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"Berbagai mekanisme perlindungan global safeguards dalam WTO Agreement dan Free Trade Agreement (FTA) seperti pada Bilateral Trade Agreements (BTA) dan Regional Trade Agreements (RTA) didasarkan pada alasan-alasan yang berbeda, fungsi yang berbeda, juga memiliki mekanisme safeguards yang berbeda. Fungsi utama global safeguards sebagai instrumen sementara untuk melindungi industri dalam negeri dari kerugian serius dan atau ancaman kerugian serius disebabkan adanya lonjakan impor, sebagai akibat disepakatinya tingkat tarif liberalisasi perdagangan diantara Negara-negara Anggota WTO. Sehingga Negara-negara anggota WTO dapat menikmati fleksibilitas kebijakan tingkat tarif tertentu atas liberalisasi perdagangan. Pembebasan penerapan global safeguards antar pihak FTA tidak konsisten dengan WTO Agreement khususnya tidak sejalan dengan prinsip non-diskriminasi (Most-Favoured-Nation). Namun, pada prakteknya dibenarkan asalkan kondisi paralelisme terpenuhi. Pihak FTA juga dapat mengambil perlindungan bilateral safeguards dan regional safeguards terhadap pihak lain asalkan tingkat pembatasan tarif tidak membahayakan persyaratan yang terkait dengan menghilangkan hambatan sehubungan dengan substansial semua perdagangan. Mekanisme Bilateral safeguards dan regional safeguards di bawah FTA dirancang menyesuaikan laju liberalisasi lebih lanjut setelah pihak FTA melaksanakan rencana penghapusan tarif sebagaimana kesepakatan dalam BTA dan RTA. Karena fungsi mendasar ini, persyaratan substansial semua perdagangan berdasarkan ketentuan FTA dalam Pasal XXIV GATT 1994 merupakan satu-satunya ketentuan yang relevan terkait ketentuan bilateral safeguards dan regional safeguards. Diterapkan di FTA selama periode penghapusan tarif dan dalam batas tingkat tarif MFN, yang konsisten dengan aturan WTO. Pemberlakuan ketentuan global safeguards, bilateral safeguards, dan regional safeguards memiliki mekanisme persyaratan substantif dan prosedural dalam penerapannya. Mengingat kemungkinan banyak bentuk penerapan safeguards yang tumpang tindih, negosiator FTA dapat mengambil solusi legislatif yang efektif yang memasukkan ketentuan FTA yang secara eksplisit melarang bentuk-bentuk tertentu jika terjadi penerapan tumpang tindih yang tidak diinginkan. Tesis ini mengungkapkan bagaimana penerapan global safeguards dibandingkan dengan bilateral safeguards dan regional safeguards tersebut, juga akan memberikan preskripsi tentang hal-hal yang harus dilakukan dalam menerapkan ketentuan bilateral safeguards dan regional safeguards antar negara-negara anggota BTA dan RTA yang juga merupakan Negara-negara anggota WTO yang menerapkan ketentuan global safeguards.

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Various mechanisms of global safeguards in the WTO Agreements and the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) such as the Bilateral Trade Agreements (BTA) and Regional Trade Agreements (RTA) is based on different reasons, different functions, also has a different mechanism of safeguards. The main function of global safeguards as a temporary instrument to protect domestic industry from serious injury or threat of serious injury caused by a surge in imports, as a result of the agreement on the level of tariff liberalization of trade between Member States of the WTO. So WTO member countries enjoy a certain level of policy flexibility tariff on trade liberalization. The mutual exemption of the global safeguards application among FTA parties is not inconsistent with the WTO Agreement in particular are not in line with the principle of non-discrimination (Most-Favored-Nation), provided that the parallelism condition is met. An FTA party may also take safeguards against another party as long as the restriction level from those safeguards does not harm the requirement associated with eliminating barriers with respect to substantially all trade. Bilateral and regional safeguards under the FTA are designed to be mechanism for adjusting the pace of further liberalization once FTA parties implement the tariff elimination plan as an agreement in BTA and RTA. Because of this fundamental function, the substantially all trade requirement under FTA provisions in the Article XXIV of GATT 1994 represent was the only relevant provisions of the relevant provisions under which bilateral and regional safeguards measures are disciplined. Any bilateral safeguards, which are applied to sector subject to FTA tariff elimination during the tariff elimination period and within the limits of the MFN tariff rate, which is consistent with WTO Agreement. Enforcement of global safeguards provisions, bilateral safeguards, and regional safeguards have substantive and procedural requirements mechanism in its application. Given the many possibilities for the application of safeguards, which forms overlap, FTA negotiators can take effective legislative solutions that incorporate the provisions of the FTA, which explicitly prohibits certain forms in case of adoption of unwanted overlap.

