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"ABSTRAKKrisis Keuangan Asia (AFC) 1997-98 dan Krisis Keuangan Global (GFC) 2008 telah mendorong turbulensi ekonomi dan mata uang negara-negara ASEAN-5. Fenomena ini meningkatkan kerentanan fundamental ekonomi makro dan memicu peneliti untuk membangun Indikator Peringatan Dini (EWI) sebagai alat untuk mencegah terjadinya krisis mata uang. Skripsi ini akan membandingkan 9 perilaku indikator ekonomi makro dari sektor domestik, eksternal, dan kerentanan moneter dan keuangan di negara-negara ASEAN-5 yang meningkatkan kemungkinan krisis mata uang terjadi, menggunakan matriks ERPD dan regresi logit biner pada periode AFC dan GFC. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan variabel sektor eksternal signifikan dalam meningkatkan kemungkinan krisis mata uang terjadi di negara-negara ASEAN-5 selama periode AFC dan GFC. Rasio impor terhadap cadangan devisa adalah indikator yang paling signifikan dan memiliki dampak positif pada kemungkinan terjadinya krisis. Semakin besar impor ke cadangan meningkatkan tekanan nilai tukar dan meningkatkan kemungkinan krisis mata uang terjadi.

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ABSTRACT

Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) 1997-98 and Global Financial Crisis (GFC) 2008 had driven economic and currency turbulence of ASEAN-5 countries. This phenomenon increases vulnerabilities of macroeconomic fundamentals and triggers the researcher to build an Early Warning Indicator (EWI) as a tool to mitigate the occurrence of a crisis. This research will compare 9 macroeconomic indicators behavior from real domestic, external, and monetary and financial vulnerabilities sector in ASEAN-5 countries that increase the possibility of currency crisis using the ERPD matrix and binary logit regression during the AFC and GFC period. The results show the external sector variables are significant in increasing the probability of currency crisis in ASEAN-5 countries during the AFC and GFC period. Import to reserves ratio is the most significant indicator and has a positive impact on the probability of crisis occurrence. The greater import to reserves increasing the exchange rate pressure and increase the probability of currency crisis to occur"

"[ABSTRAK

Krisis rupiah di tahun 1997-1999 adalah gejolak besar bagi ekonomi Indonesia dimana pertumbuhan ekonomi anjlok, sistem perbankan lumpuh, diikuti dengan konsekuensi sosial dan politik yang pahit. Diyakini jika otoritas moneter daan pembuat kebijakan lainnya dapat mengantisipasi krisis tersebut, segala konsekuensi yang tidak diinginkan tersebut dapat dikurangi dan mungkin dihindari.

Sistem pendeteksian dini untuk krisis rupiah diharapkan dapat memberi waktu para pembuat kebijakan untuk mengantisipasi datangnya krisis. Namun salah satu faktor sukses yang kritikal dalam pembentukan sistem tersebut adalah seleksi indikator.

Penelitian ini menerapkan Indication & Warning Intelligence (I&W)untuk sistem pendeteksian dini krisis rupiah dengan produk akhir berupa set indikator yang dianggap efektif memprediksi krisis rupiah. Dengan I&W diseleksi lima indikator, yang selanjutnya diuji keefektifannya dengan metode regresi logit, yang menyatakan bahwa terdapat tiga indikator yang dapat memprediksi krisis rupiah secara signifikan yang adalah: 1) Real Effective Exchange Rate, 2) Deposit Money Bank?s Foreign Asset Growth, dan 3) Inflasi.

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ABSTRACT

Currency crisis in Indonesia that took place in 1997-1999 was a major shock to the economy which plunge the growth, collapse the banking system with its bitter social and political consequences. It is acknowledged that if the monetary authority could anticipate such shock, the result would not be as devastating, it could be far lessen, and hopefully avoided.

Early warning system for currency crisis is crucial for policy makers to anticipate the coming crisis with enough preparation. One of the most important factor in framing that system is indicators selection.

