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"[ABSTRAKPenelitian ini meneliti pengaruh faktor makroekonomi; yaitu perubahan GDP, perubahan real lending rate (BI rate), dan perubahan sovereign debt to GDP; dan pengaruh faktor spesifik bank, yaitu bad management, skimping, diversification opportunity, too big to fail, bad management II, procyclical credit policy, tight control terhadap perubahan NPL di Indonesia. Observasi dilakukan terhadap 105 bank umum yang diakui oleh BI di Indonesia selama kurun waktu 2003-2011 secara kuartal. Data yang digunakan merupakan data panel yang bersumber dari Datastream, Eikon, dan laporan keuangan perusahaan. Dengan menggunakan model estimasi First Difference Generalized Method of Moment (GMM), didapatkan hasil bahwa perubahan GDP, perubahan sovereign debt to GDP, skimping, diversification opportunity, bad management II, dan tight control (untuk ownership concentration lebih dari 25% hingga 50%) secara signifikan berpengaruh negatif terhadap perubahan NPL. Di sisi lain perubahan real lending rate (BI rate), too big to fail, dan tight control (untuk ownership concentration lebih dari 10% hingga 25% dan lebih dari 50%) secara signifikan berpengaruh positif terhadap perubahan NPL. Sedangkan bad management dan procyclical credit policy tidak secara signifikan berpengaruh terhadap perubahan NPL.

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ABSTRACTThis research examines the effect of macroeconomic factors, such as GDP growth, real lending rate (BI rate) growth, and change in sovereign debt to GDP; and the effect of bank-specific factors, such as bad management, skimping, diversification opportunity, too big to fail, bad management II, procyclical credit policy, tight control to the change of NPL in Indonesia. Observation is done to 105 bank in Indonesia within period of 2003-2011. By using panel data of macroeconomic and bank-specific factors from Datastream, Eikon, and financial report. By using First Difference Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) estimation model, research finds that GDP growth, change in sovereign debt to GDP, skimping, diversification, bad management II, dan tight control (for ownership concentration more than 25% until 50%) has negative effect on the change in NPL. In other side, real lending rate (BI rate) growth, too big to fail, and tight control (for ownership concentration more than 10% until 25% and more than 50%) has positive effect on the change in NPL. It also discovers that bad management and procyclical credit policy has no effect on the change in NPL., This research examines the effect of macroeconomic factors, such as GDP growth, real lending rate (BI rate) growth, and change in sovereign debt to GDP; and the effect of bank-specific factors, such as bad management, skimping, diversification opportunity, too big to fail, bad management II, procyclical credit policy, tight control to the change of NPL in Indonesia. Observation is done to 105 bank in Indonesia within period of 2003-2011. By using panel data of macroeconomic and bank-specific factors from Datastream, Eikon, and financial report. By using First Difference Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) estimation model, research finds that GDP growth, change in sovereign debt toGDP, skimping, diversification, bad management II, dan tight control (for ownership concentration more than 25% until 50%) has negative effect on the change in NPL. In other side, real lending rate (BI rate) growth, too big to fail, and tight control (for ownership concentration more than 10% until 25% and more than 50%) has positive effect on the change in NPL. It also discovers that bad management and procyclical credit policy has no effect on the change in NPL.]"

"This study aims to analyze the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on commercial banking non-performing loans during the study period from January 2018 to December 2022. The regression method used is multiple regression with Non-performing loans, BI7DRR Interest Rate, Gross Domestic Product, Unemployment Rate as a control variable and the dummy variable COVID-19 as the main independent variable and Non-performing loans as the dependent variable are used in the analysis. The results of this study show that the COVID-19 pandemic has a significant influence and a positive relationship with the NPL of Commercial Banks in Indonesia. Secondary data from the Bank of Indonesia and the Indonesian Financial Service Authority, over which a multi-regression analysis was performed. The results of the analysis showed a significant influence from the Gross domestic product and Unemployment that supports the Covid-19 variable in affecting Banking non-performing loans. The Covid-19 epidemic is harming economies around the world in all conceivable ways, including financial markets and institutions. The pandemic creates complex challenges for banks in particular, mostly through increases in default rates. This may be worse in developing countries with poor financial markets.

