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"Global economic crisis has substantial impacts on organizations and families; consequently, many people become confused and many organizations collapse. Organizations and families discuss the issue and brainstorm to find some solutions to survive from this crisis. This paper explains the role of family and organization in finding solution to survive from this unfavorable situation. Organizations should be optimistic, analytic, and creative. They are encouraged to increase incomes but to decrease loans. Families can overcome the problem by having good financial planning, investing with good knowledge of self-risk profit and the characteristic of investment product."

"There are several factors influencing the financial system stability, namely the internal and the external factors. The occurrence of stock price volatility internationally, the contagion effects and the spillover effects are some external factors that have effect on the financial system stability. This research aims to know the dynamic relationship of regional and global stocks market in international financial system, and then do the analysis of the occurrence of contagion effects and spillover effects on stock price, and see their influence on domestic economics, monetary policy and financial system stability, by GARCH-VAR model.The results of this research indicate that there are some domination of the mature financial market to regional and domestic market. Moreover, the nearby regional stock price index also have a big contribution to the movement of other regional stock price market. The impact of stock price volatility to the IDR exchange rates volatility is relatively small, but not to the price level which is significantly large. Data analysis shows that there is contagion effects in stock market, but the spillover effect from stock price volatility to exchange rates volatility does not occur."

"The main purpose of this study is to find the effect of budget deficit with foreign loans as source of funding on inflation and economic growth. This study focuses on transmission mechanism of budget deficit funding effects on inflation and economic growth. We use a specific simultaneous macroeconomic model which includes 17 behavioral equations and 18 identity equations with 6 blocks in this study, Two Stage Least Square (TSLS) method is employed to estimate the behavioral equations in the model. This study use Indonesia secondary economic data from 1970 to 2003. Econometric tests are performed to produce BLUE estimator. This study also use stochastic simulation with 10000 replications to simulate policy.The results show that using foreign loan to fund budget deficit increases both economic growth and inflation. This result is also supported by the simulation results which show that increase in the proceeds of new foreign loan increases reserves which in turn increase primary money/money supply/monetary base. Interaction of monetary base with money multiplier then increases price level. increase in capital in flow from increase in foreign loan increases government spending which also increases government spending increases in the government spending then add to government capital stock so that economic growth also increases."

"Combining regional growth model and integration of financial institution model, this paper evaluates whether intermediary development influences growth in Indonesia. Recent research has proved that not only banks development influence economic growth positively but also its exogenous components.However, there are several different assumptions during adopt this model in Indonesia. Especially regional approach is differing than national approach in growth model. The point is the existence of intermediary integration across region whit causes the economic agent move freely within a nation.The data show that integration of financial intermediation was not always associated with economic growth. Only four of twenty six provinces which proved strong influence of financial intermediation on economic growth. Labor condition and average annual wages are not exogenous variables which explain growth due to financial intermediation in Indonesia. At least during 1987-1998."

"From January 1, 2001, when new autonomy laws were implemented, lndonesia began to move toward decentralization of what had been a highly decentralized. This policy adopts two complimentary laws. Law No.22/1999, which basically the devolution policy, has been accompanied by La No.25/1999, which basically reflect that decentralization policy in Indonesia has adopted the concept of ?money follows function?.Law No.25/1999 describe the fiscal decentralization process that will create a new intergovernmental transfer scheme between the central government and local government. Some of items in the law were really new ones such as the natural resources revenue sharing, income tax sharing, general allocation fund (OAF) and specifics allocation fund (SAF). The policies oftax and natural resource revenue sharing can result in fiscal imbalance among regions. Tax and natural resources revenue sharing will benefit only to urbanized and natural resources rich regions Because of it, Central Government created General Allocation Funds. This fund has block grant characteristic and will be given to regions by fiscal gap conception. The purpose is to equalize fiscal capacity among regions that in turn also can reduce disparity among them.The Simultaneous Macro Econometric Model is made for analyzing the fiscal decentralization impact to economic growth and region disparity. The policy simulation in this model used transfer fund from central government such as Tax Revenue Sharing, Natural Resource Revenue Sharing and General Allocation Fund. The simulation is carried out to see the optimality of various possible existing policies. The optimality is measured by evaluating the high rate of economic growth and low disparity."