This research apply Indication & Warning Intelligence (I&W) to early warning system of rupiah crisis with indicator set as its end product. With I&W five indicators are selected, which underwent further significance test with logistic regression method. This method results in three indicators being the most effective in predicting rupiah crisis, namely: 1) Real Effective Exchange Rate, 2) Deposit Money Bank?s Foreign Asset Growth, and 3) Inflation.;Currency crisis in Indonesia that took place in 1997-1999 was a major shock to the economy which plunge the growth, collapse the banking system with its bitter social and political consequences. It is acknowledged that if the monetary authority could anticipate such shock, the result would not be as devastating, it could be far lessen, and hopefully avoided.

Early warning system for currency crisis is crucial for policy makers to anticipate the coming crisis with enough preparation. One of the most important factor in framing that system is indicators selection.

This research apply Indication & Warning Intelligence (I&W) to early warning system of rupiah crisis with indicator set as its end product. With I&W five indicators are selected, which underwent further significance test with logistic regression method. This method results in three indicators being the most effective in predicting rupiah crisis, namely: 1) Real Effective Exchange Rate, 2) Deposit Money Bank’s Foreign Asset Growth, and 3) Inflation., Currency crisis in Indonesia that took place in 1997-1999 was a major shock to the economy which plunge the growth, collapse the banking system with its bitter social and political consequences. It is acknowledged that if the monetary authority could anticipate such shock, the result would not be as devastating, it could be far lessen, and hopefully avoided.

Early warning system for currency crisis is crucial for policy makers to anticipate the coming crisis with enough preparation. One of the most important factor in framing that system is indicators selection.

This research apply Indication & Warning Intelligence (I&W) to early warning system of rupiah crisis with indicator set as its end product. With I&W five indicators are selected, which underwent further significance test with logistic regression method. This method results in three indicators being the most effective in predicting rupiah crisis, namely: 1) Real Effective Exchange Rate, 2) Deposit Money Bank’s Foreign Asset Growth, and 3) Inflation.]"

"Sebagai salah satu ibukota terpadat di dunia, Jakarta mengalami kenaikan populasi yang cepat setiap tahunnya yang sejalan dengan pertumbuhan jumlah kendaraan bermotor. Masalah muncul ketika Jakarta dinobatkan sebagai salah satu kota yang tidak nyaman dalam hal mengemudi berdasarkan Indeks Kepuasaan Pengemudi yang dirilis oleh Waze (3,37 dari 10) dan sekitar 98 ribu kecelakaan terjadi sepanjang tahun 2017. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) bertujuan untuk meningkatkan performa pengemudi dan keselamatan berkendara. ADAS dapat memberikan peringatan dan melakukan intervensi yang dibutuhkan ketika menghadap situasi tertentu. Dua dari fitur yang diangkat pada penelitian ini adalah Forward Collision Warning (FCW) dan Lane Departure Warning (LDW). Oleh karena itu, tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengukur penerimaan pengemudi terhadap penggunaan sistem dan mengetahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi keinginan pengemudi untuk mengadopsi suatu teknologi. Melalui hasil penelitian didapatkan tiga variabel laten dengan dua belas variabel terukur yang menjadi faktor pengaruh terhadap keinginan pengemudi untuk menggunakan sistem. Rekomendasi untuk meningkatkan penerimaan pengemudi menjadi bagian akhir yang didapatkan berdasarkan evaluasi terhadap variabel yang tidak signifikan.

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As one of the most populous capitals in the world, Jakarta experiences rapid population growth every year which is followed by increasing number of vehicles rapidly too. The problem arise when Jakarta was named as one of the cities not comfortable to drive based on Driver Satisfaction Index 2016 released by Waze (3,37 out of 10) and around 98 thousands accidents occurred in 2017. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) aims to enhance driver performance and improve safety. ADAS can alert and intervene as needed when facing certain situations. Two systems were investigated in this study, Forward Collision Warning and Lane Departure Warning. Therefore, the purpose of this research was to measure driver acceptance using these systems and discovered the factors that affecting behavioral intention to adopt the systems. Through the results of the study found three latent variables with twelves measured variables that are influential factors on the driver`s intention to use the systems. Recommendations for increasing driver acceptance become the final part obtained based on evaluation of variables that are not significant."

