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"In this paper, we analyze the empirical relationship between stock return and trading volumebased on stock market cycles. Using daily data for Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) closing price andtrading volume from 2010 to 2014, we identify the bull and bear phases, then we analyze the return–volume relationship in both contemporaneous and dynamic context. We find that (1) there is a positivecontemporaneous return–volume relationship in both bull and bear markets, which is only significantin bull markets; (2) no evidence of asymmetry in contemporaneous relationship is found; and (3)there exists a positive unidirectional causality from stock return to trading volume. Our research hastwo implications. First, in the bull market, overconfidence may grow with long-lasting past successand there is also momentum or positive feedback trading. Second, stock return is able to forecasttrading volume. In addition, our findings are robust for different sample period and data frequency."

"Dampak financial deepening terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi telah menjadi debat selama beberapa dekade. Penelitian ini menganalisa dampak financial deepening terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi tingkat propinsi di Indonesia periode tahun 2001 sampai dengan 2016. Penggunaan data level propinsi selain jarang ditemukan dalam literature juga untuk mengurangi heterogeinitas yang tidak teramati pada data cross section antar negara. Pendekatan financial deepening dalam penelitian ini dibatasi pada sisi perbankan mengingat dalam sistem keuangan Indonesia, peran perbankan masih sangat dominan dibandingkan sektor keuangan lainnya. Melalui pendekatan data panel, diperoleh hasil bahwa terdapat korelasi positif yang signifikan antara financial deepening dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi regional yang mendukung hipotesa supply leading (finance-led growth) pada penelitian-penelitian sebelumnya. Dalam kaitan ini diperlukan langkah serius pemerintah untuk terus melakukan pendalaman pasar keuangan domestik khususnya melalui sektor perbankan agar mampu memberikan dampak positif bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi.

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Impact of financial deepening to economic growth has been a debate for decades. This research analyzes the impact of financial deepening on provincial-level economic growth in Indonesia from 2001 to 2016. Besides The use of provincial level data is rarely found in the literature, the use of provincial-level data is also intended to reduce unobserved heterogeneity in cross-sectional data between countries. The financial deepening approach in this study is limited to the banking side considering that in Indonesia's banking sector is still very dominant compared to other financial sector. By Using data panel approach, the ratio between liquid liabilities to gross regional domestic product (PDRB) and the ratio between credits distributed by the banking sector to PDRB as a measurement of financial deepening, found a significant positive correlation between financial deepening with regional economic growth that supports supply lead hypothesis (finance-led growth) in previous studies. In this regard, Government must be seriously to enhance policy in order to deepen the domestic financial market, especially through the banking sector to encouraging economic growth."