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"[ABSTRAKPerdagangan Internasional memegang peranan penting terhadap perekonomian Indonesia. Presiden Republik Indonesia melalui program Nawa Cita memiliki proyeksi pertumbuhan ekspor yang signifikan selama periode 2015-2019. Salah satu faktor pendukung dari keberhasilan pencapaian target ekspor Indonesia adalah aspek logistik yang terjadi pada pasar perdagangan Internasional. Ekspektasi pertumbuhan ekspor Indonesia pada masa yang akan datang dirasakan cukup berat mengingat tren total ekspor Indonesia cenderung turun selama empat tahun terakhir ditambah performa indikator logistik Indonesia yang dirasakan belum maksimal. Mengingat terjadinya penurunan ekspor Indonesia selama beberapa tahun terakhir, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisa faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi ekspor di Indonesia serta pengaruh logistik terhadap ekspor dengan mempertimbangkan strategic improvement yang dapat dilakukan untuk mencapai target pertumbuhan ekspor. Penelitian dengan metode Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) mendapatkan hasil bahwa pada jangka pendek variabel investasi asing (FDI) dan variabel ekspor sendiri pada lag sebelumnya berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ekspor, sedangkan pada jangka panjang variabel investasi domestik (PMDN), logistik (PDBT), dan nilai tukar berpengaruh signifikan yang positif terhadap ekspor. Performa logistik harus ditingkatkan dalam upaya mencapai target pertumbuhan ekspor Indonesia pada periode 2015-2019.

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ABSTRACTInternational trade sector holds imperative role toward Economy of Indonesia. President of Republic of Indonesia through Nawa Cita agenda has significant export projection growth between periode of 2015-2019. One of key success factors to achieve such massive target is logistical aspect concurring within international trade circumstances. Future export?s expectation growth seems to be hard to be achieved in accordance with recent export performances which were slightly decreasing in previous years. This research is aimed to analyze certain factors which possibly affect the declining trend value of Indonesia?s export, also to scrutinizely analyze the impact of logistic toward export so that strategical improvement can be conducted in order to notch export?s target set in period of 2015-2019. This research used Vector Error Correction Model, with the result of several factors affecting export value of Indonesia. In the short term, Foreign Direct Investment and export itself in previous lag were giving impact significantly towards export value. Meanwhile in longer term, domestic investment, logistic, and exchange rate were significantly affecting export?s value positively. Logistic performances need to be enhanced in order to forge and notch the export value?s target within period of 2015-2019;International trade sector holds imperative role toward Economy of Indonesia. President of Republic of Indonesia through Nawa Cita agenda has significant export projection growth between periode of 2015-2019. One of key success factors to achieve such massive target is logistical aspect concurring within international trade circumstances. Future export?s expectation growth seems to be hard to be achieved in accordance with recent export performances which were slightly decreasing in previous years. This research is aimed to analyze certain factors which possibly affect the declining trend value of Indonesia?s export, also to scrutinizely analyze the impact of logistic toward export so that strategical improvement can be conducted in order to notch export?s target set in period of 2015-2019. This research used Vector Error Correction Model, with the result of several factors affecting export value of Indonesia. In the short term, Foreign Direct Investment and export itself in previous lag were giving impact significantly towards export value. Meanwhile in longer term, domestic investment, logistic, and exchange rate were significantly affecting export?s value positively. Logistic performances need to be enhanced in order to forge and notch the export value?s target within period of 2015-2019, International trade sector holds imperative role toward Economy of Indonesia. President of Republic of Indonesia through Nawa Cita agenda has significant export projection growth between periode of 2015-2019. One of key success factors to achieve such massive target is logistical aspect concurring within international trade circumstances. Future export’s expectation growth seems to be hard to be achieved in accordance with recent export performances which were slightly decreasing in previous years. This research is aimed to analyze certain factors which possibly affect the declining trend value of Indonesia’s export, also to scrutinizely analyze the impact of logistic toward export so that strategical improvement can be conducted in order to notch export’s target set in period of 2015-2019. This research used Vector Error Correction Model, with the result of several factors affecting export value of Indonesia. In the short term, Foreign Direct Investment and export itself in previous lag were giving impact significantly towards export value. Meanwhile in longer term, domestic investment, logistic, and exchange rate were significantly affecting export’s value positively. Logistic performances need to be enhanced in order to forge and notch the export value’s target within period of 2015-2019]"

