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"Tesis ini ditujukan untuk mengetahui pengaruh faktor fundamental ekonomi Indonesia Periode 2000:1 ? 2009:12 dengan Vector Autoregresive (VAR). Beralihnya sistem nilai tukar rupiah dari sistem mengambang terkendali (managed floating exchange rate) ke sistem nilai tukar mengambang penuh (floating exchange rate) memberikan dampak terhadap fluktuasi nilai tukar baik dilihat dari segi arah maupun magnitude-nya. Faktor fundamental ekonomi diduga mempunyai pengaruh yang cukup kuat terhadap pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika. Pengaruh faktor fundamental terhadap nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika, selama periode pengamatan, secara umum sesuai dengan teori. Hasil yang agak berbeda ditunjukkan oleh investasi asing langsung, dimana guncangan pada variabel ini direspon sesuai teori pada awal periode, secara umum respon yang terjadi justru sebaliknya.

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This thesis aimed to elucidate the effect of Indonesia's economic fundamentals Period 2000:1 - 2009:12 with Vector Autoregresive (VAR). Shifting system of exchange rate from managed floating exchange rate to a fully floating exchange rate system affect the exchange rate fluctuations both in terms of its direction and magnitude.. Economic fundamentals are expected to have strong influence on the movement of the rupiah against the U.S. dollar. Fundamental factors to influence the exchange rate of rupiah against the U.S. dollar, during the observation period, in general accordance with theory. Somewhat different results shown by foreign direct investment, where the shocks on these variables respond according to the theory in the early period, general response that occurs just the opposite."

"Tesis ini membahas pengaruh fluktuasi nilai tukar rupiah-dolar AS terhadap perdagangan Indonesia-Amerika. Peristiwa krisis ekonomi |997 memporakporandakan perekonomian Indonesia. Melemahnya rupiah mengganggu kinerja ekonomi nasional. Bagaimana pengamh flulctuasi nilai tukar dolar AS-rupiah terhadap intemasional Amerika-Indonesia? Penelitian ini benujuan umuk mengetahui bagaimana hubungan fluktuasi nilai tukar dolar AS-nlpiah terhadap nilai ekspor-impor barang Indonesia-Amerika. Penelitian ini bersifat lcuantitatif dengan rentang data |990-2006 dan menggunal-can double log mutlmle regression model.Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa fluktuasi nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS berpengaruh positif terhadap nilai ekspor dan negatif terhadap impor barang Indonesia-Amerika. Setiap terjadi apresiasi/depresiasi nilai tukar dolar AS terhadap rupiah sebesar I%, maka nilai ekspor barang Indonesia ke Amerika naik/turun 0,30%. Sementara setiap rupiah menguat sebesar I%, import barang Indonesia dari Amerika turun sebesar 0,40% dan sebaliknya

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This thesis discusses on the influence ofthe fluctuation of the exchange rate of rupiah-US dollar on export-import of Indonesia-America. The purpose of this study is to understand how the influence of the fluctuation of rupiah-US dollar on the trade between Indonesia-America. The research method is quantitative analysis using 1990-2006 time series data quarterly. The method is double log multiple regression model.

The result of research shows that the fluctuation of exchange rate rupiah-US dollar influences the value of Indonesia-US? trade. Every appreciation/depreciation of 1% of rupiah to US dollar, then the value of goods export of Indonesia toUS increase/decrease as big as 0,30%. Every appreciation of rupiah to US dollar I%, teh value of goods import of Indonesia from US decreases 0,40% and the other way."

"Pengaruh nilai tukar terhadap pertumbuhan dan ekspor memiliki jawaban yang inkonklusif tergantung pada variabel-variabel yang digunakan untuk menjelaskannya dan negara yang dijadikan sampel. Untuk kasus Indonesia, volatilitas ekspor berpengaruh negatif pada pertumbuhan output. Ketidakmampuan meredam fluktuasi ekspor akan berdampak buruk pada pertumbuhan Indonesia. Dua faktor yang dapat mempengaruhi volatilitas ekspor ini adalah volatilitas nilai tukar riil dan sistem nilai tukar. Untuk mengurangi volatilitas ekspor, maka stabilitas nilai tukar riil dan sistem nilai tukar managed floating menjadi salah satu solusi yang dapat diterapkan di Indonesia.

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The impact of real exchange rate to the exports volatility and growth are inconclusive discussion. It depends on variables using in their research and countries economies characteristic to be sample. For Indonesia exports volatility has negative impact to the output growth. A disability to minimize exports volatility aggravate for Indonesian growth. There are two determinants exports volatility are real exchange rate volatility and regime. Real exchange rate stability and managed floating needed as a one of solution to lessen exports volatility."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan perubahan diskon/premium ADR dari saham asal Indonesia yang sudah melakukan cross-listing/dual-listing di BEI dan NYSE dengan perubahan nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar AS. Hubungan tersebut digambarkan kedalam sebuah model regresi dan selanjutnya digunakan untuk memprediksi niai tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar AS dimasa mendatang. Dalam penelitian ini juga mengevaluasi model tersebut dan menganalisis akurasi prediksinya. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian dengan menggunakan pasangan saham dan ADR Indosat dan Telkom diperoleh kesimpulan bahwa hasil bahwa prediksi nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar AS dengan menggunakan diskon/premium ADR menghasilkan prediksi yang lebih tepat ketimbang random walk.

