi anggaran pembangunan terhadap pembentukan PDRB primer, PDRB sekunder dan PDRB tersier.Model yang digunakan, dikembangkan dari fungsi produksi Cobb-Douglas, dimana Modal (Capital = C) direpresentasikan oleh besarnya alokasi anggaran pembangunan, sedangkan tenaga kerja (Labor = L) adalah besarnya jumlah tenaga kerja pada masing-masing sektor perekonomian. Untuk melihat pola hubungan antara variable penelitian telah dilakukan regresi terhadap data time series dalam rentang waktu 16 tahun. Model regresi yang dipakai adalah regresi sederhana model log-log dengan pendugaan secara SUR (Seemingly Unrelated Regression).Secara keseluruhan hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bawa besarnya anggaran pembangunan yang dialokasikan pemerintah daerah khusus DKI Jakarta, secara signifikan berdampak positif terhadap pertumbuhan PDRB sektor sekunder dan PDRB tersier. Berdasarkan variable dummy periode kepemimpinan Gubernur Kepala Daerah, diketahui pula bahwa tingkat rata-rata dampak alokasi anggaran pembangunan terhadap pembentukan PDRB sekunder dan PDRB tersier yang tertinggi terjadi pada periode kepemimpinan Gubernur Sutiyoso (1998 - 2001).

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Development budget (anggaran pembangunan) is one among government's administration tools that can support economic growth. However in reality, the policy in allocating development budget is not entirely based on economic consideration.

In Jakarta, the amount of development budget allocated by local government was increasing from year to year. To find out how strong the impact of the development budget allocation toward economic growth of DKI Jakarta Province; therefore, regression was conducted in this research. Among others is the influence of development budget allocation toward the formation of gross regional domestic product (primary GRDP, secondary GRDP and tertiary GRDP).

The model used and developed is in the form of Cobb-Douglas production function, where Capital (C) is represented by the amount of development budget allocation; while, Labor (L) is the amount of labor in each economic sector. To observe the relationship pattern among research variables, was developed regression toward time series data within 16 years. Regression model used is the double log simple regression with Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR).

As a whole, the result of this research showed that the amount of development budget being allocated by local government particularly Jakarta is significantly having positive effects toward the formation of secondary and tertiary GRDP. Based on dummy variable, it was found out that the highest average rate of development budget allocation effects toward the formation of secondary and tertiary GRDP happened during the leadership period of Governor Sutiyoso (1998 - 2001)"

"Ritter and Welch (2002) explain there are two types of IPO firms, namely higher quality firms and lower quality firms. This research propose the third type, namely bad IPO firms which manipulate and force IPO underpricing. Bad IPO firms are subset of lower quality IPO firms that force false signal as higher quality firms. The false signal was hidden by managing post-IPO trading. Trading management are indirectly funded by using balance sheet cash. Hypothesis testing with the empirical model 1 was to confirm the role of CashRatio as the moderating variable that interact DER to affect IPO underpricing which originally was not. The findings support the predictions that interactive variable DER*CashRatio affect IPO underpricing. A managed trading had a non negative profits constraint so that selective post-IPO trading was conducted to cause trading imbalance observable as skewed trading volume (Skewness). Subsequent tests with the empirical model 2 was to confirm the role of Skewness as the moderating variable that interact VolRatio to affect post-IPO stock return (RGM) which originally was not. The findings support the predictions that interactive variable LnVolRatio*Skew affect RGM. Both findings confirm this research predictions on the possibility of manipulated IPO trading in Indonesia IPO 2009-2012."