"Tujuan utama dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui apakah terdapat hubungan jangka panjang ataupun jangka pendek terhadap perubahan nilai tukar dengan pertumbuhan ekspor Indonesia ke Australia. Model yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah teknik kointegrasi dan model koreksi kesalahan (Error Correction Model) denganmenggunakan data kwartalan 1998(1)-2007(4). Dalam penelitian ini ditemukan bahwa nilai tukar Indonesia terhadap dolar Australia dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek memenuhi fenomena Marshall-Lerner dimana terdepresiasinya nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Australia akan meningkatkan ekspor Indonesia ke Australia.

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This research is primarily designed to identi fy the relarionship of the conversion of real exchange rate to the growth of the real Indonesian export to Australia in the long term or short term. Model practiced in this research is cointegrfltion technique and error correction model, employing quarterly data of 1998(1)-2007(4). This research has come to a conclusion that the exchange rate of Indonesian Rupiah to the Australian Dollar both in the long and short tenns conforms with the Ma rshall-Lemer phenomena, that the depressed exchange rate of Indonesian to the Australian currencies will increase the Indonesian export to Australia."

"Penelitian ini diadakan dengan tujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh kebijakan Amnesti Pajak terhadap perbedaan abnormal return pada saham LQ-45 dalam kurun waktu tahun 2015 sampai dengan 2019. Data saham yang menjadi sampel adalah data sekunder harga saham adjusted close harian dari 30 perusahaan yang terdaftar sebagai LQ-45. Uji beda yang dilakukan dengan Paired Sample t-test untuk melihat signifikansi perbedaan abnormal return dan average abnormal return saham pada periode pengamatan. Hasil pengujian menunjukkan tidak adanya perbedaan abnormal return saham pada periode sebelum, selama dan setelah Amnesti Pajak. Average abnormal return juga tidak menunjukkan perbedaan pada periode sebelum Amnesti Pajak. Sedangkan, event window setelah Amesti Pajak terdapat perbedaan dari uji paired sample t-test. Penelitian selanjutnya agar dilakukan dengan memperluas cakupan sampel dan jenis variabel independennya.

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The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of Tax Amnesty Policy on differences in abnormal return of LQ-45 shares in the period 2015 to 2019. The stock price data was secondary data downloadde from adjusted closed stock price of 30 companies listed as LQ-45 in all observation period from web. The test conducted by Paired Sample t-test to see the significance of differences in abnormal returns and average abnormal returns of shares in the observation period. The results of the test above showed no difference in abnormal returns of the shares in the period before, during and after the Tax Amnesty held. For the event window before Tax Amnesty implementation there is no different as well. Meanwhile, the paired sample t-test for enevt window after the implementation showed a different result. Future study to be conducted by expanding the scope of sample and its independent variables."

"Tujuan dari penelitian yang akan dilakukan ini adalah untuk menganalisis pengaruh Window Dressing yang diukur dengan dengan Earning Management Proxy menggunakan Modified Jones terhadap nilai pasar dan kinerja keuangan yang diukur dengan returns pada perusahaan yang terindeks LQ 45 Bursa Efek Indonesia periode 2015-2019. Perusahaan yang dijadikan sebagai objek penelitian ini khususnya adalah perusahaan yang tergolong dalam klasifikasi LQ 45 berdomisili di Indonesia dan terdaftar pada Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) berjumlah 28 perusahaan yang konsisten dan 64 perusahaan secara keseluruhan. Window Dressing yang diukur dengan dengan Earning Management menggunakan Modified Jones dengan variabel dependen, yakni kinerja keuangan dan nilai pasar perusahaan yang diukur dengan Return. Earning Management Proxy yang digunakan peneliti sendiri terdiri dari model Modified Jones. Setelah terbukti terjadi penerapan Earning Management, maka akan dilakukan olah data untuk melihat uji ketahanan model yang menunjukan dampak Window Dressing terhadap kinerja keuangan dan nilai pasar yang diukur dengan Returns menggunakan CAPM (Sharpe,1960), the Fama-French three-factor model (Fama French, 1992) dan Carhart four-factor model (Carhart,1997). Kedua model ini menunjukan bahwa Earning Management proxy yang digunakan memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap returns, oleh karena itu, pertanyaan penelitian terjawab bahwa terdapat pengaruh window dressing terhadap nilai pasar dan kinerja keuangan yang dibuktikan dengan Earning Management proxy menggunakan Modified Jones dan Uji ketahanan menggunakan The CAPM, Fama French 3 Factor dan Carhart 4 Factor

