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"The paper examines the interaction of fiscal and monetary policy and the effectiveness of Inflaction Targetting Framework (ITF) using vector Autoregression (VAR) method in Indonesia from 2000 to 2013. The study uses model that is estimated from the Nordhaus approach and the secondary data obtained from Federal Reserve St.Lois (FRED) and CEIC. The study shows the absence of fiscal dominance in Indonesia and the ITF is moderately effective in achieving targeted inflation rate. Tightening monetary policy by bank Indonesia is able to affect almost 30 per-cent the change in inflation variability after two year. Expansionary fiscal policy is only able to reduce the unemployment in a very short term, which will potentially lead to inflation. The results suggest that in a short term the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy is needed and effective to archieve lower unemployment and minimize the gap between the targeted and actual inflation . "

"ABSTRAKTesis ini bertujuan untuk menganalisa interaksi kebijakan moneter dan fiskal diIndonesia dalam dua periode sub-sampel yang ditandai dengan diberlakukannyaUndang-Undang Nomor 23 Tahun 1999 tentang Bank Indonesia. Hasil darianalisa Vektor Autoregresi yang menyertakan lima variabel ekonomi makro ini(antara lain, tingkat pertumbuhan riil Produk Domestik Bruto, tingkat surplusfiscal, suku bunga SBI 1 bulan, tingkat inflasi, dan tingkat pertumbuhan kursRupiah atas Dollar Amerika Serikat) menunjukkan bahwa status independen BankIndonesia merubah interaksi antara kebijakan moneter dan fiskal, sebagaimanahalnya dengan cara pembuat kebijakan tersebut terhadap performa variabel makroekonomi lainnya.

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ABSTRACTThe purpose of this study is to analyze the monetary and fiscal policy interactionin Indonesia in the two sub-sample periods which was marked by the enactment ofAct Number 23 in 1999. Using a Vector Autoregression analysis whichincorporating macroeconomics variables, the results show that the independencestatus of the central bank of Indonesia which given by the new law changes theinteractions of monetary and fiscal policy, as well as the way the policymakersinfluencing the performance of targeted variables."

"Jumlah penelitian yang melakukan observasi terhadap bagaimana otoritas moneter dan fiskal berinteraksi sudah banyak, bahkan yang dilakukan di Indonesia. Penelitian ? penelitian tersebut menemukan konsensus akan pentingnya koordinasi antara otoritas moneter dan fiskal untuk mencapai tingkat inflasi yang optimal dan pertumbuhan ekonomi serta meminimalisasi kerugian kesejahteraan secara total. Namun, belum ada penelitian yang mencari tingkat optimal dari kebijakan moneter dan fiskal dengan mempertimbangkan interaksi kedua kebijakan tersebut. Dalam model teori permainan nonkooperatif, skripsi ini menggunakan fungsi kerugian dari kebijakan moneter yang menggunakan tingkat suku bunga SBI sebagai instrumen kebijakan moneter, dan dari kebijakan fiskal yang menggunakan pengeluaran pemerintah sebagai instrumennya, sebagai imbal hasil dari masing ? masing otoritas. Secara umum, hasil penelitian mengungkapkan bahwa tingkat suku bunga SBI dan pengeluaran pemerintah actual masih berada pada titik non ekuilibrium nash (nash equilibrium) dan non ekuilibrium pareto (pareto equilibrium). Oleh karena itu, kebijakan moneter dan fiskal yang diterapkan masih dapat diperbaiki, terutama pemerataan pengeluaran pemerintah sepanjang tahun, seperti perbaikan penyerapan anggaran pemerintah pada kuartal kedua dan menurunkannya di kuartal ketiga, serta menurunkan tingkat suku bunga SBI.

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Researches on how monetary and fiscal authority interact and should interact have been abundant, even in Indonesia. One consensus that converges from those researches is the importance of coordination between monetary and fiscal authority to have optimal inflation rate and economic growth and minimize welfare loss. What had not yet been observed is the optimal level of the monetary and fiscal policy in regards of monetary and fiscal policy interaction, which is the focus on this research paper. In non - cooperative game theory model, we used loss function of monetary policy which uses SBI rate as its instruments, and fiscal policies with government spending as its tools, as the payoff for each authority. In general, the result shows that the actual SBI rate and government expenditure yielded in non ? Nash Equilibrium and non - Pareto Equilibrium. Thus, there is much room to improve the policies, especially smoothing of government expenditure throughout the year, i.e. improving the government expenditure absorption in the second quarter and moderating it in the third and fourth quarter, and lowering the SBI rates."

"Kebijakan makro ekonomi yang dilakukan oleh otoritas fiskal dan moneter bertolak dari tujuan yang tidak searah. Sehingga dalam pelaksanaanya dibutuhkan suatu koordinasi yang selaras untuk menghasilkan suatu bauran kebijakan yang mampu meminimalkan adanya trade of tujuan. Terutama dalam menghadapi era interasi perekonomian global beserta segala keuntungan dan kekurangannya mengingat adanya potensi dampak negatif berupa krisis global yang sewaktu-waktu mengancam pertumbuhan dan kestabilan perekonomian domestik. Bagi negara berkembang dan perekonomian terbuka kecil, variabel- variabel makro ekonomi yang berasal dari asing secara signifikan mempengaruhi kinerja perekonomian dornestik. Tesis ini meneliti kombinasi kebijakan fiskal moneter di dalam menghadapi kondisi normal maupun guncangan perekonomian dengan menggunakan metode Tivo Stages Least Square (T SLS).

