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"[Target swasembada jagung di tahun 2016 perlu untuk dikaji ulang ketercapaiannya, karena target tersebut diiringi dengan beberapa kebijakan lainnya, seperti : penahanan stok di pelabuhan, pencabutan lisensi impor jagung oleh swasta, pemusatan manajemen stok jagung kepada Bulog. Apabila kebijakan-kebijakan tersebut tetap diimplementasikan di tengah kondisi pasar domestik yang kekurangan suplai, maka target swasembada jagung tahun 2016 akan menjadi malapetaka bagi para produsen pakan ternak yang memerlukan suplai jagung secara teratur. Studi ini ditujukan untuk meramal pencapaian target swasembada jagung di tahun 2016 dengan cara meramal produksi dan konsumsi pada tahun 2016 menggunakan beberapa alternatif metode : OLS, ARIMA, Time Trend Variable dan Recursive Model. Hasilnya, Indonesia akan mencapai swasembada jagung pada tahun 2016 dengan surplus sebesar 189.918 ton jagung pipilan kering dengan kadar air 25%. Namun mengingat kebutuhan industri pakan yang merupakan jagung pipilan kering dengan kadar air 15%, maka volume produksi yang menyusut akan membuat perhitungan di tahun 2016 malah menjadi defisit sebesar 2,51 juta ton. Apabila Indonesia ingin menutup defisit tersebut, diperlukan lahan jagung sebesar 4,3 juta hektar atau produktifitas lahan sebesar 63 kuintal per hektar.

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Corn self-sufficiency target in 2016 feasibility needs to be revisited because the program brings along several policies, such as : stock restricting at the ports, private’s import license abolishing and centering stock management to Bulog. Unless the domestic market being surplus, the policies implemented will cause a menace for livestock feed producers—for they need a regular corn supply. This study aims to forecast whether the target is going to be achieved by forecasting corn production and consumption in 2016 using several methods : OLS, ARIMA, Time Trend Variable and Recursive Model. The result shows that Indonesia is forecasted to achieve corn self-sufficiency by 2016; shown by a surplus of 189.918 tonne (with 25% moisture content). However, it is should be considered that feed-mill industry needs corn with 15% moisture content—and drying the corn shrinks its mass; leading to decrease of surplus and even change it into deficit of 2.51 million tonne. If Indonesia aims to self-suffice the deficit, then Indonesia needs 4.3 million hectares of corn land or land productivity of 6.3 tonne per hectare.

;Corn self-sufficiency target in 2016 feasibility needs to be revisited because the program brings along several policies, such as : stock restricting at the ports, private’s import license abolishing and centering stock management to Bulog. Unless the domestic market being surplus, the policies implemented will cause a menace for livestock feed producers—for they need a regular corn supply. This study aims to forecast whether the target is going to be achieved by forecasting corn production and consumption in 2016 using several methods : OLS, ARIMA, Time Trend Variable and Recursive Model. The result shows that Indonesia is forecasted to achieve corn self-sufficiency by 2016; shown by a surplus of 189.918 tonne (with 25% moisture content). However, it is should be considered that feed-mill industry needs corn with 15% moisture content—and drying the corn shrinks its mass; leading to decrease of surplus and even change it into deficit of 2.51 million tonne. If Indonesia aims to self-suffice the deficit, then Indonesia needs 4.3 million hectares of corn land or land productivity of 6.3 tonne per hectare.

;Corn self-sufficiency target in 2016 feasibility needs to be revisited because the program brings along several policies, such as : stock restricting at the ports, private’s import license abolishing and centering stock management to Bulog. Unless the domestic market being surplus, the policies implemented will cause a menace for livestock feed producers—for they need a regular corn supply. This study aims to forecast whether the target is going to be achieved by forecasting corn production and consumption in 2016 using several methods : OLS, ARIMA, Time Trend Variable and Recursive Model. The result shows that Indonesia is forecasted to achieve corn self-sufficiency by 2016; shown by a surplus of 189.918 tonne (with 25% moisture content). However, it is should be considered that feed-mill industry needs corn with 15% moisture content—and drying the corn shrinks its mass; leading to decrease of surplus and even change it into deficit of 2.51 million tonne. If Indonesia aims to self-suffice the deficit, then Indonesia needs 4.3 million hectares of corn land or land productivity of 6.3 tonne per hectare.