"ABSTRAKEkosistem pantai dengan ketiga tipe sumberdayanya, yaitu laut, tambak dan sawah merupakan bagian yang tidak dapat dipisahkan dari kehidupan ekonomi sebagian besar penduduk Marunda di Pantai Utara Jakarta. Di dalam lingkungan bersangkutan, keseluruhan kegiatan ekonomi yang terdiri dari kegiatan produksi, distribusi dan konsumsi berlangsung atas dasar model pengetahuan kebudayaan yang diwariskan secara turun-temurun.Keterikatan yang sangat kuat pada bentuk-bentuk mata pencaharian yang sangat tergantung pada kondisi lingkungan alam di sekitarnya, menyebabkan timbulnya berbagai masalah sosial ekonomi dan sosial budaya, ketika lingkungan tersebut diambil--alih dan dirubah oleh kegiatan pembangunan kawasan industri Pusat Perkayuan Marunda (PPM).Kegiatan pembangunan PPM menyebabkan perubahan bentang alam yang ditandai dengan penyusutan lahan garapan penduduk yang semula tinggal di kawasan industri tersebut. Penyusutan lahan garapan tempat penduduk bersangkutan melakukan kegiatan mata pencaharian menimbulkan dampak terhadap keseluruhan sistem mata pencaharian mereka.Untuk menyesuaikan diri dengan kondisi perubahan lingkungan dan untuk menghadapi berbagai masalah yang timbul sehubungan dengan perubahan yang terjadi, penduduk dituntut mengembangkan upaya adaptasi, terutama berupa penyesuaian bentuk mata pencaharian dengan keadaan lingkungan yang ada setelah perubahan.Upaya adaptasi yang sebenarnya relatif dapat dianggap paling tepat dipilih untuk menanggapi perubahan lingkungan sumberdaya ekonomi di lingkungan kawasan industri PPM, adalah dengan melakukan diversifikasi mata pencaharian.Diversifikasi mata pencaharian pada bentuk-bentuk yang berbeda dengan bentuk-bentuk mata pencaharian semula sebagian besar penduduk Marunda, perlu dilakukan agar penduduk yang lingkungan sumberdaya ekonominya terkena akibat langsung kegiatan pembangunan PPM, dapat tetap memenuhi kebutuhan hidupnya tanpa terlalu tergantung pada lingkungan sumberdaya laut, sawah dan tambak di sekitarnya yang masih akan terus berubah, sejalan dengan kelanjutan proses pembangunan PPM. Akan tetapi, pilihan ini tidak dididukung oleh pengetahuan kebudayaan yang luas.Tingkat pendidikan sebagian besar penduduk Marunda yang relatif sangat rendah dan pengetahuan kebudayaan yang dimiliki semata-mata hanya berkisar pada lingkungan pantai di sekitarnya, menyebabkan keseluruhan perangkat pengetahuan kebudayaan mereka menjadi sangat terbatas, sehingga tidak mampu menghadapi perubahan orientasi ruang yang telah sangat berbeda kondisinya.Dari dua bentuk upaya adaptasi yang dikembangkan oleh penduduk setempat, yaitu mempertahankan bentuk mata pencaharian semula dan beralih ke bentuk mata pencaharian baru, tampaknya upaya mempertahan bentuk mata pencaharian sampai saat ini masih menjadi pilihan sebagian besar penduduk.Pilihan upaya adaptasi sebagian besar penduduk yang masih terikat pada lingkungan sumberdaya semula (laut, sawah dan tambak) akan dapat lebih memperburuk kondisi sosial ekonomi di masa yang akan datang, terutama pada saat proyek PPM mulai beroperasi, jika tidak segera dicari pemecahan dan penanggulangannya secara tepat dan terpadu.Tipe penelitian ini adalah deskriptif kualitatif yang di dukung oleh data kuantitatif dan dilengkapi oleh studi kasus. Secara keseluruhan, metode yang digunakan adalah metode kualitatif dan kuantitatif. Cara yang digunakan untuk memilih sampel adalah proportional