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" Since Indonesia does not have a good vita! statistics registrationsystem, fertility rates for the country as a whole and any administrativesubdivisions must be estimated indirectly. This paper summarizes estimatesresulting from the application of four brdu-ect estimation techniques to sevenIndonesian data sets. The own-children method, the last live birth method, thePalmore method and the Rele method were applied to all seven data sets:Estimates were prepared for the whole country and its three major regions for1971 through 1991. Estimates for individual provinces were also calculated forsome dates. In addition, estimates from other methods, available for somedates and subnational areas, are presented The data sets used are the 1971Census, the 1976 Intercensal Survey, the 1980 Census, the 1985 Intercensalway; the 1987 National Indonesia Contraceptive Prevalence Survey; the I 990Census, and the 1991 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey. The resultsshow that fertility in Indonesia fell by at least thirty-nine percent between 1971and 1991, but the various methods do not agree on the levels of fertility,particularly the earliest dates .By 1991, however; three estimates of the totalfertility rate for Indonesia as a whole are in as a whole are in a small range:from a low estimate of 3.22 to a high of 3.35. Fertility declined rapidly in allof the major regions of the country, although fertility started at higher levelsoutside of Java and Bali and hence remains at higher levels today despiterapid declines."

"ABSTRAKTingkat fertilitas di Indonesia telah gagal mengalami penurunan dalam tiga periode Survei Demografi dan Kesehatan Indonesia (SDKI) berturut-turut, yakni 2002, 2007, dan 2012. Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi terjadinya kemandekan penurunan tingkat fertilitas di Indonesia pada tahun 2002-2012 dengan menggunakan metode OLS dan data panel. Hasil estimasi regresi menunjukkan bahwa kemandekan penurunan fertilitas dipengaruhi oleh lambatnya penurunan tingkat angka kematian bayi, lambatnya penurunan tingkat unmet need kontrasepsi, dan lambatnya penurunan tingkat kelahiran di usia remaja. Namun, lambatnya penurunan tingkat kelahiran di usia remaja akan berpengaruh terhadap tingkat perubahan fertilitas apabila terjadi bersamaan dengan lambatnya penurunan angka kematian bayi dan tingkat unmet need kontrasepsi. Temuan pada analisis tingkat provinsi menujukkan bahwa Provinsi Papua dan Papua Barat merupakan provinsi dengan laju kenaikan tingkat fertilitas tertinggi yang disertai dengan tingginya laju tiga variabel yang berkontribusi pada terjadinya kemandekan penurunan fertilitas.

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ABSTRACTFertility decline in Indonesia had been stalled for three consecutive Demographic Health Surveys (2002,2007, and 2012). This study is aimed to probe the determinants of stalling fertility decline in Indonesia occurring in 2002-2012 by employing panel data analysis using ordinary least square regression. It is discovered that stalling fertility decline in Indonesia is attributed to sluggish decline in infant mortality rate, unmet need of contraception, and adolescent fertility. However, sluggish adolescent fertility decline will significantly affect the occurrence of stalling fertility decline only if either sluggish mortality decline or sluggish unmet need decline exists. In regional level, Papua and West Papua are regions possessing relatively large increase in fertility rate and the three factors affecting the occurrence of stalling fertility decline"