;Corn self-sufficiency target in 2016 feasibility needs to be revisited because the program brings along several policies, such as : stock restricting at the ports, private’s import license abolishing and centering stock management to Bulog. Unless the domestic market being surplus, the policies implemented will cause a menace for livestock feed producers—for they need a regular corn supply. This study aims to forecast whether the target is going to be achieved by forecasting corn production and consumption in 2016 using several methods : OLS, ARIMA, Time Trend Variable and Recursive Model. The result shows that Indonesia is forecasted to achieve corn self-sufficiency by 2016; shown by a surplus of 189.918 tonne (with 25% moisture content). However, it is should be considered that feed-mill industry needs corn with 15% moisture content—and drying the corn shrinks its mass; leading to decrease of surplus and even change it into deficit of 2.51 million tonne. If Indonesia aims to self-suffice the deficit, then Indonesia needs 4.3 million hectares of corn land or land productivity of 6.3 tonne per hectare.

, Corn self-sufficiency target in 2016 feasibility needs to be revisited because the program brings along several policies, such as : stock restricting at the ports, private’s import license abolishing and centering stock management to Bulog. Unless the domestic market being surplus, the policies implemented will cause a menace for livestock feed producers—for they need a regular corn supply. This study aims to forecast whether the target is going to be achieved by forecasting corn production and consumption in 2016 using several methods : OLS, ARIMA, Time Trend Variable and Recursive Model. The result shows that Indonesia is forecasted to achieve corn self-sufficiency by 2016; shown by a surplus of 189.918 tonne (with 25% moisture content). However, it is should be considered that feed-mill industry needs corn with 15% moisture content—and drying the corn shrinks its mass; leading to decrease of surplus and even change it into deficit of 2.51 million tonne. If Indonesia aims to self-suffice the deficit, then Indonesia needs 4.3 million hectares of corn land or land productivity of 6.3 tonne per hectare.

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"Pada 2014, Presiden Jokowi menargetkan swasembada kedelai akan terjadi pada tahun2018 sebagai upaya untuk mengurangi ketidakpastian dan kerentanan pada pasar kedelai. Melalui metode 2SLS dan ARIMA, studi ini ingin melihat pencapaian pemenuhan swasembada kedelai domestik pada 2018 beserta mengetahi faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi produksi dan konsumsi keselai dalam negeri. Haasilnya menunjukkan bahwa juatru produksi kedelai di Indonesia cenderung menurun sebesar 9% pada 2017 dan 4% pada 2018. Dengan peramalan jumlah konsumsi yang stagnan, maka rasio swasembada menurun menjadi 30% saja pada tahun 2018. Oleh karena target swasembada yang diprediksi tidak akan tercapai, peneliti ini juga menyuguhkan alternatif kebijakan seperti peningkatan luas area panen, meningkatkan harga impor kedelai, dan peningkatan harga produksi kedelai. Alternatif ini menghasilkan nilai prediksi yang positif untuk dapat menggenjot peningkatan jumlah produksi secara signifikan. Penelitian ini juga bersaha untuk mengkaji lagi program swasembada yang sebenarnya sudah pernah dicanangkan oleh pemerintah sebelumnya dan tidak pernah tercapai. Apabila Indonesia masih memaksa untuk dapt mencapai swasembada kedelai pada 2018 maka luas panen ataupun produktivitas harus ditingkatkan hingga dua kali lipat.

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This undergraduate thesis focuses on predict the achievement of soybean self sufficiency program in Indonesia at 2018. By the combined method, 2SLS and ARIMA, this study wants to look the achievement of the self sufficiency in Indonesia by counting the mass of domestic production and consumption. As the result shown, the mass of soybean domestic production decreased by 9 in 2017 and 4 in 2018 along with the decline in soybean price import. With the consumption result predictions that tends to shown stagnancy value, then the self sufficiency ratio decreases to only 0.3 in 2018. If Indonesia still wants to achieve this program, the writer suggest that the harvest area or the productivity should be doubled."