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The purpose of this research is to analyze the effect of Window Dressing as measured by Earning Management Proxy using Modified Jones on market value and financial performance as measured by returns on companies indexed LQ 45 Indonesia Stock Exchange 2015-2019 period. Companies that are used as objects of this research are companies classified as LQ 45 domiciled in Indonesia and listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) totaling 28 consistent companies and 64 companies in total. Window Dressing as measured by Earning Management using Modified Jones with dependent variables, namely financial performance and market value of the company as measured by Return. The Earning Management Proxy used by the researcher himself consists of the Modified Jones model. After it is proven that the application of Earning Management has occurred, data processing will be carried out to see the model resilience test which shows the impact of Window Dressing on financial performance and market value as measured by Returns using the CAPM (Sharpe, 1960), the Fama-French three-factor model (Fama French, 1992) and Carhart four-factor model (Carhart, 1997). These two models show that the Earning Management proxy used has a significant effect on returns, therefore, the research question is answered that there is an effect of window dressing on market value and financial performance as evidenced by Earning Management proxy using Modified Jones and robustness test using The CAPM. , Fama French 3 Factor and Carhart 4 Factor. "

"Penelitian ini membahas tentang pengaruh liquidity shock terhadap return saham yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia pada tahun 2015-2019. Liquidity shock merupakan ukuran likuiditas yang belum banyak dieksplorasi dalam penelitian terkait asset pricing. Return saham yang diuji dalam penelitian ini adalah weekly excess return. Pengujian dilakukan dengan mengkontrol variabel ukuran perusahaan yang diproksikan dengan market capitalization, ukuran ilikuiditas berupa relative bid-ask spread, dan ukuran sensitivitas berupa beta. Analisis yang dilakukan adalah analisis univariat pada level portofolio termasuk signifikansi dan compare means menggunakan one-way ANOVA dan independent sample t-test, analisis regresi linear, serta analisis regresi logistik. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa variabel liquidity shock berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap weekly excess return pada regresi linear dengan tingkat signifikansi 0,1 dan berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap peluang terjadi return positif pada regresi logistik dengan tingkat signifikansi 0,05. Pada analisis univariat dihasilkan pergerakan nonmonotonik seiring meningkatnya liquidity shock, dengan rata-rata return yang signifikan pada titik ekstrem di desil 1 dan desil 10.

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This research discusses the effect of liquidity shock on the return of listed stocks in the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the year 2015-2019. Liquidity shock is a largely unexplored area in asset pricing literature. Stock return used as variable in this research is weekly excess return. This research using company size proxied by market capitalization, illiquidity measure in form of relative bid-ask spread, and sensitivity

measure in form of stock beta as control variables. The tests conducted in this research are univariate portfolio analysis including significancy and compare means using one way ANOVA and independent sample t-test, linear regression, and logistic regression. The result of this research is that liquidity shock is having a negative effect on the stock return that significant on significance level 0.1 using linear regression an 0.05 using logistic regression. Univariate portfolio analysis resulted a non-monotonical movement concurrently with increase of liquidity shock with significance mean on extreme value at