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Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh pandemi COVID-19 terhadap kredit bermasalah perbankan umum selama periode penelitian Januari 2018 hingga December 2022. Metode regresi yang digunakan adalah regresi berganda dengan data sekunder dari Bank Indonesia dan Otoritas Jasa Keuangan dilakukan analisis multi-regresi. Kredit bermasalah, Suku Bunga BI7DRR, Produk Domestik Bruto, Tingkat Pengangguran sebagai variable kontrol dan variabel dummy COVID-19 sebagai Independen variable utama dan Non performing loan sebagai variable dependent digunakan dalam analisis.Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa pandemi COVID-19 berpengaruh signifikan dan positif terhadap NPL bank umum di Indonesia. Dalam hasil regresi akhir menunjukkan terdapat pengaruh yang signifikan Produk Domestik Bruto dan Pengangguran yang mendukung variabel COVID dalam mempengaruhi kredit bermasalah perbankan. Epidemi COVID-19 merugikan ekonomi di seluruh dunia dengan segala cara yang dapat dibayangkan, termasuk pasar dan institusi keuangan. Pandemi menciptakan tantangan yang kompleks bagi bank khususnya, sebagian besar melalui kenaikan tingkat gagal bayar. Mungkin lebih buruk di negara berkembang dengan pasar keuangan yang buruk"

"Tujuan yang diharapkan dapat dicapai dari penelitian ini adalah untuk melihat pengaruh faktor internal (Capital Adequancy Ratio, Financing to Deposit Ratio, Pertumbuhan Pembiayaan dan Rasio Alokasi Pembiayaan Murabahah Terhadap Pembiayaan Profit Loss Sharing) dan Makro Ekonomi (Inflasi dan Kurs Rupiah Terhadap Dolar) terhadap Non Performing Financing perbankan syariah di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan data gabungan bank umum syariah dan unit usaha syariah dari statistik perbankan syariah dan indicator moneter yang dipublikasikan oleh Bank Indonesia periode Januari 2010 sampai April 2014.Hasil analisis data dengan menggunakan metode ECM (Error Correction Model) menyebutkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang Financing to Deposit Ratio berpengaruh positif terhadap Non Performing Financing, Rasio Alokasi Pembiayaan Murabahah Terhadap Pembiayaan Profit Loss Sharing berpengaruh negatif terhadap Non Performing Financing, Inflasi berpengaruh negatif terhadap Non Performing Financing dan Kurs Rupiah Terhadap Dolar berpengaruh positif terhadap Non Performing Financing perbankan syariah di Indonesia. Dalam jangka pendek Financing to Deposit Ratio berpengaruh positif terhadap Non Performing Financing dan Rasio Alokasi Pembiayaan Murabahah Terhadap Pembiayaan Profit Loss Sharing berpengaruh negatif terhadap Non Performing Financing perbankan syariah di Indonesia.

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The purpose of this research is to obtain evidence of whether the internal factors (Capital Adequacy Ratio, Financing to Deposit Ratio, Growth Funding and Allocation Ratio Against Murabahah Financing on Profit Loss Sharing) and Macro Economics (Inflation and Rupiah Against Dollar) the influence of macroeconomics (inflation and rupiah against dollar) on non performing financing islamic bank in Indonesia. The research obtained from combining islamic bank data, islamic businnes units stats of syariah bank and monetary indicators which published by bank of Indonesia during January 2010 to April 2014.From the analysis, the hipothesis by using ECM (Error Corection Model) results that the term of leght financing to deposit ratio, ratio allocation against Murabahah financing on profit loss sharing, inflation and rupiah against dollar effect the non performig financing islamic bank in Indonesia. Meanwhile, in the short term the financing to deposit ratio, ratio allocation against Murabahah financing on profit loss sharing, non performing financing was influencig on Islamic bank in Indonesia."

