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"This thesis uses general equilibrium model to examine the economic impact of ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) on Indonesia. The analysis covers how price and quantity change in response to tariff liberalization under ACFTA framework. Demand and supply elasticity is needed to calculate welfare effects. Difference-in-differences method is applied to estimate demand elasticity while supply elasticity is calculated through Instrumental Variable (IV) regressions using tariff as an instrument. The results show that Indonesia's demand is elastic enough and supply to Indonesia is fairly elastic. Indonesia consumers are willing to substitute products between different sources due to price changes. ACFTA would increase production quantity for all member countries but had insignificant effect on reducing price of goods. Furthermore, I confirm result from existing literature that trade creation effect is dominated than trade diversion effect."

"Thesis ini menggunakan metode data panel untuk melihat dampak ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) terhadap Perdagangan Intra-Industri (IIT) Indonesia-China untuk produk tekstil. IIT diukur menggunakan indeks Grubel dan Lloyd dan akan didekomposisi menjadi IIT horizontal, IIT Vertikal Bawah, dan IIT Vertikal Atas. Berbeda dengan kebanyakan penelitian empiris sebelumnya, penelitian ini menemukan bahwa perjanjian tersebut secara signifikan berdampak negatif terhadap IIT horizontal, IIT vertical bawah , dan IIT vertical atas. Studi ini juga mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor penentu IIT lainnya sebagai variabel terkontrol, seperti kesenjangan ukuran ekonomi, keterbukaan perdagangan, ketidakseimbangan perdagangan, dan kondisi COVID-19. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa perbedaan ukuran ekonomi secara signifikan meredam IIT horizontal dan IIT vertikal bawah. Lebih lanjut, meningkatnya ketidakseimbangan perdagangan tampaknya menurunkan semua jenis IIT. Sementara itu, keterbukaan perdagangan meningkatkan IIT Horizontal, IIT Vertikal Bawah, dan IIT Vertikal Atas. Kondisi COVID-19 juga menyebabkan keterlibatan LVIIT dan UVIIT.

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This thesis assesses the ASEAN-China free trade area's impact on Indonesia-China intra-industry trade for textile products, using the panel data method. The Intra-industry Trade (IIT) is measured using the Grubel and Lloyd index and will be decomposed into horizontal IIT, Lower Vertical IIT, and Upper Vertical IIT. Unlike most previous empirical studies, this article estimates that the agreement negatively and significantly affects the horizontal, lower side of vertical IIT and upper side of vertical IIT. This study also identifies other IIT determinants as a controlled variable, such as the economic size gap, trade openness, trade imbalance, and COVID-19 conditions. The result indicates that the differences in economic size significantly dampen the horizontal IIT and lower-vertical IIT. Furthermore,  the increased trade imbalance seems to decrease all IIT types. Meanwhile, trade openness is found to enhance horizontal IIT, Lower Vertical IIT, and Upper Vertical IIT. The COVID-19 condition also leads to LVIIT and UVIIT engagement."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak penerapan ACFTA terhadap neraca perdagangan bilateral Indonesia-China dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. Penelitian ini menggunakan data time series dari triwulan 1 tahun 2000 sampai dengan triwulan 4 tahun 2011 dengan menggunakan metode estimasi Error Correction Model (ECM). Perjanjian ACFTA disahkan pada 1 tahun 2005, sedangkan dampak penerapannya pada neraca perdagangan bilateral Indonesia-China secara efektif adalah sejak 1 Januari tahun 2008. Oleh karena itu, dalam penelitian ini dibuat dua model regresi untuk dua periode ACFTA. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa variabel ACFTA mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap neraca perdagangan bilateral Indonesia-China hanya dalam jangka panjang dan untuk periode ACFTA yang dimulai 1 Januari 2008.