This thesis reveals how the global application of safeguards in comparison with bilateral and regional safeguards such safeguards, will also provide prescriptions about things to do in implementing the provisions of bilateral and regional safeguards between countries BTA and RTA member who is also the Member States WTO provisions which apply global safeguards."

"Donald Trump was elected into US presidential office in November 2016 and his protective approach on international economics blatantly differs with actions taken by politicians before him. Those policies and sentiments are always expressed via his twitter account and received various responses from citizens and governments alike. This research aimed to find out if the US diplomatic hostility towards its partners on social media will have a direct impact on their bilateral trade flows because of diplomatic retaliation. Using monthly import and export data between the US and 10 major trading partners from June 2015 until March 2018, their respective Economic Policy Uncertainty EPU Index, and tweets analysed with VADER sentiment analysis, we estimate an ARDL model of Trump rsquo s twitter sentiments and its effect on trade. We found out that tweets and trade are not causally linked, yet in most cases they are cointegrated in the short and long run. Through ARDL, we can infer that tweets took around 4 months to take effect and they are only significant in several countries.

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Donald Trump terpilih menjadi Presiden Amerika Serikat di bulan November 2016 dan kebijakannya yang protektif sangat berbeda dengan politisi-politisi sebelumnya. Kebijakan dan opini Trump selalu diutarakan melalui akun Twitternya dan mendapat berbagai tanggapan baik dari masyarakat maupun negara lain. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mencari tahu apabila ketegangan diplomatis akibat perilakunya di media social akan memiliki efek langsung pada perdagangan bilateral sebagai konsekuensi dari balasan diplomatic. Dengan menggunakan data bulanan impor dan ekspor antara AS dan 10 partner dagang dari Juni 2015 sampai Maret 2018, data Indeks Ketidakpastian Kebijakan Ekonomi EPU dari negara-negara tersebut dan twitnya yang dianalisa dengan metode analisa sentiment VADER, kami mengestimasi model ARDL untuk nilai sentiment twit Trump dan efeknya pada perdagangan. Melalui ARDL, ditemukan bahwa twit membutuhkan sekitar 4 bulan untuk memengaruhi arus perdagangan dan bahwa twit merupakan variabel yang signifikan hanya untuk beberapa negara tertentu."

"ABSTRAKWTO berhasil untuk membentuk Committee on Regional Trade Agreement CRTA pada Februari 1996. Fungsi dari CRTA adalah untuk meninjau semua perjanjian perdagangan regional yang didaftarkan ke WTO dan mempertimbangkan implikasi dari perjanjian perdagangan regional terhadap sistem perdagangan multilateral dan antara perjanjian itu satu sama lain. Namun CRTA tidak memiliki kewenangan yang kuat. Komite ini hanya memiliki fungsi administratif dan studi kelayakan tanpa bisa memberi keputusan yang mengikat. Usulan untuk memperkuat fungsi dari CRTA coba di bawa dalam perundingan Putaran Doha tahun 2001 yang kemudian gagal untuk mencapai kesepakatan. Penelitian ini mengkaji secara mendalam mengenai peranan dari Committee on Regional Trade Agreement WTO dalam kaitannya dengan pengawasan RTA dan juga bagaimana sejauh ini kepatuhan anggota-anggota WTO dalam melaksanakan ketentuan yang telah ditetapkan mengenai persyaratan pembentukan RTA tersebut.

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ABSTRACTThe WTO succeeded in establishing a Committee on Regional Trade Agreement CRTA in February 1996. The function of CRTA is to review all regional trade agreements registered with the WTO and to consider the implications of regional trade agreements on the multilateral trading system and between agreements to each other. However CRTA has no strong authority. This committee only has administrative functions and feasibility studies without being able to make binding decisions. The proposal to strengthen the function of the CRTA was brought to the Doha Round of 2001 negotiations which then failed to reach agreement. This study examines in depth the role of the Committee on Regional Trade Agreement of the WTO in relation to RTA surveillance as well as how so far the compliance of WTO members in implementing the established provisions on the requirements for the establishment of the RTA."

"The stalling of the Doha Development Round trade negotiations has resulted in bilateral and regional free trade agreements (BRTAs) becoming an important alternative. These agreements have proliferated in recent years, and now all of the major trading countries are engaging in serious bilateral trade negotiations with multiple trading partners. This second edition provides updated and comprehensive analysis of the contents and trends of recent BRTAs. It is unique in that it situates these agreements in their economic, international law and international relations contexts. It also comprehensively reviews the recent agreements in relation to each substantive topic covered (e.g. intellectual property, investment, services and social policy) so as to provide an overview of the law being created in these areas."