"Non-Performing Loan (NPL) merupakan indikator penting yang mencerminkan peran kredit bank dalam pertumbuhan ekonomi di dalam suatu negara. Pemerintah dan regulator menginginkan NPL yang rendah dan tingkat pertumbuhan kredit yang tinggi, sebagai sasaran untuk mencapai pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi dan inflasi yang rendah. Sektor keuangan Indonesia yang sedang menghadapi resesi ekonomi tentunya akan berdampak pada kinerja bank, terutama dalam hal pencapaian NPL. Skripsi ini mengkaji NPL perbankan nasional selama 2015 – 2020, serta menyusun model empiris yang dapat digunakan untuk memproyeksikan NPL di masa mendatang. Unit sampling adalah bank yang tergabung dalam kategori bank umum konvensional yang berjumlah sebanyak 104 bank. Data yang digunakan adalah data time series untuk variabel penelitian tahun 2015 – 2020, dan teknik analisis dalam penelitian ini menggunakan analisis regresi time series dengan model estimasi Ordinary Least Square (OLS). Hasil empiris menunjukkan bahwa variabel makroekonomi suku bunga, tingkat inflasi, nilai tukar, dan US Prime Rate berpengaruh signifikan secara parsial terhadap NPL, sedangkan PDB berpengaruh negatif dan tidak signifikan secara parsial terhadap NPL. Namun demikian, suku bunga, tingkat inflasi, PDB, nilai tukar, dan US Prime Rate berpengaruh signifikan dan positif terhadap NPL secara simultan. Peneliti menemukan bahwa proyeksi NPL untuk tahun 2021: untuk skenario pesimis NPL tetap pada 5,08%, pada skenario optimis NPL akan turun menjadi 3,77%, dan pada skenario moderat NPL juga diprediksi akan turun menjadi 4,43%.

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Non-Performing Loan (NPL) is an important indicator reflecting the role of bank credit in a country's economic growth. The government and regulators want low NPL and high credit growth rates, as intermediate targets to achieve high economic growth and low inflation. The Indonesian financial sector, which is facing an economic recession, will certainly have an impact on banking performance, especially in terms of achieving NPL. This thesis reviews the NPL of national banks during 2015 – 2020, as well as developing an empirical model that can be used to project NPL in the future. The sampling unit is banks that are incorporated into conventional commercial banks, of which the total number is 104 banks. The data used are time series data for the studying variables of years 2015 – 2020 which are observed, and the analysis technique in this study used time series regression analysis with the estimation model is Ordinary Least Square (OLS). The empirical results indicate that the macroeconomic variables exerting significant influence partially to NPL are interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate, and US Prime Rate, while GDP has a negative and insignificant effect partially both on NPL. However, the effect of interest rate, inflation rate, GDP, and also exchange rate and US Prime Rate simultaneously to NPL is significant and positive. Projecting NPL in 2021 the research found that in the pessimistic scenario, NPL remains 5.08%, in the optimistic scenario, NPL will decrease to 3.77%, and in the moderate scenario, NPL is also predicted that it will decrease to be 4.43%."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh faktor makroekonomi, yaitu pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB), perubahan nilai tukar mata uang, perubahan tingkat inflasi dan faktor internal bank, yaitu pangsa pasar dan strategi kredit terhadap tingkat kredit bermasalah (non-performing loans) pada bank umum terbuka di Indonesia. Pengujian hipotesis dilakukan dengan menggunakan regresi data panel model fixed effects dengan total sampel sebanyak 30 bank umum yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia selama triwulan pertama tahun 2009 sampai dengan triwulan keempat tahun 2013. Hasil dari penelitian ini menemukan bahwa pertumbuhan PDB dan pangsa pasar memiliki pengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat kredit bermasalah, sedangkan nilai tukar mata uang dan strategi kredit memiliki pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap kredit bermasalah. Hasil dari penelitian ini juga menunjukkan bahwa perubahan tingkat inflasi tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap tingkat kredit bermasalah.

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The aim of this research is to analyze the effects of macroeconomic factors, namely gross domestic product (GDP) growth, changes in exchange rates, changes in inflation rate and bank internal factors, namely market shares and credit strategies on non performing loans in Indonesian listed banking companies. Hypotesis-testing is done using fixed effects model of panel regression with a total sample of 30 banks listed at Indonesia Stock Exchange during the first quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2013. The finding reveal that growth of GDP, and market shares have a negative and significant impact on non-performing loans, while changes in exchange rates and credit strategies have a positive and significant impact on nonperforming loans. The result of this research shows that changes in inflation rates has no significant impact on non-performing loans."

