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"DAS Cileungsi Hulu adalah salah satu daerah aliran sungai yang terletak di Provinsi Jawa Barat dengan kondisi perkembangan wilayah yang sangat dinamis. DAS Cileungsi Hulu memiliki karakteristik fisik geologi dan topografi yang beragam dan terjadi perubahan penggunaan tanah yang signifikan. Pengaruh karakteristik fisik DAS dan hubungannya dengan perubahan penggunaan tanah dapat diketahui melalui penggunaan pemodelan hidrologi yang tepat. Penelitian ini menggunakan model SWAT yang dapat memberikan fokus pada simulasi jangka panjang berbasis karakteristik wilayah untuk mengetahui kondisi kualitas air sungai dan prediksi perubahannya sehubungan dengan perubahan penggunaan tanah dengan menggunakan parameter nitrat (NO3). Prediksi dilakukan berdasarkan proyeksi perubahan penggunaan tanah secara temporal tahun 1989-2014. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ada hubungan antara perubahan kualitas air dengan perubahan penggunaan tanah. Hasil uji kalibrasi dan akurasi model dengan perhitungan Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) dan Normalized Objective Function (NOF) berada pada rentang 0-1 yang artinya model dikatakan baik dan dapat digunakan. Skenario model yang digunakan untuk prediksi adalah peningkatan luas penggunaan tanah permukiman dan industri serta penurunan luas penggunaan tanah pertanian lahan kering, menghasilkan peningkatan konsentrasi nitrat pada air sungai setiap tahunnya.

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Cileungsi Hulu Watershed is one of the watershed are located in the province of West Java with the conditions of a very dynamic urban development. Cileungsi Hulu watershed has a physical characteristics of varied geological and topographical with land use changes significantly. The influence of the physical characteristics of the watershed and its relationship with land use changes can be detected through the use of proper hydrologic modeling. This study uses SWAT model that can provide a focus on long-term simulations based on the characteristics of the area to determine the condition of the river water quality and forecast changes in connection with land use changes using the parameters nitrate(NO3). Predictions made based on the projected land use changes temporally years 1989-2014. The results showed that there is a relationship between changes in water quality with land use changes. The results of calibration and accuracy of the calculation model with RMSE and NOF is in the range of 0-1 which means the model is quite good and can be used. Scenario model used for the prediction is increase residential and industrial land use as well as a decrease agricultural land area, resulting in increased concentrations of nitrate in river water annual"

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