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The purpose of this research is to analyze the relation between ADR discount/premium change of Indonesian stocks that have been listed in IDX and NYSE with IDR/USD exchange rate change. The relation described on regression model is proceed to make prediction of future IDR/UDS exchange rate. This research is continued by evaluation the regression model and also the predictive quality. Based on research using pair of stock and ADR Indosat and Telkom we can conclude that prediction of IDR/USD excgane rate with using ADR discount/premium produce more accurate prediction that random walk."

"The literature is trying to explain the effectiveness of monetary policy in Indonesia in influencing the exchange rate under fixed and flexible exchange rate regime. The analysis is combined with their capital mobility relationship. The explanation based on the Mundell's famous trinity : The incompatible among fixed exchange rate, independent monetary policy and perfect capital mobility. The object of the research is Indonesia exchange rate experience between 1970-1994. Under the condition of sticky domestic price level and uncovered purchasing power parity, by using the two-countries asset-market model, the estimation of Indonesia exchange rate movement under fixed exchange rate regime (1971.1-1978.3) proved the Mundell's theorem, that the monetary policy does not compatible with the fixed exchange rate, while the liberalization of capital account did not followed by the opening of capital market, which made the condition of imperfect capital mobility because the capital is easy to move out but hard to move in. The condition was exacerbated with the financial repression at the time. Meanwhile under the preliminary period of flexible exchange rate, besides the imperfect capital mobility condition issue whis is caused by the not-well developing capital market, there is also a sequencing issue which impede the monetary policy. The issue was due to the lateness of the government to move the financial barriers under financial repression : The peg of interest rate and the peg of credit ceiling. While the flexible exchange rate regime had begun on the late of 1978, the financial repression barriers just removed out in the mid of 1983. One compulsory macro-economic condition which has to be fulfilled in order the monetary policy to have effectiveness in influencing the exchange rate under the flexible regime is the ability of interest rate to move up and down as needed. Otherwise, the result is somewhat alike with the monetary policy under the fixed exchange rate. This is shown up by the estimation in the period 1978.3-1983.2. This also explain why the 1982 monetary policy did not have the influence on the nominal exchange rate fluctuation, but succesfully made the inflation move slowlier. The estimation under flexible exchange rate after 1983 shows that the monetary policy is compatible with the flexible exchange rate, but still before 1988, the capital market had not been developed. The capital market was develop after the 1988 deregulation policy and it was integrated with the international market after 1992. This explain that some of the monetary policy had have the influence on the small fluctuation of the nominal exchange rate. Among those are the 1987 sterilitation policy and the 1990 tight money policy. While the 1991 sterilization policy, did not create any fluctuation on the nominal exchange rate. A small apreciation at the end of 1993 1 believed, was caused by the movement of short run capital. The estimation for the causality of the monetary policy and capital mobility to the exchange rate has shown that for the observation period, the monetary policies which have the effect on the variance of the exchange rate are the removed of the peg of the interest rate out, the sterilization policy and the 1988 reserve requirement policy. Capital mobility did not have the effect to the exchange rate variance."

"Sebagai konsekuensi global value chains GVC , nilai tukar dan volatilitasnya menjadi semakin penting dalam memengaruhi output suatu negara. Sebuah pertanyaan menarik yang kemudian mengemuka adalah mengenai perubahan hubungan nilai tukar terhadap output dalam tren GVC.Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menginvestigasi bagaimana nilai tukar dan volatilitasnya dalam memengaruhi output, dan juga untuk mengekplorasi dampak partisipasi GVC terhadap output. Penelitian ini menggunakan data panel yang mencakup lima negara di Asia, meliputi Indonesia, Thailand, Jepang, Korea Selatan, dan Malaysia, dengan data deret waktu tahunan periode 1990-2015. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah pendekatan ekonometrika dengan System Generalized Method of Moment SYS-GMM.Hasil penelitian mengungkap bahwa, pertama, volatilitas nilai tukar memiliki hubungan negatif terhadap output. Kedua, ditemukan bahwa apresiasi nilai tukar meningkatkan output secara signifikan. Ketiga, peningkatan partisipasi GVC secara signifikan meningkatkan output. Oleh karena itu, dampak nilai tukar terhadap output sangat bergantung pada pola GVC masing-masing negara.

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As a consequence of the global value chains GVC , exchange rate and its volatility becomes more important in influencing the output of a country. An interesting question that then surfaced was regarding the alteration of exchange rate relationship towards output in the GVC trend.This study aims to investigate how the exchange rate and its volatility affect output, and also explores the impact of GVC participation on output. We employed panel data which covers five countries in Asia, including Indonesia, Thailand, Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia, with annual data series through 1990 2015. The analytical method used in this study is the econometric approach with System Generalized Method of Moment SYS GMM.The result reveals that, first, the exchange rate volatility has a negative relationship to output. Second, the appreciation of exchange rate is found to increase output significantly. Third, the increase of GVC participation is significantly lead to increase output. Therefore, the impact of exchange rate on output depends very much on the GVC pattern in respective country."