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"ABSTRAKANRI-Indoflesia Company has been facing a problem in selling natural gas to domesticindustry due to the Indonesia monetary crisis. ANRI has discovered big gas in severalcontract areas in Indonesia under Pertamina concession. In addition, ANRI mission isbecoming leadership in gas producer in next years. Therefore, a management strategy hasto be formulated in order to achieve a sustainable competitive advantage and earningsabove average during the Asia economic turmoil condition. Many customers have bought gas in US dollar contracts to ANRI but currency fluctuationhas hurt the customers earning. Furthermore, low purchasing power of people hasdrastically decreased during crisis. Some firms therefore, such as PLN, have delayed inpayment to ANRI. ANRI has worldwide reputation in upstream and downstream business, especially inIndonesia that ANRI has only focussed in upstream business. Meanwhile, economic gasreserve has been discovered in Irian Jaya, Bali and Java. In addition the ANRI has beenfacing uncertainties gas market in both domestic and overseas during the crisis. ThereforeANRI-Indonesia is interested for research study. The research method of the thesis will use two types of research sources: 1. Primary data Data were collected by survey using a questionnaire form for human resource,SPACE matrix, Internal-External matrix and QSPM. 2. Secondary data Data were gathered using internal and external data. The data, consists of general environment, industry environment, competitiveenvironment and internal analysis, is formulated with applying SWOT, SPACE, GrandStrategy and Internal External Matrices. Finally, recommendation for the ANRI strategicmanagement during crisis is divided into three, short-term, medium-term and long term.Short-term strategic management is prioritized on Market Penetration, MarketDevelopment, Backward Integration, Retrenchment, 1-lorizontal Integration andSuspended gas development. Medium-term strategic management is focused on vertical chain alliances in downstreambusiness, Divestiture, Liquidation and Forward Integration. Long-term strategic management is established on searching new fields.A research weakness of the thesis is not provided equivalence number of energy demandin domestic and overseas. Therefore gas demand in market will not exactly be knownhow much of domestic and overseas need. Future studies are suggested to research how much gas demand in domestic and overseasmarket. Then gas development can be accurately predicted in future, in addition gas pricecan be negotiated in right profit for sustainable of the business."

"Dalam industri minyak analisis real option telah lama digunakan untuk menganalisis nilai dari ladang minyak. Investasi yang signifikan sangat dibutuhkan untuk operasi pengeboran, dan biasanya membutuhkan waktu bertahun-tahun sebelum mulai berproduksi minyak. Mendapatkan kesempatan untuk mengelola ladang minyak memberikan perusahaan suatu hak, bukan kewajiban, untuk mengebor minyak, sehingga dengan demikian munculah suatu opsi yang disebut call option. Tapi seperti opsi lainnya, hak untuk mengebor memiliki nilai dan nilai tersebut perlu ditentukan. Real option adalah metode umum yang digunakan untuk mendapatkan penilaian dalam industri minyak. Harga minyak yang mudah berubah sangat bergantung pada permintaan pasar serta keseimbangan permintaan-pasokan di pasar minyak. Namun dewasa ini, isu-isu politik dan teknologi juga mempengaruhi harga minyak. Oleh karena itu, perusahaan yang memperoleh sewa untuk ladang minyak mungkin ingin menunggu sampai ketidakpastian pada harga minyak menjadi jelas untuk membuat keputusan untuk berinvestasi. Tesis ini menunjukkan bagaimana analisis real option dapat digunakan untuk melengkapi analisis keputusan untuk memaksimalkan pengembalian dari proyek dan meminimalkan kerugian yang mungkin. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa analisis real option memberikan nilai tambah terhadap valuasi sebuah proyek.

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In the oil industry, real option analysis has long been used to value oil field. Sigificant investments are required for the drilling operations, and it usually takes years before the production of oil begins. getting a lease for an oil field provides a company the right, but not an obligation to drill, and then creating call option. But just like any other option, the right to drill has value and needs to be determined. Real option analysis is a common tool for valuation oil Project.

Oil prices are volatile and depend on market demand as well as the demand-supply equilibrium in the oil market. But now, political issues and technology also impact oil price. Therefore, a company that acquires the lease for an oil field may want to wait until the uncertainty on the oil prices clear befor making the decision to accept the investment.

This thesis shows how real options analysis can be used to complement decision analysis in order to maximize the returns of the project and minimize possible losses. The result show that the real options approach adds significant value to project valuations."

"Tesis ini merupakan aplikasi metode Dynamic Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) dan Real Options (RO) dalam menghitung keekonomian investasi proyek migas. Pendekatan ini memungkinkan para pengambil keputusan melihat proyek secara dinamis, yang bergerak sesuai probabilitas ketidakpastian pada setiap tahap sehingga pendekatan yang digunakan haruslah bersifat dinamis juga. Harga minyak merupakan satu-satunya variabel yang diasumsikan menimbulkan risiko terhadap ketidakpastian cash flow proyek dimasa depan. Dengan menggunakan model forward price minyak yang diintegrasikan dengan model perhitungan keekonomian proyek, maka ketidakpastian terhadap risiko arus kas yang terjadi setiap tahunnya dapat dilihat. Metode DCF dan RO memberikan faktor diskonto yang berbeda sehingga menghasilkan suatu model keekonomian proyek dengan nilai yang berbeda.

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This thesis is the application of Dynamic Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Real Options (RO) methods in calculating the economics of oil and gas project investment. This approach allows the decision makers to see the project is moving dynamically according to the probability of uncertainty at every stage, so that the approach used must be dynamic as well. Oil price is the only variables that assumed to pose a risk to the uncertainty of future project cash flow. By using the oil price forward model which is integrated with the calculation model of economics of project, thus the impact of future uncertainty of cash flows that occur each year can be seen. DCF and RO methods give different discount factors so as to produce an economic model projects with different values."