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Macroeconomic policy conducted by fiscal and monetary authority come out from a very different type of objectives. Concerning this fact, minimizing trade off is a must to make an optimal policy mix, and this will only achieved by forming a simultaneous policy coordination to between those authority. In the global economic integration era, domestic economic performance must be influenced world economic condition. Especially its negative impact such as global crisis potency that could be emerge in unpredictable moment, has made it become more important to create a jointly optimal fiscal and monetary coordination for ensuring and protecting domestic economic performance from this bad impact such as capital outflow. As an emerging country and a small open economy, Indonesian economy significanty influenced by many economic variables that came Horn the rest of thc world. This thesis characterises the jointly optimal fiscal and monetary policy combination both in a nonnal economic condition and in a crises by using two stages least squares (T SLS) method."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh kebijakan fiskal dan moneter yang diproyeksikan oleh variabel penerimaan/pendapatan negara, pengeluaran pemerintah/belanja negara, tingkat inflasi dan tingkat suku bunga terhadap tingkat pengembalian saham di Indonesia yang diproyeksikan melalui return atau pengembalian IHSG. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder yang diambil dari berbagai sumber dalam bentuk data bulanan dalam kurun waktu 2015 s.d. 2019. Metode analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah regresi linear berganda untuk melihat pengaruh semua variabel independen terhadap variabel dependen. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa, variabel kebijakan fiskal berupa pendapatan negara, pengeluaran pemerintah, inflasi dan suku bunga secara bersama-sama dapat menjelaskan tingkat pengembalian saham di Indonesia periode 2015 s.d. 2019. Selanjutnya dalam uji pengaruh secara parsial, pendapatan negara dan suku bunga berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat pengembalian saham. Temuan lainnya adalah, bahwa pengeluaran pemerintah dan inflasi secara parsial tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap tingkat pengembalian saham. Mempertimbangkan keterbatasan dari penelitian ini, penelitian selanjutnya perlu menyempurnakan metode analisis dan mengeksplorasi variabel lain yang dapat mempengaruhi tingkat pengembalian saham di Indonesia.

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This study aims to analyze the effect of fiscal and monetary policies projected by variables of state revenue income, government spending, inflation rates, and interest rates on the projected rate of return on stocks in Indonesia through returns or returns on the JCI. The data used is secondary data taken from various source in the form of monthly data from 2015 to 2019. The analytical method used in this study is multiple regression analysis to see the effect of all the independent variables on the dependent variable. The results of the study show that the variables of fiscal policy in the form of state income, government spending, inflation, and interest rates together can explain the rate of return on stocks in Indonesia in the period from 2015 to 2019. Furthermore, in a partial effect test, state income and interest rates have a negative and significant effect on stock expenses. Another finding is that government spending and inflation partially have no significant effect on stock returns. Considering the limitations of this study, further research is needed to improve the method of analysis and explore other variables that can affect stock returns in Indonesia."

"This paper constructed a small macro econometric model of Indonesia using annual timeseries data from 1986 to 2011. The model consists of 6 behavior, 1 identity equations, 7 endogenous and 5 exogenous variables. The model is generated by using simultaneousequationsimulation and the Two Stage Least Square (TSLS) technique.Then the dynamicsimulation of the whole model is performed. The performance of the model on thehistorical data is evaluated based on Root Mean Square Percentage Error (RMSPE).Fiscaland monetary policies are simulated in order to develop the multiplier. Finally,forecasting is generated to identify the future economic performance of Indonesia."

"Studi ini mengkaji kebijakan moneter, kebijakan fiskal, kinerja pasar saham, dan hubungan di antara mereka dalam hal stabilitas ekonomi di Indonesia. Melalui kajian literatur dari beberapa penelitian empiris yang meneliti kasus Indonesia dan di negara-negara lain, studi ini menemukan bahwa kebijakan fiskal dan kebijakan moneter mempunyai efek signifikan dengan arah negatif terhadap harga saham. Oleh karena itu, pemerintah harus menaruh perhatian lebih terhadap penerapan stimulus fiskal dan disiplin fiskal serta penerapan instrumen-instrumen kebijakan moneter dalam merancang kebijakan yang sesuai dan positif terhadap performa pasar modal. Selain itu, batas realistis pada pembayaran utang harus diatur sedemikian rupa untuk memungkinkan pengembangan keuangan internal. Dari perspektif moneter, bank sentral harus fokus mengurangi efek lag sehingga reaksi berlebihan dari investor dapat diminimalkan. Dari perspektif pasar, kampanye kesadaran bagi perusahaan regional dan asing untuk mendaftar dan aktif di pasar bursa harus ditingkatkan. Selain itu, mendorong pasar agar investor tertarik berinvestasi di sektor riil juga merupakan tindakan penting, yang pada gilirannya dapat merangsang kapasitas produksi yang lebih tinggi bagi perekonomian.

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This study investigates the Indonesian fiscal policy, monetary policy, stock market performance, and the relationship between them in terms of economic stability in Indonesia. Through a literature review of several empirical studies, which scrutinize Indonesian cases and those in other countries, this study has found that amongst others, fiscal policy and monetary policy are negatively significant related to stock prices. Therefore, the government should pay close attention to the application of fiscal stimulus and observe fiscal discipline, when it takes into consideration monetary decisions regarding the performance of stock market. In addition, realistic limits on payments of debt service should be appropriately rearranged to allow for internal financial development. From a monetary perspective, the central bank should focus on reducing the lag effect so that the overreaction of investors can be minimized and the policy can be more effective. From a market perspective, an awareness campaign to help more regional and foreign companies become listed and quoted in the stock exchange market should be enhanced. In addition, encouraging the market is also an important action so that investors are interested in investing in the real sector, which in turn can lead to a higher production capacity for the economy and aggregate output."