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" Since Indonesia does not have a good vita! statistics registrationsystem, fertility rates for the country as a whole and any administrativesubdivisions must be estimated indirectly. This paper summarizes estimatesresulting from the application of four brdu-ect estimation techniques to sevenIndonesian data sets. The own-children method, the last live birth method, thePalmore method and the Rele method were applied to all seven data sets:Estimates were prepared for the whole country and its three major regions for1971 through 1991. Estimates for individual provinces were also calculated forsome dates. In addition, estimates from other methods, available for somedates and subnational areas, are presented The data sets used are the 1971Census, the 1976 Intercensal Survey, the 1980 Census, the 1985 Intercensalway; the 1987 National Indonesia Contraceptive Prevalence Survey; the I 990Census, and the 1991 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey. The resultsshow that fertility in Indonesia fell by at least thirty-nine percent between 1971and 1991, but the various methods do not agree on the levels of fertility,particularly the earliest dates .By 1991, however; three estimates of the totalfertility rate for Indonesia as a whole are in as a whole are in a small range:from a low estimate of 3.22 to a high of 3.35. Fertility declined rapidly in allof the major regions of the country, although fertility started at higher levelsoutside of Java and Bali and hence remains at higher levels today despiterapid declines."

"ABSTRAKTingkat fertilitas di Indonesia telah gagal mengalami penurunan dalam tiga periode Survei Demografi dan Kesehatan Indonesia (SDKI) berturut-turut, yakni 2002, 2007, dan 2012. Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi terjadinya kemandekan penurunan tingkat fertilitas di Indonesia pada tahun 2002-2012 dengan menggunakan metode OLS dan data panel. Hasil estimasi regresi menunjukkan bahwa kemandekan penurunan fertilitas dipengaruhi oleh lambatnya penurunan tingkat angka kematian bayi, lambatnya penurunan tingkat unmet need kontrasepsi, dan lambatnya penurunan tingkat kelahiran di usia remaja. Namun, lambatnya penurunan tingkat kelahiran di usia remaja akan berpengaruh terhadap tingkat perubahan fertilitas apabila terjadi bersamaan dengan lambatnya penurunan angka kematian bayi dan tingkat unmet need kontrasepsi. Temuan pada analisis tingkat provinsi menujukkan bahwa Provinsi Papua dan Papua Barat merupakan provinsi dengan laju kenaikan tingkat fertilitas tertinggi yang disertai dengan tingginya laju tiga variabel yang berkontribusi pada terjadinya kemandekan penurunan fertilitas.

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ABSTRACTFertility decline in Indonesia had been stalled for three consecutive Demographic Health Surveys (2002,2007, and 2012). This study is aimed to probe the determinants of stalling fertility decline in Indonesia occurring in 2002-2012 by employing panel data analysis using ordinary least square regression. It is discovered that stalling fertility decline in Indonesia is attributed to sluggish decline in infant mortality rate, unmet need of contraception, and adolescent fertility. However, sluggish adolescent fertility decline will significantly affect the occurrence of stalling fertility decline only if either sluggish mortality decline or sluggish unmet need decline exists. In regional level, Papua and West Papua are regions possessing relatively large increase in fertility rate and the three factors affecting the occurrence of stalling fertility decline"

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Penurunan fertilitas adalah suatu fenomena demografis yang terjadi secara global, termasuk di Indonesia. Fenomena ini dapat berdampak positif atau negatif terhadap suatu negara, tergantung pada tingkat fertilitas negara tersebut. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat perbedaan penurunan tingkat fertilitas pada tingkat kabupaten/kota di Indonesia dan mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang secara umum memengaruhi penurunan tersebut. Regresi logistik biner pada 497 kabupaten/kota di Indonesia dengan menganalisis selisih nilai variabel-variabel pada 2010 dan 2020 digunakan untuk menganalisis determinan-determinan penurunan tingkat fertilitas tersebut. Hasil regresi menunjukkan bahwa selisih tingkat prevalensi keluarga berencana pada 2010 dan 2020 sebagai faktor langsung terhadap fertilitas memiliki hubungan yang positif dan signifikan terhadap probabilitas penurunan fertilitas. Temuan ini sesuai dengan teori Bongaarts (1978) yang menunjukkan peranan variabel kontrasepsi terhadap tingkat fertilitas.

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Fertility decline is a demographic phenomenon that is happening globally, including in Indonesia. This phenomenon might have positive or negative impacts towards a country, depending on the country’s fertility rate. This study aims to look at the differences in fertility decline on district level in Indonesia and to identify factors that affect such decline. Binary logistic regressions on 497 districts and cities in Indonesia by analyzing the change scores of the variables in 2010 and 2020 are used to analyze the determinants of the fertility decline. The results show that the difference in contraceptive prevalence rate in 2010 and 2020 as a direct determinants of fertility has a postive and significant effect towards the probability of a decline in fertility. This finding confirms the theory of Bongaarts (1978) that shows the role of contraception in reducing fertility rates.

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