decile 1 and decile 10."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh kebijakan fiskal dan moneter yang diproyeksikan oleh variabel penerimaan/pendapatan negara, pengeluaran pemerintah/belanja negara, tingkat inflasi dan tingkat suku bunga terhadap tingkat pengembalian saham di Indonesia yang diproyeksikan melalui return atau pengembalian IHSG. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder yang diambil dari berbagai sumber dalam bentuk data bulanan dalam kurun waktu 2015 s.d. 2019. Metode analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah regresi linear berganda untuk melihat pengaruh semua variabel independen terhadap variabel dependen. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa, variabel kebijakan fiskal berupa pendapatan negara, pengeluaran pemerintah, inflasi dan suku bunga secara bersama-sama dapat menjelaskan tingkat pengembalian saham di Indonesia periode 2015 s.d. 2019. Selanjutnya dalam uji pengaruh secara parsial, pendapatan negara dan suku bunga berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat pengembalian saham. Temuan lainnya adalah, bahwa pengeluaran pemerintah dan inflasi secara parsial tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap tingkat pengembalian saham. Mempertimbangkan keterbatasan dari penelitian ini, penelitian selanjutnya perlu menyempurnakan metode analisis dan mengeksplorasi variabel lain yang dapat mempengaruhi tingkat pengembalian saham di Indonesia.

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This study aims to analyze the effect of fiscal and monetary policies projected by variables of state revenue income, government spending, inflation rates, and interest rates on the projected rate of return on stocks in Indonesia through returns or returns on the JCI. The data used is secondary data taken from various source in the form of monthly data from 2015 to 2019. The analytical method used in this study is multiple regression analysis to see the effect of all the independent variables on the dependent variable. The results of the study show that the variables of fiscal policy in the form of state income, government spending, inflation, and interest rates together can explain the rate of return on stocks in Indonesia in the period from 2015 to 2019. Furthermore, in a partial effect test, state income and interest rates have a negative and significant effect on stock expenses. Another finding is that government spending and inflation partially have no significant effect on stock returns. Considering the limitations of this study, further research is needed to improve the method of analysis and explore other variables that can affect stock returns in Indonesia."

"Pertumbuhan ekonomi yang terjadi dalam satu dekade terakhir di sejumlah negara Muslim menggambarkan suatu pertumbuhan yang tidak berkualitas akibat meningkatnya kesenjangan. Penerapan kebijakan fiskal dan moneter yang efektif dan efisien dapat mendukung pertumbuhan yang lebih inklusif, yaitu memberikan kesempatan yang sama bagi masyarakat untuk menikmati pertumbuhan. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk menganalisis pengaruh kebijakan fiskal meliputi pengeluaran pemerintah di sektor kesehatan dan pendidikan serta kebijakan moneter meliputi sasaran akhirnya yaitu inflasi dan kredit domestik perbankan terhadap pertumbuhan inklusif di 4 negara OKI yaitu Indonesia, Malaysia, Qatar dan Saudi Arabia dengan menggunakan pengukuran yang diformulasikan oleh Hakimian. Hasil estimasi dengan menggunakan ECM Error Correction Model menunjukkan bahwa baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang pengeluaran pemerintah di sektor kesehatan berpengaruh secara positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan inklusif di Malaysia dan Qatar, sedangkan pengeluaran pemerintah di sektor pendidikan berpengaruh secara positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan inklusif di Indonesia dan Saudi Arabia. Sementara itu, inflasi ditemukan hanya berpengaruh signifikan dalam jangka panjang baik di Indonesia, Qatar, Malaysia dan Saudi Arabia, sedangkan kredit domestik perbankan berpengaruh secara positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan inklusif di Saudi Arabia, Malaysia dan Qatar dalam jangka panjang. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini, perlu adanya peninjauan ulang porsi pengeluaran pemerintah di sektor kesehatan dan pendidikan dan efisiensi alokasi anggarannya untuk mendukung pertumbuhan inklusif. Selain itu, penguatan kebijakan moneter, stabilitas politik dan keamanan dalam negeri, serta perluasan sektor keuangan financial deepening untuk mencapai kesetaraan masyarakat dalam mendapatkan akses keuangan dapat mendukung tercapainya pertumbuhan inklusif.