"[Presiden Joko Widodo menargetkan untuk mencapai ketahanan pangan di era kepemimpinannya. Salah satu cara untuk memenuhi target tersebut adalah dengan swasembada pangan untuk lima komoditas, yaitu beras, jagung, kedelai, daging, dan gula. Tiga diantaranya, yaitu beras, jagung dan kedelai, memiliki kemungkinan yang tinggi untuk tercapai. Sementara itu, swasembada daging kemungkinan besar tidak akan tercapai sesuai target. Di lain sisi, swasembada gula sulit untuk tercapai, akan tetapi tidak sepenuhnya mustahil untuk tercapai melihat kinerja Indonesia di zaman dahulu. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis kemungkinan swasembada gula di tahun 2017 menggunakan rencana realistis pemerintah. Dalam analisis ini, penulis mengestimasi produksi dan konsumsi gula di tahun 2017. Dua metode digunakan dalam penelitian ini, yaitu model stokastik untuk proyeksi produksi dan model deterministik untuk proyeksi konsumsi. Hasilnya kemudian ditampilkan dalam rasio produksi terhadap konsumsi. Hasil menunjukan bahwa, di tahun 2017, konsumsi gula langsung dapat mencapai tiga juta ton dan konsumsi gula tidak langsung dapat mencapai 3.5 juta ton. Secara total, konsumsi gula Indonesia mencapai 6.5 juta ton di tahun 2017. Di lain sisi,produksi gula Indonesia di tahun 2017 hanya mencapai sekitar 2.7 ton. Dari hasil perhitungan tersebut, dapat diketahui bahwa swasembada gula di tahun 2017 tidak akan tercapai, baik dari konsumsi gula langsung maupun konsumsi gula total. Dengan demikian, pemerintah perlu berusaha lebih keras agar rencana-rencana strategis yang sudah dibentuk dapat terlaksana dengan baik sehingga target dapat tercapai.

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President Joko Widodo aims to reach food security in its era. One of the mean to reach the target is by achieving self sufficiency in 5 commodities rice corn soybean meat and sugar. Three of them rice corn and soybean is likely to be achieved meanwhile meat will be unlikely to be achieved. Sugar is hard to be achieved yet it is not impossible seeing the track record of Indonesia. This research is aimed to see the possibility of sugar self sufficiency in 2017 based on the government 39's realistic planning. To analyze writer estimates production and consumption of sugar in 2017 Two methods are employed 1 stochastic model for production projection and 2 deterministic model for consumption projection. The result is then presented using production to consumption ratio The result shows that in 2017 the direct sugar consumption may reach 3 million ton and the indirect sugar consumption may reach 3 5 million ton totaling to 6,5 million ton. In other side the production may only reach 2,7 million ton Based on the calculation it is found that Indonesia may not reach sugar self sufficiency both in only direct sugar consumption and total sugar consumption. Given this government needs to take extra action so that the target may be achieved., President Joko Widodo aims to reach food security in its era One of the mean to reach the target is by achieving self sufficiency in 5 commodities rice corn soybean meat and sugar Three of them rice corn and soybean is likely to be achieved meanwhile meat will be unlikely to be achieved Sugar is hard to be achieved yet it is not impossible seeing the track record of Indonesia This research is aimed to see the possibility of sugar self sufficiency in 2017 based on the government 39 s realistic planning To analyze writer estimates production and consumption of sugar in 2017 Two methods are employed 1 stochastic model for production projection and 2 deterministic model for consumption projection The result is then presented using production to consumption ratio The result shows that in 2017 the direct sugar consumption may reach 3 million ton and the indirect sugar consumption may reach 3 5 million ton totaling to 6 5 million ton In other side the production may only reach 2 7 million ton Based on the calculation it is found that Indonesia may not reach sugar self sufficiency both in only direct sugar consumption and total sugar consumption Given this government needs to take extra action so that the target may be achieved ]"