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The aim of this study is to know the impact of ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) on Indonesia?s-China Balance of Trade in the long term and in the short term. This study uses time series data from 2000 to 2011 (quarterly basis) and the estimation method used is Error Correction Model (ECM). ACFTA agreement was legally implemented starting from January 1, 2005, whereas the impact of the implementation on Indonesia?s-China Balance of Trade was effectively on January 1, 2008. Therefore, there are two regression models for two periods of ACFTA agreement. The result of this study is variable ACFTA has significant effect to Indonesia?s-China Balance of Trade only in the long term and for period of ACFTA agreement starting from January 1, 2008."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisa efek trade creation dan trade diversion dari implementasi ACFTA terhadap perdagangan bilateral ekspor dan impor produk industri kreatif fesyen dan kerajinan di Indonesia dengan 15 negara mitra dagang yang termasuk anggota ACFTA dan non-anggota ACFTA selama periode tahun 2000-2013. Penelitian ini diestimasi menggunakan model gravity yang dimodifikasi dengan menambahkan variabel dummy FTA sebagai proxi dari dampak implementasi ACFTA yaitu trade creation, export trade diversion dan import trade diversion.Hasil estimasi penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa implementasi ACFTA memberikan efek trade creation, export trade diversion dan import trade diversion yang positif dan signifikan terhadap perdagangan produk industri kreatif fesyen dan kerajinan di Indonesia. Hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa implementasi ACFTA tidak hanya menciptakan efek trade creation dengan meningkatkan perdagangan intra-regional antar anggota ACFTA, tetapi juga dapat menciptakan trade expansion (positive trade diversion) dengan meningkatkan ekspansi perdagangan extra-regional dengan negara non-anggota ACFTA baik dari sisi ekspor dan impor.

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This research aims to analyzes the effects of trade creation dan trade diversion of the ACFTA implementation on the bilateral trade for export and import of creative industries products for fashion and craft in Indonesia with 15 countries of trading partners including member and non-member of ACFTA over the period 2000-2013. This study estimated using gravity model modified with FTA dummy variables as proxi of the impact of ACFTA implementation, namely trade creation, export trade diversion, and import trade diversion.The results show that the effects of trade creation, export trade diversion and import trade diversion are significant and positive on the trade of creative industries products for fashion and craft in Indonesia. It indicates that ACFTA implementation not only increasing trade creation of intra-regional trade among member countries, but also increasing trade expansion (positive trade diversion) of extra-regional trade with non-member countries in terms of export and import."

"AFTA is basically a good thing for Indonesia considering Indonesia has a huge potential when compared to other Countries Country in ASEAN. It can be seeded by Indonesia is that Indonesia has a very human resource overflow. When AFTA goes into effect so we can imagine how many labor from Indonesia who can work in other countries. The enermous potential possessed by Indonesia has not been put to good use. We have the human resources very much, but not the educated and well-trained labor. So are the potential in the field of tourism has yet to be developed because it is still constrained in the fields of infrastructure and facilities. Similarly, the agricultural sector is not well developed, it is visible from a few ingredients must import them basic necessities in the field of agriculture to other countries. Indonesia must think back to propose postponement of the implementation of the AFTA, because if not, then no advantage to be gained by Indonesia but losses. A delay was possible if other countries also agree to the delay. Therefore it is necessary a good lobbying so that the other countries agree to do the delays."

"Sejak kelahiran ASEAN-China Free trade area (ACFTA) pada tahun 2002, gagasan tersebut tela memancing banyak pertanyaan. Mengapa ACFTA perlu disepakati? Apa pula manfaatnya pada ekonomi dan pembangunan negara-negara ASEAN? Bagaimana pengaruhnya terhadap daya saing negara-negara ASEAN yang rendah terkecuali Singapore dan Malaysia? Gaung pertanyaan ini sejak awal 2010 muncul lebih nyaring karena ketentuan pasar bebas di Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore. Sedangkan negara-negara yang belakangan bergabung dengan ASEAN seperti Kamboja, Laos, Myanmar, dan Vietnam muai menerapkannya lima tahun kemudian. Tulisan ini membahas masalah-masalah yang muncul dari pertanyaan-pertanyaan di atas dan juga memberikan berbagai solusi dalam mengatasi dilema yang timbul dari penerapan ACFTA tersebut. "