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In the last decade, a number of Muslim countries experience an unqualified economic growth. It is indicated by a high economic growth with less equality. The usage of an effective and efficient fiscal and monetary policy can promote an inclusive growth. This study empirically investigates the impact of fiscal policy government spending on health and education and monetary policy target inflation and domestic credit by banks on inclusive growth in four selected OIC Organization of Islamic Cooperation member countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Qatar and Saudi Arabia by using Hakimian's formulation.

Based on ECM Error Correction Model, the result of this investigation shows that government spending in health positively and significantly influences inclusive growth in Malaysia and Qatar, while government spending on education influences inclusive growth in Indonesia and Saudi Arabia positively and significantly both in the short and long term. In terms of monetary policy, there is a significant effect of inflation towards inclusive growth in Indonesia, Qatar, Malaysia and Saudi Arabia in the long term. Meanwhile, a significant and positive influence of domestic bank credit towards inclusive growth only happens in Malaysia, Qatar and Saudi Arabia in long term.

Based on these results, it is necessary to review the portion of government spending in health and education, to increase the efficiency of budget allocation to support the inclusive growth. In addition, it is also necessary to strengthen monetary policy, maintaining political stability and security of the country, as well as to enhance the finance sector by financial deepening to achieve the equality in access to finance to promote the inclusive growth. "

"Variabel makroekonomi merupakan salah satu indikator suatu negara untuk melihat atau menilai perkembangan ekonomi suatu negara. Investor membutuhkan informasi tentang pertumbuhan faktor ekonomi untuk mengambil keputusan kebijakan ekonomi. Mengenai investasi saham menurut Amtiran et al. (2017), beberapa variabel makroekonomi seperti PDB, suku bunga, dan nilai tukar berpengaruh signifikan terhadap return saham. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat hubungan antara faktor makroekonomi seperti harga minyak, B.I. 7-day Repo Rate, nilai tukar Rupiah, PDB dan inflasi pada return saham di Pasar Modal Indonesia. Penulis menggunakan Model Regresi Berganda untuk menguji hubungan tersebut. Penulis menggunakan data sekunder dari thomsonreuters.com, Bank Indonesia, Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), dan Informasi dan Administrasi Energi A.S. Teknik pengambilan sampel menggunakan purposive sampling, dimana jumlah sampel penelitian adalah 34 saham teraktif yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Harga minyak, B.I. 7-day Repo Rate, nilai tukar Rupiah, PDB dan inflasi digunakan sebagai faktor makroekonomi. Teknik analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah ordinary least square. Hasil penelitiannya adalah harga minyak, B.I. 7-day Repo Rate, nilai tukar Rupiah, PDB dan inflasi signifikan terhadap return saham. Harga minyak dan inflasi berkorelasi positif dengan return saham sedangkan PDB, nilai tukar, dan B.I. 7-day Repo Rate berkorelasi negatif dengan return saham