random sampling, dengan jumlah responden sebanyak 120 orang dan jumlah informan kunci sebanyak enam orang di antara keseluruhan penduduk Marunda.Pengujian hipotesa dilakukan dengan menggunakan uji Chi-square (X2), sedangkan pengujian signifikansi perubahan dilakukan dengan menggunakan tes Mc Nemar. Perhitungan kekuatan hubungan dilakukan dengan menggunakan koefisien asosiasi Cramer (C) untuk variabel-variabel nominal dan dengan perhitungan koefisien korelasi pangkat d sommers (d y/x) untuk variabel-variabel ordinal.Studi ini dimaksudkan untuk melihat secara utuh kehidupan sosial-budaya dan sosial-ekonomi penduduk Marunda, khususnya aspek kehidupan ekonomi yang diwujudkan dalam sistem mata pencaharian, baik sebelum maupun sesudah adanya proyek pembangunan PPM. Setelah itu akan dilihat pula gambaran dampak yang timbul dari proses pembangunan kawasan industri tersebut (terutama pada tahap konstruksi) terhadap seluruh aspek kehidupan penduduk di. Kelurahan Marunda yang berkenaan dengan sistem mata pencaharian.Keseluruhan pengetahuan yang diperoleh, diharapkan dapat memberi masukan untuk penyusunan strategi perencanaan pengembangan lingkungan, khususnya pada tingkat lokal bagi pihak PPM dan pemerintah daerah DKI dalam upaya memperbaiki taraf hidup penduduk setempat dan penanggulangan berbagai masalah yang mungkin masih akan timbul. Bagi perencana pembangunan tingkat nasional, terutama yang bertanggungjawab pada proyek pembangunan kawasan industri sejenis, strategi perencanaan dan pengelolaan lingkungan dengan tetap memperhatikan kesejahteraan hidup penduduk di sekitar lokasi proyek juga dapat diterapkan di daerahdaerah lain di Indonesia yang sedang dan akan mengadapi masalah yang serupa dengan apa yang dewasa ini dialami penduduk Marunda.Hasil-hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa :1. Perubahan bentuk mata pencaharian sebagai upaya adaptasi yang dilakukan oleh sebagian penduduk relatif kecil (X²=43,02; C=0,36), apabila dibandingkan dengan perubahan lingkungan sumber daya ekonomi yang terjadi.2. Perubahan lingkungan sumberdaya ekonomi tidak langsung mempengaruhi pilihan bentuk mata pencaharian (X2=0,36; C=0,05).3. Pilihan bentuk mata pencaharian dipengaruhi oleh kemampuan adaptasi social dalam hubungan yang tergolong cukup kuat (C= 0,48).4. Pilihan bentuk mata pencaharian juga dipengaruhi oleh pengetahuan kebudayaan dalam hubungan yang kuat (C=0,55). Berarti lebih kuat daripada hubungan antara pilihan bentuk dengan kemampuan adaptasi sosial.5. Kemampuan adaptasi sosial dipengaruhi oleh perubahan lingkungan sumberdaya ekonomi dalam hubungan yang tergolong sedang dan bersifat negatif (d y/x = - 0,34).6. Kemampuan adaptasi sosial juga dipengaruhi oleh pengetahuan kebudayaan dalam hubungan yang tergolong kuat dan bersifat positif (d y/x = 0,59). Berarti hubungan yang ada lebih kuat daripada hubungan antara kemampuan adaptasi dengan perubahan lingkungan sumberdaya ekonomi.7. Diperlukan suatu kebijaksanaan terpadu agar pembangunan PPM yang mempunyai cakupan kepentingan tingkat nasional ini berhasil dilaksanakan tanpa harus mengorbankan kehidupan penduduk Marunda sebagai korban. Hal ini perlu dilakukan karena terdapat kecenderungan bahwa sebagian besar penduduk sulit merencanakan usaha atau bidang pekerjaan secara kongkrit di lingkungan yang masih akan terus berubah, dengan pengetahuan kebudayaan yang terbatas dan kemampuan adaptasi yang rendah.

