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"Penyusunan tesis ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah pembayaran utang luar negeri swasta dapat berdampak pada penentuan nilai tukar Rupiah.Penelitian tersebut didasari pertimbangan bahwa ketergantunan sektor swasta Indonesia terhadap pembiayaan dari luar negeri masih relatif tinggi, sehingga jumlah valuta asing yang diperlukan untuk membayar utang luar negeri juga semakin meningkat. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan pendekatan moneter, sehingga pada tesis ini juga akan diuji dampak selisih jumlah uang beredar, output riil dan suku bunga antara Indonesia dan Amerika terhadap nilai tukar Rupiah. Model ekonometrika yang digunakan adalah ordinary least squares dengan menggunakan data triwulanan pada periode 2002-2009. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pembayaran utang luar negeri swasta tidak mempengaruhi nilai tukar Rupiah. Pergerakan nilai tukar Rupiah lebih dipengaruhi oleh variabel selisih jumlah uang beredar dan selisih output riil antara Indonesia dan Amerika.

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This thesis is intended to analyze the impact of private external debt repayment on the Rupiah exchange rate. The thesis?s background is the high dependence of the Indonesian private sector on external financing and the increasing need for foreign exchage to fulfill these external obligations. As we used the monetary model, this study was also intended to analyze the impact of the differences in money supply, real output and interest rate between Indonesia and the United States. We applied ordinary least squares method and used secondary data for the period 2002-2009. The results show that private external debt repayment does not influence the Rupiah exchage rate. The Rupiah?s volatility was mainly affected by the differences in money supply and riil output between Indonesia and the United States."

"Parallel market exchange rate has a very important role in the economy. The definition of Parallel market or Black market is buying or selling of products and commodities, or engaging in exchange of foreign currencies in violation of government restriction. The purpose of this illegal transaction is usually to avoid the tax government imposes on the transactions. The crucial thing parallel plays in the economy is that it influences both the domestic transaction, through which the domestic monetary system works, and the international transaction, which led to the inequilibrium of balance of payment. There are many causes which stimulate the emergence of demand and supply of parallel market foreign exchange. Widespread trade restrictions and foreign exchange controls have resulted in inefficient patterns of resource use and led to the emergence of parallel markets in goods and foreign currency in many developing countries. The evidence collected over the past few years has shown that current account restrictions (including import licences, foreign exchange allocations, and import deposit requirements) create incentives for illegal transactions, such as smuggling and fake invoicing, as well as capital flight and capital inflows via unofficial channel. This paper examines the implication of the existence of illegal trade transactions and parallel currency markets for short-run policymaking in Indonesia, using a macroeconomic model that incorporates currency substitution features and forward-looking rational expectations. By using the Agenor model, a type of simultaneous-equation simulation model, and the two-stage least square method to estimate the parameter of the model, we found that parallel market for foreign exchange is statistically significant in Indonesia. It is shown that the existence of parallel market influences the economic structure and the adjustment process on the policy shock government imposes on. It is shown econometrically that the macroeconomic model used in this study is stable and valid. It means that the model is able to explain the presumed phenomenon quite satisfactorily. Therefore, this model can be used as an alternative approach to simple macroeconomic model building, which incorporating the parallel market exchange rate phenomenon. In addition, this model is also developed incorporating the fully anticipated policy, or rational expectation, and currency substitution features."

"Penelitian ini membahas tentang kemampuan Inflation Targeting Framework dalam menurunkan derajat Exchange Rate Pass-Through di Indonesia dari tahun 1998 hingga tahun 2008. Penulis ingin mengetahui apakah penerapan Inflation Targeting Framework yang dilakukan oleh Bank Indonesia dapat menurunkan derajat pass-through baik dalam jangka pendek maupun dalam jangka panjang. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah Ordinary Least Squares. Hasil penelitiannya menunjukkan bahwa penerapan Inflation Targeting Framework terbukti dapat menurunkan pass-through dalam jangka pendek, tetapi tidak terbukti dapat menurunkan pass-through dalam jangka panjang.

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This study discusses about the ability of the Inflation Targeting Framework in lowering degree of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil from 1998 until 2008. The author would like to know whether the application of the Inflation Targeting Framework conducted by Bank Indonesia could reduce the degree of pass-through in both the short term and the long term. Research method used was Ordinary Least squares. The results indicate that the application of the Inflation Targeting Framework can lower pass-through in the short term, but cannot lower the pass-through in the long term."

"Krisis nilai tukar yang melanda suatu negara dapat dilihat dari pergerakan indikator ekonomi negara tersebut. Oleh karena itu, dibutuhkan sebuah sistem peringatan dini untuk mencegah terjadinya krisis nilai tukar tersebut. Analisis pergerakan indikator ekonomi tersebut berguna agar pengambilan kebijakan dapat efektif dan efisien mengurangi peluang terjadinya krisis nilai tukar. Analisis terhadap beberapa kombinasi indikator ekonomi di Indonesia pada periode tahun 1990 hingga 2008 dimana pada periode tersebut terjadi krisis nilai tukar 1997 dan krisis keuangan global, menghasilkan sebuah sistem peringatan dini yang baik sehingga dapat dijadikan prediktor untuk terjadinya krisis nilai tukar di Indonesia.

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Currency crisis can be seen from the movement of economic indicators of the country. Therefore, it is necessary to have an early warning system to prevent the occurrence of the currency crisis. Movement analysis of economic indicators is useful so that the policy can be effective and efficient to reduce the occurrence of the exchange rate crisis. Analysis of some combination of economic indicators in Indonesia within the period 1990 to 2008 in which occurred 1997 currency crisis and the global financial crisis, resulting a good early warning system which also can be used as a good predictor for the occurrence of the currency crisis in Indonesia."