"Tujuan dari penelitian ini untuk mengetahui pengaruh faktor makroekonomi terhadap risiko kebangkrutan pada perusahaan-perusahaan non- keuangan yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Dalam penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder kuantitatif serta diuji menggunakan panel data regression dengan model Fixed Effect. Hasil penelitian ini adalah  faktor makroekonomi berupa inflasi,  Produk Domestik Bruto , dan Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap USD, berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap  risiko kebangkrutan perusahaan.

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The purpose of this study is to study the macroeconomic effects on backruptcy risk on non-financial companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. In this study using quantitative secondary data and panel data regression with the Fixed Effects model. The results of this study are macroeconomic factors consisting of inflation, Gross Domestic Product, and the rupiah exchange rate to USD, and  Firm Size significantly affects the risk of corporate bankruptcy."

"Makalah ini menganalisis hubungan pertumbuhan kredit terhadap risiko kredit yakni tingkatan dari non-performing loan pada 69 perbankan yang berada pada wilayah negara ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, dan Singapura). Risiko kredit perbankan sangat sensitif terhadap kendala keuangan di mana hubungannya terhadap kelancaran perbankan di dalam melaksanakan core bisnisnya. Di sisi lain, pertumbuhan kredit perbankan dapat mempengaruhi peningkatan NPL, tetapi pada titik tertentu, pertumbuhan kredit justru dapat mempengaruhi penurunan tingkatan NPL. Indikasi kredit macet ini dapat muncul apabila perbankan terkait memiliki kendala dari kredit yang diberikan dan juga kapasitas aset yang dimiliki oleh perbankan tersebut. Makalah ini menjelaskan bagaimana pertumbuhan kredit Bank dan ukuran perusahaan dapat mempengaruhi risiko yang terkait dengan kredit macet Bank. Dalam konteks makalah ini, model yang digunakan adalah estimator GMM, yang cocok untuk penelitian menggunakan variabel lagged sehingga pengaruh periode sebelumnya dapat dilihat secara signifikan. Untuk melihat lebih dalam efek NPL, menggunakan variabel status dapat memengaruhi NPL menjadi pengaruh yang lebih spesifik. Untuk menggambarkan efek dari pendekatan ini, penelitian dilakukan berdasarkan bank yang terdaftar di negara-negara ASEAN-5.

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This paper analyzes the relationship of credit growth to credit risk, namely the level of non-performing loans in 69 banks located in the ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, and Singapore). Bank credit risk is susceptible to financial constraints in which the relationship with the smooth running of the Bank in carrying out its core business. On the other hand, the growth of bank credit can affect the increase in NPLs, but at a certain point, credit growth can actually affect the decline in the level of NPLs. This indication of bad credit can arise if the related banks have constraints from the credit given and also the capacity of the assets owned by the Bank. This paper describes how the Bank's credit growth and the size of the firm can affect the risk related to the Bank's non-performing loan. In the context of this paper, the model used is the GMM estimator, which is suitable for research using lagged variables so that the influence of the previous period can be seen significantly. To take a more in-depth look at the effects of NPLs, using the selected variables can affect NPLs to be more specific influences. To illustrate the effect of this approach, research was conducted based on banks listed on ASEAN-5 countries. Analysis results prove that credit growth and firm size have a significant effect on non-performing loans. this is evidenced by the risk management development that occurred in ASEAN-5 countries."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak implementasi kebijakan makroprudensial Countercyclical Capital Buffer dan GWM LDR terhadap pertumbuhan kredit dan non performing loan di tingkat Industri maupun berdasarkan Kelompok BUKU modal inti perbankan Indonesia untuk periode 2006-2015. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Generalized Methods of Moments GMM untuk menganalisis dampak kebijakan makroprudensial. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa secara bersama-sama kedua instrumen secara signifikan mampu mengendalikan pertumbuhan kredit perbankan dan menurunkan rasio non performing loan.