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ABSTRACT

The coastal ecosystem which consists of the three types of natural sources namely the sea, fish farming and rice fields have been forming a most important aspect of living for most Marunda villagers who live in the northern coastal areas of Jakarta. The entire economical process consisting of production, distribution and consumption activities among these villagers have been passed on, through inheritance, from generation to generation.

The exclusive dependability on the traditional ways of earning a living, which entirely relies on the environmental condition, has brought along various socio-economical and socio-cultural problems when this area was reclaimed by the authority and changed through the activities of the new industrial area for "Pusat Perkayuan Marunda" (PPM).

The PPM development activities have changed the spatial range of nature, which is indicated by the shrinkage of cultivated land belonging to the indigenous people who previously lived in this area, before the industrial estate started. The shrinkage of cultivated land, which the indigenous people made a living from before, has caused changes to the entire system of their means of subsistence.

To adjust themselves to the environmental changes and all the various problems these changes have brought along, these villagers will have to develop an adaptive aptitude to the new environment, especially to the new condition.

The adaptive effort, which is considered probably, the most effective, to select for the economical environmental changes in the PPM industrial areas, is through the diversification means of subsistence activities.

The diversification of economical sources which vary from the original ones most of Marunda villagers used to have, should be designed in order that those villagers whose environmental economical sources are directly affected by the PPM activities can live on properly, without having to depend entirely on the sea fishing, rice fields and fish farming in the surrounding areas, which will continue changing in line with the PPM development processes in the future. However; this approach is not necessarily supported by adequate cultural knowledge.

The relatively low level of educational background that most of the Marunda villagers have, including their cultural knowledge, which is restricted to the surrounding coastal areas only, are the source of the incapacity for those villagers to adjust themselves to the entirely new living condition.

Of the two forms of adaptation efforts which the Marunda villagers are making, namely to stick to the traditional means of subsistence and to obtain new living sources, the former seems more preferable.

The preference of most villagers to stick to the traditional sources of living (sea, rice field and fish farms) could worsen the social economical condition in the future, especially when the PPM project begins operation and no accurate integrated solution and prevention steps are taken immediately.

This research is qualitative descriptive by nature and is supported with quantitative data obtained through various study cases. On the whole, the methods used are the qualitative and the quantitative ones. The sampling has been made based on the proportional random system, involving 120 respondents and 6 key sources of information from amongst the entire Marunda villagers.

The hypothetic test is done by use the chi-square (X2) method and the significance test using the McNemar Method. The calculation of relativity strength was done using Cramer's association coefficient (C) for nominal variables and correlative coefficient calculation square d Sommers (d y/x) for ordinal variables.

The purpose of this study is to see and analyze the Marunda villagers' socio cultural and socio economical lives as a whole, in particular the economical aspect behavior, which is reflected in the means of subsistence system.

This research is intended to provide additional information that could be used in setting up the environmental development planning strategies, particularly for the PPM Project Officer and the Jakarta Municipality Office (DKI) in an effort to improve the standard of living of the Marunda villagers and tackle future problems. In addition, this information could also be used by the government authorities, who are dealing with development of similar industrial projects and the environmental planning and development strategies for other areas in Indonesia, which are, or will be facing similar environmental problems which the Marunda villagers are experiencing presently.

The results of this research indicate that:

1. The means of subsistence changes as an adaptation effort is relatively smaller than the economical source environmental changes (X2=43,02; C=0,36).

2. The economical source environmental change does not directly influence the choice of the means of subsistence form (x2=0,36; C=0,05)

3. The means of subsistence form choices are influenced by the social adaptation ability in strong relation (C = 0,48)

4. The means of subsistence form choice is also influenced by the cultural knowledge in strong relation (C = 0,05). Thus, a relation between the choices of form of the means of subsistence as compare to social adaptation ability.

5. The social adaptation ability is influence by the changing of environmental economical source in negative and average relation (d y/x = - 0,34).

6. The social adaptation ability is also influenced by the cultural knowledge in the positive and strong relation (d y/x = 0,59). It means that this relation is stronger than the relation between social adaptation ability and the environmental economical source change.

7. An integrated policy is needed in order that PPM development, which is of a National magnitude level, can be successfully implemented without sacrificing the way of life of Marunda's villagers as victims. This is to be implemented because there is a tendency that some of the villagers are unable to plan as to how to make a living, or choose a field of work in reality, due to the limited cultural knowledge and low level adaptation ability, in an environment which is still constantly changing."