"ABSTRAKJagung merupakan salah satu komoditi utama yang diharapkan mampu mencapai swasembada hingga akhir RPJMN 2019. Swasembada jagung diarahkan kepada peningkatan produksi jagung sehingga tidak akan diberlakukan lagi kebijakan impor. Pemerintah melalui Kementerian Pertanian menerbitkan kebijakan swasembada jagung dengan ekstensifikasi dan intensifikasi, dengan skenario Penambahan Areal Tanam PAT seluas 3 juta Ha dan peningkatan produktivitas 53,13 Ku/Ha. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk : 1 Mengukur ketercapaian swasembada jagung nasional dengan membangun model sistem dinamis ketersedian jagung nasional sebelum dan sesudah ada kebijakan swasembada; 2 Menyusun kebijakan alternatif agar swasembada jagung dapat tercapai. Hasil validasi dan verifikasi model sistem mampu menggambarkan kondisi aktual yang ada. Hasil simulasi menunjukan bahwa swasembada jagung dapat tercapai secara berkelanjutan hingga tahun 2019 melaui kebijakan peningkatan indeks pertanaman, dan skenario ekstensifikasi PAT realistis, ekstensifikasi optimis dan perpaduan antara kebijakan ektensifikasi realistis dan intensifikasi.

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ABSTRACTCorn is one of five main commodities that are expected to achieve self sufficiency at the end of RPJMN 2019. Gap between supply and demand capacities was still quite large, so that imports are still being conducted. The government through the Ministry of Agriculture issued self sufficiency policy with extensification and intensification, with the scenario increasing of Planting Areas PAT up to 3 Million Ha and increasing productivity up to 53,18 Ku Ha. This study aims to 1 Measure the achievement of national self sufficiency of corn by establish a model of dynamic system of national corn availability before and after policy of self sufficiency 2 Develop some alternatives policy for corn self sufficiency. The simulation results showed that increasing the cropping index can be achieved self sufficiency of maize continuously until 2019, as well the scenario of extensification PAT realistic, optimistic and the combination of realistic and intensification."

"Penelitian ini dilatarbelakangi oleh cita-cita Indonesia dalam mewujudkan swasembada daging sapi telah dimulai sejak tahun 2000. Indonesia secara berturut-turut mencanangkan program swasembada daging sapi ke dalam tiga periode: 2000-2005; 2005-2010; 2010-2014. Namun, di penghujung tahun 2014, pencapaian swasembada daging sapi di Indonesia dinyatakan belum tercapai. Maka, penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui faktor internal dan eksternal yang menyebabkan kegagalan program swasembada sapi pada periode tahun 2010-2014.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memahami praktik dan dinamika perdagangan internasional komoditas pangan strategis, serta gesekannya terhadap kepentingan nasional. Penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa dalam dinamika ekonomi politik internasional, upaya swasembada pangan yang dilihat dari perspektif nasionalisme ekonomi berada dalam kepungan liberalisasi perdagangan internasional. Oleh karena itu, dibutuhkan integritas dari semua pihak yang berkepentingan agar suatu negara dapat mencapai swasembada pangan.

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The background of this research is Indonesia's attempt to achieve beef self-sufficiency that has been started since 2000. Indonesia has launched beef self-sufficiency programs consecutively into three periods: 2000-2005; 2005-2010; 2010-2014. However, in the end of 2014, Indonesia still has not reached its target. Thus, this study is conducted to determine the internal and external factors that cause the failure in beef self-sufficiency program in the period 2010-2014.

This research aims to understand the practices and the dynamics of strategic food commodities international trade, as well as its friction against the national interest. The results of this research revealed that in the dynamics of the international political economy, the efforts to achieve food self-sufficiency, which are viewed from the economic nationalism perspective, were surrounded by the liberalization of international trade. Therefore, it takes the integrity of all the stakeholders so that a nation can achieve food self-sufficiency."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis permintaan impor daging sapi di Indonesia sebelum dan sesudah adanya program swasembada daging sapi baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang Penelitian ini menggunakan data time series periode tahun 1974 sampai dengan tahun 2013 dengan menggunakan pendekatan kointegrasi dan Error Correction Model Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek program swasembada daging sapi belum mampu mengurangi permintaan impor daging sapi Apabila terjadi perubahan pada variabel variabel yang mempengaruhi permintaan impor daging sapi jangka pendek maka akan membutuhkan waktu selama 3 37 bulan untuk menuju keseimbangan model permintaan impor daging sapi jangka panjang.