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The objective of this research is to determine the effect of macroprudential policy Countercyclical Capital Buffer and Reserve Requirement based on Loan to Deposit Ratio towards credit growth and non performing loan ratio in industrial level and based on BUKU group. This reserach use Generalized Methods of Moments GMM ro analyze macroprudential policy effect. The result shows that both of instrument have significant effect to control excessive credit growth and lower non performing loan ratio."

"Determinan dari non-performing loans (NPL) sudah memiliki literatur pendahulu yang terus berkembang. Namun, sedikit penelitian yang melihat pengaruh ini pada tingkat disagregat. Gosh (2017) melakukan analisis yang menemukan perbedaan pengaruh antara variabel makroekonomi dan kondisi neraca dengan kategori NPL yang berbeda. Penelitian ini melihat determinan NPL dari setiap jenis kredit yaitu kredit investasi, modal kerja, dan konsumsi di Indonesia dengan menggunakan data seluruh bank konvensinal selama periode 2013-2018. Penelitian ini juga melihat lebih lanjut dampak pertumbuhan kredit dengan menggunakan lag satu kuartal, dua kuartal, dan empat kuartal terhadap NPL. Dengan menggunakan one-step system GMM, penelitian ini menemukan setiap jenis kredit memiliki pengaruh determinan yang berbeda terhadap pertumbuhan NPL. Pertumbuhan kredit memiliki pengaruh tidak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan NPL secara agregat namun secara disagregat, memiliki pengaruh signifikan yang berbeda-beda untuk setiap jenis kreditnya.

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The determinants of non-performing loans (NPL) already has a growing literature. However, very few studies have explored the issue at the disaggregate level. Gosh (2017) analysis unmasks important differences in the inter-relationships between macroeconomic and balance sheet conditions and different categories of NPLs.

The present study examines NPLs for each type of credit in namely investment, working capital, and consumption credits in Indonesia using data of all conventional banks over the period 2013-2018. The paper further explores the impact of credit growth using lags of one quarter, two quarter, and four quarter on NPLs.

By implementing one-step system GMM, the paper finds each type of credit has different determinants on the growth of NPL. Credit growth also has different impact on the NPL based on the number of lags and type of credit."

"[Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui manajemen risiko pada Bank bank Umum yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia BEI pada tahun 2010-2014 dengan memperhatikan faktor risiko dan profitabilitas bank Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder yang diperoleh dari PDEB FEUI Sampel yang digunakan berjumlah 29 bank umum Penelitian ini menggunakan metode panel regression Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Delta Non Performing Asset DNPA ukuran bank SIZE Delta Loan DLOAN Delta Gross Domestic Product DGDP dan Loan Loss Allowance ALW memiliki pengaruh signifikan positif terhadap Loan Loss provision LLP Sedangkan untuk Delta Unemployment DUNEMP tidak memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan pada Loan Loss provision LLP Kata kunci Loan Loss provision Delta Non Performing Asset Size Delta Loan Delta Gross Domestic Product Delta Unemployment Allowance.

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This study aims to determine risk management at commercial banks listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange IDX in 2010-2014 focused to risk factor and Bank profitability The secondary data was taken from PDEB FEUI the sample were 29 banks which listed in IDX This study uses panel regression The results showed that Delta Non Performing Asset DNPA Size Delta Loan DLOAN Delta Gross Domestic Product DGDP and Loan Loss Allowance ALW has a positive significant influence on the Loan Loss Provision LLP While the Delta Unemployment has no significant influence on Loan Loss Provision LLP., This study aims to determine risk management at commercial banks listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange IDX in 2010 2014 focused to risk factor and Bank profitability The secondary data was taken from PDEB FEUI the sample were 29 banks which listed in IDX This study uses panel regression The results showed that Delta Non Performing Asset DNPA Size Delta Loan DLOAN Delta Gross Domestic Product DGDP and Loan Loss Allowance ALW has a positive significant influence on the Loan Loss Provision LLP While the Delta Unemployment has no significant influence on Loan Loss Provision LLP ]"