"[
ABSTRAKBerdasarkan keyakinan bahwa siklus bisnis dapat mempengaruhi kinerja
perekonomian secara keseluruhan, penulis menganggap bahwa manajemen siklus
bisnis adalah sesuatu yang penting untuk dilakukan. Perekonomian yang stabil,
dalam persepektif sosial, kenyataannya lebih dipilih dibandingkan dengan
perekonomian dengan volatilitas yang tinggi.
Manajemen siklus bisnis yang efektif harus didasarkan pada model
representatif yang baik. Sayangnya, pemodelan siklus bisnis sampai saat ini
belumlah tuntas. Evaluasi terhadap model RBC, model yang dianggap paling baik
kinerjanya dalam menjelaskan siklus bisnis sampai saat ini, menunjukkan bahwa
model tersebut masih banyak mengandung kekurangan substansial yang
fundamental. Oleh karenanya, sebagai bagian dari penelitian secara keseluruhan,
penulis mengajukan sebuah model yang dinamakan Model Siklus Bisnis Berbasis
Aliran?Flow-based Business Cycle (FBC)?yang diharapkan mampu menutupi
kekurangan-kekurangan yang ada pada RBC.
Tidak seperti penelitian berbasis RBC lainnya, penulis menjauh dari cara
konvensional dalam kalibrasi model: penyesuaian spesifikasi fungsi utilitas
dan/atau penyesuaian parameter-parameter sistem, baik jenis maupun jumlahnya.
Fokus diarahkan pada mekanisme optimalisasi yang ada dalam model RBC dan
menunjukkan bahwa mekanisme yang digunakan terlalu utopia dan tidak masuk
akal. Dengan menganalisis sistem secara utuh, penulis menawarkan sebuah
mekanisme optimalisasi utilisasi yang cukup sederhana yang ketika digabungkan
dengan mekanisme penyesuaian variabel ekonomi secara gradual mampu
menghasilkan sebuah model yang tidak hanya mampu menjelaskan fakta-fakta
siklus bisnis Amerika Serikat dengan lebih akurat, namun mampu memberikan
cara pandang lain yang berguna bagi pemahaman siklus bisnis.
Implikasi-implikasi FBC kemudian akan dimanfaatkan untuk menetapkan
sejumlah kebijakan umum berkaitan dengan keinginan agar sebuah perekonomian
bisa berada dalam jalur pertumbuhan yang tinggi dan stabil. Alih-alih mendetil,
kebijakan-kebijakan tersebut masih bersifat umum dan berada dalam tataran
filosofis. Diharapkan, penelitian-penelitian selanjutnya akan mampu
memanfaatkan model tersebut untuk menyusun sebuah kebijakan yang baik dan
lebih operasional.
ABSTRACTBased on a belief that business cycle has substantial effect to the
performance of the economy as a whole, I argue that the management of the
business cycle is something important to do. Stable economy, in the social
perspective and legal context, has been proven to be desireable compare to
volatile and unstable one.
It is logical to expect that an effective management of the business cycle
should be based on a good, reliable, and accurate model. Unfortunately, business
cycle as a phenomenon has not been succesfully modeled to date. RBC models,
considered to be the best model available in the realm, shows many substantial
and fundamental shortcomings. Therefore, to fulfil the ultimate objective to
outline general policy to business cycle, I was forced to propose an alternative
model?Flow-based Business Cycle (FBC), expected to perform better than RBC
in explaining business cycle stylized facts and aspects beyond, but essential to,
overall cycle undestanding.
Unlike other RBC-based research, I kept myself away from conventional
approach in model calibration, where attention is usually put in utility function
specification and/or adjustment of system parameters, qualitatively and
quantitatively. Focus is redirected to evaluate inherent optimizing mechanisms in
RBC models and show that this mechanism is not only too complex but also
questionable. Analyzing the system as a whole, I then offer a much simpler
utilization optimization mechanism that, when combined with the adjustment
mechanism of gradual economic variables, able to produce a model that is not
only able to explain the business cycle model stylized facts more accurately, but
also provide another useful and important insights.
FBC?s behaviors and implications will then be used to establish a number
of general policies useful to steer economy into a path of high and stable
economic growth. It is important to stress, though, the policies are general and
philosophical, rather than detailed and operational guideline. Hopefully, this
initial work can trigger future studies, which able to utilize this proposed models
in a more fruitful and practice ways.;Based on a belief that business cycle has substantial effect to the
performance of the economy as a whole, I argue that the management of the
business cycle is something important to do. Stable economy, in the social
perspective and legal context, has been proven to be desireable compare to
volatile and unstable one.
It is logical to expect that an effective management of the business cycle
should be based on a good, reliable, and accurate model. Unfortunately, business
cycle as a phenomenon has not been succesfully modeled to date. RBC models,
considered to be the best model available in the realm, shows many substantial
and fundamental shortcomings. Therefore, to fulfil the ultimate objective to
outline general policy to business cycle, I was forced to propose an alternative
model—Flow-based Business Cycle (FBC), expected to perform better than RBC
in explaining business cycle stylized facts and aspects beyond, but essential to,
overall cycle undestanding.
Unlike other RBC-based research, I kept myself away from conventional
approach in model calibration, where attention is usually put in utility function
specification and/or adjustment of system parameters, qualitatively and
quantitatively. Focus is redirected to evaluate inherent optimizing mechanisms in
RBC models and show that this mechanism is not only too complex but also
questionable. Analyzing the system as a whole, I then offer a much simpler
utilization optimization mechanism that, when combined with the adjustment
mechanism of gradual economic variables, able to produce a model that is not
only able to explain the business cycle model stylized facts more accurately, but
also provide another useful and important insights.
FBC’s behaviors and implications will then be used to establish a number
of general policies useful to steer economy into a path of high and stable
economic growth. It is important to stress, though, the policies are general and
philosophical, rather than detailed and operational guideline. Hopefully, this
initial work can trigger future studies, which able to utilize this proposed models
in a more fruitful and practice ways., Based on a belief that business cycle has substantial effect to the
performance of the economy as a whole, I argue that the management of the
business cycle is something important to do. Stable economy, in the social
perspective and legal context, has been proven to be desireable compare to
volatile and unstable one.
It is logical to expect that an effective management of the business cycle
should be based on a good, reliable, and accurate model. Unfortunately, business
cycle as a phenomenon has not been succesfully modeled to date. RBC models,
considered to be the best model available in the realm, shows many substantial
and fundamental shortcomings. Therefore, to fulfil the ultimate objective to
outline general policy to business cycle, I was forced to propose an alternative
model—Flow-based Business Cycle (FBC), expected to perform better than RBC
in explaining business cycle stylized facts and aspects beyond, but essential to,
overall cycle undestanding.
Unlike other RBC-based research, I kept myself away from conventional
approach in model calibration, where attention is usually put in utility function
specification and/or adjustment of system parameters, qualitatively and
quantitatively. Focus is redirected to evaluate inherent optimizing mechanisms in
RBC models and show that this mechanism is not only too complex but also
questionable. Analyzing the system as a whole, I then offer a much simpler
utilization optimization mechanism that, when combined with the adjustment
mechanism of gradual economic variables, able to produce a model that is not
only able to explain the business cycle model stylized facts more accurately, but
also provide another useful and important insights.
FBC’s behaviors and implications will then be used to establish a number
of general policies useful to steer economy into a path of high and stable
economic growth. It is important to stress, though, the policies are general and
philosophical, rather than detailed and operational guideline. Hopefully, this
initial work can trigger future studies, which able to utilize this proposed models
in a more fruitful and practice ways.]"
Depok: Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Indonesia, 2014