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This study aims to analyze the demand for beef imports in Indonesia before and after the beef self sufficiency program in both the short and long term This study uses time series data period 1974 to 2013 by using cointegration approach and error correction model The results showed that long term and short term self sufficiency in beef program has been unable to reduce the demand for imported beef If there is a change in the variables that affect the demand for imported beef short term it would take 3 37 months for the balance towards demand model for beef imports in long term"

"ABSTRAKIndonesia memiliki lebih dari 17 ribu pulau, dengan garis pantai lebih dari 54.000 km yang menjadikan Indonesia sebagai garis pantai terpanjang kedua di dunia setelah Kanada. Ironisnya, Indonesia belum dapat memenuhi kebutuhan garam nasional terkait kuantitas dan kualitas. Hingga saat ini, Indonesia masih mengandalkan garam impor untuk memenuhi kebutuhan nasional, terutama pada kebutuhan garam industri. Dalam penelitian ini, sebuah kajian dilakukan untuk menilai kesesuaian kebijakan yang ditetapkan oleh pemerintah mengenai produksi dan permintaan garam dengan menggunakan pendekatan Sistem Dinamika untuk memproyeksikan kebutuhan nasional baik garam konsumsi maupun garam industri untuk sepenuhnya dipenuhi oleh produksi lokal. Hasil analisis produksi garam dengan periode bulanan menunjukkan bahwa faktor cuaca secara dramatis masih mempengaruhi produksi garam nasional sehingga Indonesia masih kesulitan dalam memenuhi kebutuhan garam di musim hujan. Sementara hasil dari skenario menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia berhasil dalam swasembada garam konsumsi dan garam industri pada tahun 2028 dengan investasi teknologi untuk meningkatkan kualitas garam. Sementara skenario perluasan area tanaman menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia hanya dapat memenuhi kebutuhan garam industri non-CAP pada tahun 2021.

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ABSTRACT Indonesia has more than 17 thousand islands, with a coastline of more than 54,000 km which makes Indonesia the second longest coastline in the world after Canada. Ironically, Indonesia has not been able to meet the needs of national salt regarding quantity and quality. Until now, Indonesia still relies on imported salt to meet the national needs, especially on the needs of industrial salt. In this research, a study was conducted to assess the suitability of policies established by the government regarding production and demand of salt by using mathematical model and System Dynamics approach to project the national needs of both consumption salt and industrial salt to be entirely fulfilled by local production. The results of monthly production analysis indicate that the weather factor still dramatically influences the production of national salt so that Indonesia even difficulties in meeting the needs of salt in the rainy season. While the results of the scenarios showed that Indonesia succeeds in the self sufficiency of consumption and industrial salt in 2028 with technology investment to increase quality of salt. While the scenario of expanded plants area indicates that Indonesia can only meet the needs of non CAP industry salt in 2021."

"Pada tahun 1930-an Indonesia adalah negara pengekspor terbesar kedua setelah Kuba. Akan tetapi, pada tahun 1999 Indonesia menjadi negara pengimpor gula terbesar kedua didunia setelah Rusia. Untuk menyelamatkan industri gula. sejak tahun 2000 pcmerintah kebijakan proteksi dan promosi. Proteksi dilaksanakan dengan penetapan bea masuk sedangkan promosi dilaksanakan dalam bentuk Program Akselarasi Peningkatan Produksi Gula Nasional yang dimuali tahun 2002, dengan sasaran untuk mencapai swasembada pada tahun 2007 untuk konsumsi rumah tangga dan pada tahun 2009 untuk seluruh konsumsi baik untuk rumah tangga maupun industri.drlii National y