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Macroeconomic variables are one of a country's indicators for seeing or assessing a country's economic development. The investor needs information on the growth of economic factors to make economic policy decisions. Regarding the stock investment based on Amtiran et al. (2017), some macroeconomics variable like GDP, interest rate, and the exchange rate is significant to the stock return. Therefore, the research aims to see the relationship between macroeconomics factors such as oil price, B.I. 7-day Repo Rate, exchange rate, GDP and inflation on the stock returns in the Indonesia Capital Market. The author uses the Multiple Regression Model to examine the relationship. The author uses secondary data from thomsonreuters.com, Bank Indonesia, Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), and U.S. Energy Information and Administration. For the sampling technique, the author uses purposive sampling, in which the total sample of the research is 34 most active stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The oil price, B.I. 7-day Repo Rate, exchange rate, GDP and inflation are used to be the macroeconomics factors. The research use ordinary least square as the analysis technique. The research results are oil price, B.I. 7-day Repo Rate, exchange rate, GDP and inflation significant to the stock return. The oil price and inflation positively correlated to the stock return while exchange rate, GDP, and B.I. 7-day Repo Rate negatively correlated to the stock return."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis kontribusi human error pada kejadian kecelakaan Direktorat Logistik & Ekspor PT Holcim Indonesia, Tbk tahun 2010. Secara khusus penelitian ini menganalisis unsafe acts dan aspek prakondisi yang berkontribusi pada kejadian kecelakaan akibat human error, dengan menggunakan framework Human Factors and Classification System. Metode yang digunakan bersifat kualitatif dengan pengumpulan data primer berupa in depth interview & observasi, serta pengumpulan data sekunder dari hasil investigasi kecelakaan & telaah dokumen perusahaan.Distribusi kejadian kecelakaan juga dilihat berdasarkan jenis kecelakaan, umur, masa kerja pengemudi, waktu dan tempat kejadian. Yang paling signifikan dari unsafe acts berupa skill-based error akibat kelelahan, routine violation pada perilaku pengemudi yang tidak tertib, serta exceptional violation berupa temuan kondisi kendaraan yang tidak standar & tidak adanya pengawas lapangan. Sedangkan yang paling signifikan dari aspek prakondisi berupa kondisi operator akibat keterbatasan fisik pengemudi, dan faktor personel yakni manajemen sumber daya personelnya. Selain itu didapatkan hasil bahwa kecelakaan tahun 2010 paling banyak terjadi di dalam plant.The objective of study is to analyze the contribution of human error in accident at Logistic & Export Directorate Narogong Plant PT Holcim Indonesia, Tbk 2010. Specifically, this study analyzes Unsafe Acts dan Precondition for Unsafe Acts that contribute accidents, using Human Factors and Classification System framework. Using qualitative method, the primary data is collection of in depth interview results & observation, and the secondary data is collection of accident investigation & review comporate documents.

Distribution of accidents are also considered by type of accident, age, experience, time and place of occurrence. The most significant results of unsafe acts are skill-based error due to fatigue, routine violation on driver behavior which is not discipline, and exceptional violation findings at non-standard vehicle condition & lack of field supervisors. While the most significant aspects in precondition for unsafe acts are condition of operator due to the driver?s physical limitations and personnel factor especially in crew resource management condition. In addition, it showed that most of the accidents 2010 occurred in the plant."

"ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui daya saing dan pertumbuhan eksporhasil hutan kayu Indonesia sebelum dan setelah penerapan kebijakan ACFTA.Sebagai sebuah negara yang memiliki luas hutan yang mencapai 52 % persen luasdaratannya Indonesia memiliki keunggulan komparatif pada sektor kehutanan.Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Dynamic Revealed Comparative Advantagedan regresi dengan data panel menggunakan 16 produk hasil hutan kayu Indonesiadengan HS 44. Pada periode penelitian, tahun 2001-2011. Produk hasil hutankayu Indonesia mengalami perubahan daya saing. Hasil penelitian menunjukkanbahwa ada kecenderungan ekspor produk hasil hutan kayu yang relatif lebihmentah, meningkat sementara yang mengalami hasil pengolahan lebih lanjutcenderung menurun. Dari hasil uji statistik ACFTA berdampak negatif bagipertumbuhan ekspor hasil hutan kayu Indonesia secara rata-rata. Pada penelitianini terdapat beberapa faktor yang tak dikontrol dan mungkin mempengaruhi hasilpenelitian seperti guncangan ekonomi, berbagai larangan/pengetatan ekspor padakayu primer, serta shifting ekspor Indonesia dari China ke negara ASEAN yangmasuk dalam skema ACFTA yang terjadi pada periode penelitian.

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ABSTRACTThis study was aimed to examine the competitive potential and the export growthof Indonesian timber product before and after the ACFTA policy adoption. As acountry with forest area covering 52% of its total land, Indonesia has comparativeexcellence in forestry sector. This study was performed using Dynamic RevealedComparative Advantage method and regresion with panel data of 16 Indonesiantimber products with HS 44 from 2001-2011. The results showed that export oftimber forest products that is relatively crude rose while export of furtherprocessing decreased. From the results of statistical tests, ACFTA has a negativeimpact on the growth of Indonesian timber forest products on average during theperiod 2001-2011. In this study, there are several factors that are not controlledmay affect the results of the research such as various economic shocks,ban/tightening of the primary timber exports, and shifting of the Indonesian exportfrom China to othe ASEAN countries in the ACFTA scheme that occurred in thestudy period."