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"Penelitian ini mengkaji desain dan teknologi proses kilang BBM yang dapat mencapai spesifikasi produk sesuai kebutuhan BBM domestik di Indonesia, kelayakan nilai keekonomian proyek pembangunan kilang BBM di Indonesia, dan memetakan besaran risiko dan sensitivitas keekonomian proyek kilang BBM terhadap terhadap harga bahan baku produk di pasar. Teknik pengkajian menggunakan metode simulasi proses teknis, analisis keekonomian menggunakan estimasi parametrik, pemetaan risiko sesuai AS/NZS 4360 serta sensitivitas keekonomian berdasar fluktuasi harga crude oil. Kelayakan nilai keekonomian proyek pembangunan kilang BBM di Indonesia kapasitas 300 kbpd menggunakan pemrosesan primer dan sekunder dengan nilai investasi 9.289 juta $, menguntungkan dengan nilai keekonomian berupa NPV sebesar 41.306 juta $, IRR sebesar 13,8 %, dan PBP 9 (sembilan) tahun selama 30 (tiga puluh) tahun masa manfaat aset. Besaran risiko paling signifikan dalam proyek pembangunan kilang BBM di Indonesia adalah Pengadaan Lahan, Persetujuan desain oleh pemangku kepentingan, Perizinan lingkungan dari pemerintah, Perubahan regulasi dari pemerintah, dan Wanprestasi Kontraktor. Sensitivitas keekonomian proyek kilang BBM di Indonesia terhadap harga bahan baku produk di pasar ditunjukkan pada kenaikan harga umpan 2%, IRR proyek menyentuh MARR. Kemudian, pada kondisi harga minyak tertinggi yang tercatat, proyek masih bisa memberikan pengembalian yang menguntungkan karena NPV tidak pernah menyentuh 0 (nol).

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This research studies the probable process design and technologies for fuel refinery that can achieve product specification to meet domestic fuel demand in Indonesia, economics feasibility for building fuel refinery in Indonesia, and to register known risks and economics sensitivities of fuel refinery projects concerning crude oil prices as the main material intake in the market. The study conducted technical process simulation, economics analysis using parametric estimate, risk mapping as per AS/NZS 3460, followed by economics sensitivity analysis in crude oil price fluctuation. Economics feasibility for Fuel Refinery Development in Indonesia with a capacity of 300 kbpd using primary and secondary processing and total investment cost of 9.289 million $ is profitable with the economics parameter of NPV 41.306 million $, IRR 13,8% and PBP 9 (nine) years over 30 (thirty) years of asset lifetime. The most significant risk on the project is Land Procurement, Design approval from the stakeholders, Environmental Permit from the Government, Regulations changes from the Government, and Contractor Default of Agreement. Economics sensitivity of the project against raw materials market price is concluded at feed price increases at 2%, and project IRR touches the MARR. When the oil price soars on the highest price on the note, the project still could give profitable returns because the NPV never touches 0 (zero)."

"[ABSTRAKTantangan terbesar bagi Pertamina dalam memutakhirkan bisnisnya dan masukdalam era globalisasi adalah meningkatkan margin kilang. Salah satu upaya untukmeningkatkan margin kilang adalah mengoperasikan kilang dengan businessphilosophy yaitu operations excellence “handal, efisien dan optimal”. AdvancedProcess Control (APC) adalah teknologi yang dapat meningkatkan margin kilangmelalui efisiensi energi dan optimasi produk lebih berharga dengan cara stabilisasikontrol proses kemudian menggeser target operasi (set point) mendekati titikoperasi optimal. Metode statistika adalah salah satu metode yang dapat digunakanuntuk memperkirakan benefit implementasi APC. Dalam penelitian ini, metodestatistika digunakan untuk menganalisis dan mengidetifikasi historical data daribeberapa process variable selama setahun untuk membangun suatu modelimplementasi teknologi APC pada kilang minyak (refinery) khususnya CrudeDisttillation Unit (CDU). Model yang berhasil dibangun adalah modeldeterministik berdasarkan analisis probabilistik dan teori yang mendasarinya yangkemudian dikembangkan menjadi model stokastik untuk analisis resiko danketidak pastian menggunakan simulasi monte carlo. Penelitian ini berhasilmembuktikan bahwa implementasi teknologi APC layak dilakukan dan dapatmeningkatkan margin kilang Pertamina RU VI Balongan.

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ABSTRACTThe biggest challenge for Pertamina in updating its business and entered theglobalization era is increasing refinery margin. One effort to increase the refinerymargin is operating with a business philosophy so called operations excellence"reliable, efficient and optimal". Advanced Process Control (APC) is a kind oftechnology that can improve refinery margins through the energy efficiency andvaluable product optimization by way of process control stabilization then shiftsoperation target (set point) approaching the optimal operating point. Statisticalmethod is one method that can be applied to estimate the benefits of APCimplementation. In this research, statistical methods used to analyze and identifythe historical data from several process variables during one year to build amodel of APC technology utilization at refineries in particular Crude DistillationUnit (CDU). The model that has been successfully built is a deterministic modelbased on probabilistic analysis and underlying theories which later developedinto a stochastic model for risk analysis and uncertainty using Monte Carlosimulation. This research has successfully proving that implementation of APCtechnology feasible to conduced and can improve refinery margin of PertaminaRU VI Balongan., The biggest challenge for Pertamina in updating its business and entered theglobalization era is increasing refinery margin. One effort to increase the refinerymargin is operating with a business philosophy so called operations excellence"reliable, efficient and optimal". Advanced Process Control (APC) is a kind oftechnology that can improve refinery margins through the energy efficiency andvaluable product optimization by way of process control stabilization then shiftsoperation target (set point) approaching the optimal operating point. Statisticalmethod is one method that can be applied to estimate the benefits of APCimplementation. In this research, statistical methods used to analyze and identifythe historical data from several process variables during one year to build amodel of APC technology utilization at refineries in particular Crude DistillationUnit (CDU). The model that has been successfully built is a deterministic modelbased on probabilistic analysis and underlying theories which later developedinto a stochastic model for risk analysis and uncertainty using Monte Carlosimulation. This research has successfully proving that implementation of APCtechnology feasible to conduced and can improve refinery margin of PertaminaRU VI Balongan.]"