"Kecelakaan di tempat kerja dapat memengaruhi efisiensi dan produktivitas kerja. Keselamatan dan Kesehatan Kerja (K3) merupakan upaya untuk menciptakan tempat kerja yang aman, sehat dan bebas dari pencemaran lingkungan, sehingga dapat melindungi dan menghindarkan pekerja dari kecelakaan kerja yang pada akhirnya dapat meningkatkan efisiensi dan produktivitas kerjanya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi warning sign sebagai upaya penerapan K3, menganalisis hambatan dan pengendalian terhadap bahaya yang berpotensi terjadi di KFTD Tangerang. Pengamatan dan pengumpulan data dengan observasi maupun wawancara kepada petugas gudang dan petugas kantor, lalu dilakukan analisis data dengan metode HIRARC. Warning sign K3 di lokasi KFTD Tangerang belum tersedia sama sekali. Hal ini dikarenakan belum adanya sarana dan prasarana dalam pengadaan rambu, kurangnya pemantauan terhadap kebutuhan rambu peringatan, tidak adanya penanggung jawab atas rambu-rambu sehingga personil merasa bukan tanggung jawabnya. Sedangkan potensi bahaya yang dapat terjadi akibat rambu K3 yang terbatas yaitu kecelakaan saat terdapat tumpukan kartonan pada lorong, kecelakaan saat pengangkutan barang dengan handlift, serta kelalaian petugas saat AC Ceiling bocor. Potensi bahaya tersebut dapat diatasi dengan cara sosialisasi penerapan K3, penyediaan sarana K3 yang belum tersedia, pembentukan divisi khusus yang bertanggung jawab dalam pengawasan penerapan K3 di lingkungan kerja.

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Accidents at work can affect work efficiency and productivity. Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) is an effort to create a workplace that is safe, healthy and exempt from environmental contamination, so as to protect and prevent workers from work accidents which in turn can increase efficiency and productivity. This study aims to identify warning signs as an effort to implement OHS, analyze obstacle and control hazards at KFTD Tangerang. Data collected by observation and interviews with warehouse staff and office staff, then data analysis was carried out using HIRARC method. The OHS warning sign at the KFTD Tangerang was not available at all. This is due to the absence of facilities and infrastructure in procuring signs, lack of monitoring the needs for warning signs, lack of a person in charge so staff do not feel it is their responsibilities. While the potential hazards that can occur due to limited OHS signs are accidents when there are piles of cartons in the hallway, accidents when transporting goods by handlift, and negligence by staff when the AC Ceiling leaks. These potential hazards can be overcome by socializing the application of OHS, providing OHS facilities that are not yet available, establishing a special division that is responsible for supervising the application of OHS in the work environment."

"The 1997-1999 currency crises series was a major shock to Indonesian economy. The crises had damaged Indonesian economy, since economic growth declined sharply and Indonesian banking system was in collapse. Should the monetary authority and business practitioners anticipated the currency crises, the social loss caused by it could be reduced. Learning from past mistakes, an early warning system to predict the possibility of currency crises occurrence in the near future is needed.This study applies the leading indicator approach to construct early warning system of currency crisis for Indonesia, both by using individual and composite leading indicators. A currency crises in this study is defined as any observation of exchange market pressure {EMI') over EMPs mean plus one time of EMPs standard deviation. Meanwhile, the threshold level for indicator's signal issuance is set to leave 20% best observations. Each indicator's performance is measured by using three criteria: (I) percentage of correctly called crises; (2) adjusted noise to signal ratio; and (3) probability of crisis following a signal.Results from this study show that there are five best individual indicators that can fulfil all of the criteria: (1) Rupiah REER misalignment over its trend value; (2) Deposit Money Banks' foreign assets growth; (3) financial account surplus; (4) base money growth; and (5) financial account surplus to GDP ratio. From the best individual indicators, 17 best composite indicators can be constructed. The first best composite indicator is the "VW', which is a direct combination of "Rupiah REER misalignment over its trend" and "Deposit Money Banks' foreign assets growth"."