"Sejak krisis ekonomi di Asia Tenggara tahun 1997-1998, Indonesia mengubah sistem nilai tukar dari sistem mengambang terkendali (managed floating exchange rate) menjadi sistem mengambang bebas (free floating exchange rate). Dengan penerapan sistem free floating rate, maka nilai tukar rupiah menjadi lebih fluktuatif. Sehubungan dengan tingginya exchange rate pass through di Indonesia dan ITF yang diterapkan di Indonesia, intervensi pada nilai tukar pun diperlukan. Intervensi bank sentral dalam pasar valuta asing tersebut merupakan salah satu tanda suatu negara melakukan fear of floating. Studi ini meneliti apakah benar praktek fear of floating terjadi di Indonesia. Pengujian ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan model OLS yang diadopsi dari model Frankel dan Wei (1994).

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Indonesian government has changed its exchange rate system from managed floating exchange rate to free floating exchange rate since the economic crisis hit most of the south east asian country in 1997-1998. This has led the exchange rate of Indonesian rupiah to became more fluctuatif against other currency. As exchange rate pass through is higher and the application of ITF, the exchange rate intervention by the central bank is needed to secure rupiah against other currency. This method, known as Fear Floating, is the method that used by country which applied the central bank?s intervention to the foreign exchange market. This study, using OLS model which is adapted from Frankel and Wei (1994), reveals the detail of whether Fear of Floating method is applied within Indonesian monetary system."

"Tesis ini membahas pengaruh fluktuasi nilai tukar rupiah-dolar AS terhadap perdagangan Indonesia-Amerika. Peristiwa krisis ekonomi |997 memporakporandakan perekonomian Indonesia. Melemahnya rupiah mengganggu kinerja ekonomi nasional. Bagaimana pengamh flulctuasi nilai tukar dolar AS-rupiah terhadap intemasional Amerika-Indonesia? Penelitian ini benujuan umuk mengetahui bagaimana hubungan fluktuasi nilai tukar dolar AS-nlpiah terhadap nilai ekspor-impor barang Indonesia-Amerika. Penelitian ini bersifat lcuantitatif dengan rentang data |990-2006 dan menggunal-can double log mutlmle regression model.Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa fluktuasi nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS berpengaruh positif terhadap nilai ekspor dan negatif terhadap impor barang Indonesia-Amerika. Setiap terjadi apresiasi/depresiasi nilai tukar dolar AS terhadap rupiah sebesar I%, maka nilai ekspor barang Indonesia ke Amerika naik/turun 0,30%. Sementara setiap rupiah menguat sebesar I%, import barang Indonesia dari Amerika turun sebesar 0,40% dan sebaliknya

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This thesis discusses on the influence ofthe fluctuation of the exchange rate of rupiah-US dollar on export-import of Indonesia-America. The purpose of this study is to understand how the influence of the fluctuation of rupiah-US dollar on the trade between Indonesia-America. The research method is quantitative analysis using 1990-2006 time series data quarterly. The method is double log multiple regression model.

The result of research shows that the fluctuation of exchange rate rupiah-US dollar influences the value of Indonesia-US? trade. Every appreciation/depreciation of 1% of rupiah to US dollar, then the value of goods export of Indonesia toUS increase/decrease as big as 0,30%. Every appreciation of rupiah to US dollar I%, teh value of goods import of Indonesia from US decreases 0,40% and the other way."

"Skripsi ini membahas mengenai faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi nilai tukar riil rupiah (RER) pada periode tahun 1990 kuartal pertama sampai dengan tahun 2007 kuartal ke empat. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Ordinary Least Square (OLS) dan Error Correction Model (ECM). Model yang digunakan dalam penelitian menggunakan variabel bebas suku bunga nominal (SBI), Produk Domestik Bruto Nominal (PDB), tingkat harga luar negeri (WPI_USA), dan variabel dummy krisis ekonomi Indonesia (CRISIS). Dari penelitian model jangka panjang dengan OLS diperoleh hasil bahwa variabel-variabel yang mempengaruhi nilai tukar riil rupiah (RER) dalam jangka panjang adalah SBI, PDB, dan WPI_USA. Sedangkan berdasarkan hasil regresi model jangka pendek dengan ECM, diperoleh hasil bahwa hanya variabel SBI dan CRISIS yang signifikan mempengaruhi nilai tukar riil rupiah (RER). Hasil penelitian menyimpulkan bahwa variabel yang paling mempengaruhi nilai tukar riil rupiah (RER) dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang adalah tingkat harga luar negeri (WPI_USA). Selain itu, nilai tukar riil rupiah (RER) dalam jangka pendek undervalued sehingga akan cenderung terapresiasi untuk menuju ke keseimbangan jangka panjangnya.

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The focus of this study is to analyze factors affecting real exchange rate in Indonesia within period 1990:1 - 2007:4. This study also wants to search which factors affects real exchange rate in Indonesia. The methods of research being used in the study are Ordinary Least Square and Error Correction Model. Model in this research uses independent variables, those are: nominal interest rates (SBI), Gross Domestic Product (PDB), foreign price level (WPI_USA), and dummy variable economic crisis in Indonesia (CRISIS). Result from long term regression with ordinary least square shows that variables which are significant in affecting real exchange rate are SBI, PDB, and WPI_USA. Meanwhile, based on error correction model in short term, variables which are significant in affecting real exchange rate are SBI and CRISIS. This research concludes that variable, most which affects real exchange rate is WPI_USA. Besides that, this research also concludes that real exchange rate (RER) in short term is undervalued so that it tends to appreciate in order to reach its long term equilibrium."