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"Optimalisasi portofolio melalui Alokasi Aset Strategis penting dilakukan oleh Badan Pengelola Keuangan Haji (BPKH) untuk meningkatkan nilai manfaat dari investasi dana haji. Nilai manfaat merupakan sumber utama bagi subsidi ongkos naik haji yang diberikan kepada jamaah, dimana nominalnya terus mengalami peningkatan setiap tahun akibat belum terlaksananya rasionalisasi ongkos naik haji dan eksposur risiko dari depresiasi rupiah. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dan analisis deskriptif. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mendapatkan rekomendasi alokasi pada setiap kelas aset dalam portofolio dana haji. Periode penelitian akan dibagi menjadi dua, yaitu sebelum COVID-19 (2017-2019) dan selama COVID-19 (2020-2021) untuk menguji model alokasi aset yang digunakan dapat bekerja pada dua kondisi berbeda. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa alternatif portofolio dana haji dapat dihasilkan melalui model Black-Litterman (BLO), yaitu model yang dibentuk untuk mengeliminasi kekurang-kekurangan dalam model Mean-Variance Markowitz yang cenderung tidak aplikatif dan menghasilkan biaya transaksi yang besar akibat realokasi aset yang ekstrem. Menggunakan data pada periode tahun 2017 hingga 2021, portofolio terbaik ditunjukkan oleh portofolio konservatif yang terkonsentrasi pada aset pendapatan tetap pada rentang 76% hingga 100%. Portofolio ini dihasilkan dari asumsi penilaian pesimistik BPKH akibat kondisi ekonomi yang cenderung menurun selama pandemi. Pembentukan portofolio menggunakan BLO disarankan untuk menggunakan data pada periode Pre COVID-19, karena spesifik menggunakan periode COVID-19 sebagai dasar alokasi, dihasilkan portofolio yang berkinerja lebih rendah akibat ketidaksesuaian asumsi penilaian dengan kondisi aktual.

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Portfolio optimization through Strategic Asset Allocation is important to be carried out by the Hajj Financial Management Agency (BPKH) to increase the value of benefits from investment in hajj funds. The value of benefits is the main source of subsidies for the cost of the pilgrimage given to pilgrims, where the nominal continues to increase every year due to the risk of IDR depreciation and the rationalization of the cost of the pilgrimage has not been implemented. This study uses a quantitative approach and descriptive analysis. The purpose of this study was to obtain recommendations for the allocation of each asset class in the Hajj fund portfolio. The research period will be separated, before COVID-19 (2017-2019) and during COVID-19 (2020-2021) to test the asset allocation model used to work in two different extreme conditions. The results of the study show that alternative hajj fund portfolios can be generated through Black-Litterman model (BLO), a model that is formed to eliminate deficiencies in the Markowitz Mean-Variance model which tends to be inapplicable and generates large transaction costs due to extreme asset reallocation. Using data for the period 2017 to 2021, the most optimum portfolios are shown by the conservative portfolios that concentrated in fixed income assets in the range of 76% to 100%. These portfolios were mostly generated from BPKH's pessimistic view due to economic conditions that tend to decline during the pandemic. It is recommended to form the portfolios using Pre COVID-19 period data in BLO, because when specifically uses the COVID-19 period as the basis for allocation, the portfolios’ performance are lower due to the unaligned view with the actual conditions."

"ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk.mengetahui pengaruh perpindahan modal atau net equity flows yang dipicu oleh flight-to-quality terhadap korelasi return pasar saham dengan return currency market negara maju dan berkembang selama tahun 2002 ? 2015 dengan menggunakan metode regresi panel. Hal tersebut akan digunakan sebagai dasar dari analisis pair-wise correlation pasar saham dan currency market negara maju dan berkembang di dunia dan terutama Indonesia. Penelitian ini menemukan bahwa perpindahan modal yang dipicu oleh flight-to-quality memberikan pengaruh positif terhadap korelasi antara return pasar saham dengan return currency market, namun negatif pengaruhnya untuk Indonesia. Penelitian ini menemukan bahwa negara maju yang berinvestasi di negara berkembang akan mendapatkan efek diversifikasi berupa tambahan volatilitas, dan negara berkembang yang berinvestasi di negara maju akan mendapatkan pengurangan varians portofolio.

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ABSTRACTThis research objective is to explain the effect of net equity flows induced by flight-to-quality on correlation between stock market return and currency market return, especially in Inonesian investor perspectives on 2002 ? 2015 period using panel regression. This research also provide comprehensive explanation on pair-wise correlation between stock market return and currency market return. This research finds that net equity flows induced by flight-to-quality have a significant positive effect on correlation between stock market return and currency market return, but from Indonesian perspectives, net equity flows generate negative correlation between stock market return and currency market return. This research finds that for developed country investor, investing in emerging countries will gives an increased return volatility of their portfolio, and for emerging country investors, investing in developed countries will give a reduced varians effect to their portfolio."

"The primary purpose in this book is to present an integrated and innovative methodological approach for the construction and selection of equity portfolios. The approach takes into account the inherent multidimensional nature of the problem, while allowing the decision makers to incorporate specified preferences in the decision processes. A fundamental principle of modern portfolio theory is that comparisons between portfolios are generally made using two criteria, the expected return and portfolio variance. According to most of the portfolio models derived from the stochastic dominance approach, the group of portfolios open to comparisons is divided into two parts: the efficient portfolios, and the dominated. This work integrates the two approaches providing a unified model for decision making in portfolio management with multiple criteria.​"