"Industri minyak bumi dan gas dihadapkan pada risiko besar (high risk) terkait dengan kecelakaan yang berhubungan dengan kebakaran dan ledakan pada fasilitas produksi, salah satunya pada tangki timbunnya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji pre-fire planning dengan menilai risiko kebakaran yang mungkin terjadi pada tangki timbun T-15 PT Pertamina Plumpang, Jakarta Utara menggunakan simulasi PyroSim Fire Modelling. Teknik pengolahan data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis deskriptif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan tangki berisiko mengalami kebakaran dengan skenario unobstructed full liquid surface fire dengan bentuk pool fire. Laju pelepasan kalor yang dihasilkan sebesar 4.009.592,47 kW dengan durasi kebakaran dari volume terbakar 100% 48,89 jam dan ketinggian api 53,12 m. Suhu yang diterima Tangki terdekat berjarak 30,5 meter dari Tangki terbakar adalah 1075 0C. Hasil penelitian merekomendasikan pentingnya dilakukan perencanaan dalam menghadapi kemungkinan kebakaran yang terjadi karena bisa menimbulkan efek domino bagi tangki sekitar dan memastikan kebutuhan air dan foam tercukupi.

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Oil and gas industry faced high risk related to fires accident and explosions in production facilities, one of which is on the storage tank. This study aims to assess the pre-fire planning by assessing the risk of fires that may occur on the storage tank in T-15, PT Pertamina Plumpang, North Jakarta by using simulation PyroSim Fire Modelling. Data processing techniques used in this study is descriptive analytical.

The results showed storage tank has high risk fire based on scenarios full unobstructed surface liquid pool fire. Heat Release Rate is 4.009.592,47 kW, burning duration of 100% tank volume is 48,89 hours with flame height 53,12 m. Temperature received by the closest tank at 10750C. Results of research conducted recommend the importance of planning for a potential fires because it can cause a domino effect around the tank and ensure the water and foam needs fulfilled."

"Perizinan berusaha berbasis risiko merupakan upaya pemerintah untuk memperbaiki sistem perizinan di Indonesia dan memangkas birokrasi sehingga dapat meningkatkan investasi. Perizinan berusaha berbasis risiko adalah suatu konsep perizinan dimana analisis risiko dijadikan dasar dalam menentukan jenis perizinan berusaha dan intensitas pengawasan suatu kegiatan usaha. Prinsipnya adalah semakin tinggi risiko suatu kegiatan usaha, semakin banyak perizinan berusaha yang harus dipenuhi kegiatan usaha tersebut. Sementara itu, untuk kegiatan usaha dengan risiko rendah tidak diharuskan untuk memperoleh izin. Proses pengurusan perizinan masih tetap dilakukan melalui sistem Online Single Submission yang dikelola oleh Kementerian Investasi/Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal. Penelitian ini menggunakan bentuk yuridis-normatif dengan tipologi penelitian deskriptif yang didukung oleh studi bahan pustaka. Penulis juga akan menganalisis implementasi perizinan berusaha berbasis risiko pada salah satu sektor terpenting di Indonesia yakni minyak dan gas bumi. Berdasarkan penelitian ini, diketahui bahwa tingkat risiko kegiatan usaha dijadikan dasar dalam menentukan jenis perizinan berusaha. Dengan adanya pemangkasan jumlah perizinan melalui pengelompokkan risiko kegiatan usaha, diharapkan dapat meningkatkan kemudahan berusaha di Indonesia. Kemudian diketahui bahwa sebagian besar kegiatan usaha minyak dan gas bumi memiliki risiko tinggi sehingga pelaku usaha masih diharuskan memperoleh izin untuk menjalankan kegiatan usahanya. Terkait dengan hal ini, saran yang dapat disampaikan yakni sebaiknya pemerintah senantiasa memperbaiki sistem Online Single Submission agar proses pengajuan izin dapat berjalan lancar mengingat sistem tersebut sampai saat ini masih dalam proses penyempurnaan. Selain itu, pemerintah diharapkan rutin melakukan evaluasi terkait kebijakan investasi pada sektor minyak dan gas bumi dan menyediakan berbagai insentif sebagai upaya untuk meningkatkan investasi di sektor ini.

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Risk-based licensing is the government's effort to improve the licensing system in Indonesia and cut bureaucracy in order to increase investment. Risk-based licensing is a licensing concept where risk analysis is used as the basis for determining the type of business license and the intensity of supervision of a business activity. The principle is that the higher the risk of a business activity, the more business licenses that business activity must fulfill. Meanwhile, business activities with low risk are not required to obtain a permit. The licensing process is still being carried out through the Online Single Submission system which is managed by the Ministry of Investment/Indonesian Investment Coordinating Board. This study uses a juridical-normative form with a typology of descriptive research supported by the literature review. The author will also analyze the implementation of risk-based licensing in one of the most important sectors in Indonesia, namely oil and gas. Based on this research, it is known that the level of business activity risk is used as the basis for determining the type of business license. With the reduction in the number of permits through risk grouping of business activities, it is expected to increase the ease of doing business in Indonesia. Then it was discovered that most of the oil and gas business activities have high risks so that business actors are still required to obtain permits to carry out their business activities. In this regard, the suggestion is that the government should always improve the Online Single Submission system so that the permit application process can run smoothly considering that the system is still in the process of being perfected. In addition, the government is expected to routinely evaluate investment policies in the oil and gas sector and provide various incentives as an effort to increase investment in this sector."