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"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat pengaruh aktivitas perdagangan berjangka terhadap volatilitas pasar spot komoditas kakao yang diukur menggunakan GARCH. Sesuai dengan Kumar (2009), sebelumnya volume dan open interest dibedakan menjadi komponen expected dan unexpected menggunakan ARIMA dan volatilitas spot, yang dimodelkan dengan GARCH (1,1), ditambahkan dengan expected/unexpected volume dan open interest perdagangan berjangka sebagai variabel eksogen. Granger Causality Test digunakan untuk memahami hubungan dinamis setiap variabel.Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa (1) conditional spot volatility dipengaruhi oleh volume/open interest baik komponen expected maupun unexpected; (2) hubungan dinamis yang terjadi adalah hubungan signifikan 1 (satu) arah antara lain : open interest (expected) menyebabkan spot volatility, open interest (unexpected) menyebabkan spot volatility, volume (expected) menyebabkan spot volatility.

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This study aimed to examine the effect of futures trading activity on cocoa spot market volatility measured using GARCH. According to Kumar (2009), first the trading volumes and open interest are divided into expected and unexpected components using ARIMA and then spot volatility equation, which is modeled as GARCH (1,1) process, is augmented with expected and unexpected futures trading volume and open interest as exogenous variabel. Granger Causality Test is used to understand the dynamic relationship between these variables.The results showed that (1) the conditional spot volatility is influenced by the volume / open interest with both expected and unexpected components; (2) the dynamic relationship that occurs is a significant in 1 (one) way include: open interest (expected) causes spot volatility, open interest (unexpected) causes the spot volatility, volume (expected) causes the spot volatility."

"Tesis ini membahas mengenai perlindungan nasabah dalam industri perdagangan berjangka, mengapa diperlukan perlindungan hukum bagi nasabah dalam perdagangan berjangka, peraturan-peraturan apa saja di bidang perdagangan berjangka yang dapat memberikan perlindungan hukum bagi nasabah pada perdagangan berjangka, dan efektifitas aturan-aturan di bidang perdagangan berjangka yang berlaku saat ini dalam memberikan perlindungan bagi nasabah. Penelitian dalam tesis ini adalah penelitian hukum normatif dengan menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif dalam analisis data.Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah karena perdagangan berjangka memiliki sifat high risk high return dimana nasabah berpeluang untuk mendapat keuntungan di satu sisi dan kerugian di sisi lain maka nasabah di bidang perdagangan berjangka perlu mendapatkan perlindungan, pemerintah telah membuat seperangkat peraturan untuk memberikan perlindungan kepada nasabah, akan tetapi dalam prakteknya aturan-aturan tersebut belum dapat dikatakan berlaku secara efisien dan efektif.Penelitian ini menyarankan bahwa perlu dilakukan upaya preventif untuk meminimalisir kemungkinan pelanggaran, evaluasi peraturan perundang-undangan di bidang perdagangan berjangka, sosialisasi, dan koordinasi diantara para stakeholder perdagangan berjangka agar hak-hak nasabah terlindungi.

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The focus of this study is the customer protection in futures and commodity trading, why customer protection is needed in futures and commodity trading, the rules and regulations related customer protection in futures and commodity trading, and effectiveness of rules and regulations related customer protection in futures and commodity trading. This research is a normative legal research and use qualitative approach in analyzing data.

The results of the research are that the futures and commodity trading is a high risk high return investment where the customer has the possibility to gain profit in one side but also has the possibility to get loss in large amount in the other side, the government has make rules and regulations to protect the customer but in practice the rules and regulations have not been run efficiently and effectively.

The researcher suggests that the preventive measures are needed to minimize the violation of the futures trading rules and regulations, the rules and regulations in futures trading should be evaluated regularly, the stakeholders in futures trading should coordinate with each other and socialize the rules and regulations in futures trading to customer."