"Sejak tahun 1997 kurs Rupiah mengalami depresiasi terhadap Dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) yang dipicu oleh turunnya nilai Bath Thailand terhadap Dollar. Dan seperti efek domino, hal ini mempengaruhi kurs negara di kawasan Asia Tenggara lainnya seperti Malaysia dan Indonesia. Bagi Indonesia sendiri, krisis ini meluas akibatnya ke segala bidang, seperti struktur investasi, perbankan dan keuangan, bahkan ketenagakerjaan. Hal ini terlihat dari didirikannya BPPN untuk mengatasi krisis perbankan, menurunnya kinerja ekonomi sektor riil, khususnya sektor industri, dan meningkatnya jumlah pengangguran terbuka.Banyak ekonom yang telah mencoba menjelaskan fenomena krisis tersebut dengan berbagai teori, tetapi tampaknya sedikit yang mencoba menjelaskannya sebagai bagian dari siklus bisnis. Teori ekonomi mengenai siklus bisnis ini sebenarnya telah lama berkembang, dan telah diuraikan oleh beberapa ahli ekonomi terkenal, contohnya Schumpeter. Bila diklasifikasi, ada empat siklus bisnis dilihat dari jangka waktu terjadinya, yaitu Siklus Kitchen, Siklus Juglar, Siklus Kuznets, dan Gelombang Kondratieff. Siklus Kitchen adalah siklus yang mengalami satu gelombang kegiatan ekonomi, dari titik terendah yang satu ke titik terendah lainnya selama 3-4 tahun. Siklus Juglar meliputi masa waktu 9-11 tahun, dan Siklus Kuznets dalam masa waktu 15-22 tahun. Gelombang Kondratieff sendiri mengalami siklus selama 40-60 tahun. Untuk ketiga jenis siklus bisnis yang pertama, penyebab utama pergerakan gelombang kegiatan ekonomi adalah investasi. Bedanya, Siklus Kitchen menekankan peran investasi dalam stok barang-barang atau inventory investment, yang terdiri dari bahan baku atau penolong, suku cadang, barang setengah jadi maupun final goods. Siklus Juglar sendiri menekankan pada faktor investasi pada barang modal tetap, dan Siklus Kuznets-lah yang menekankan peranan penting dari sektor konstruksi. Gelombang Kondratieff sendiri menekankan peran empat faktor dinamika, yaitu inovasi dan teknologi, peperangan dan revolusi, produksi emas, dan sumber daya alam. "

"The study examines saving behavior in ASEAN 5+3 namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, Japan, Cina, and Korea during 1991-2007 and its implication toward global imbalances. By using fixed effect panel data regression, this research shows that government spending, interest rate and inflation, financial development through private domestic credit and stock market capitalization along with the 1997 Asian crisis significantly affect the saving behavior. As a result, a macroeconomic stability through interest rate and inflation, the reinforcement of financial development and crisis anticipation policy are required to support global rebalancing through global saving redistribution.

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Studi ini membahas perilaku tabungan negara-negara ASEAN 5+3, yaitu Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapura, Thailand, Filipina, Jepang, Cina, dan Korea, dan implikasinya terhadap ketidakseimbangan global. Dengan menggunakan regresi data panel fixed effect, kajian ini menunjukkan bahwa indikator skal belanja pemerintah, indikator makroekonomi suku bunga dan inflasi, indikator perkembangan berupa finansial kredit domestik swasta dan kapitalisasi pasar saham serta krisis Asia 1997 secara signifikan memengaruhi perilaku tabungan. Implikasinya adalah stabilitas makroekonomi melalui inflasi dan suku bunga serta pengembangan pasar finansial dan kebijakan antisipasi krisis diperlukan untuk mendorong penyeimbangan global kembali melalui redistribusi tabungan dunia."

"AbstractThis paper presents an analysis of the effect of fiscal policy in Indonesia based on a VAR approach. Fiscal policy shocks are identified as a structural residuals related to unexpected government expenditures and tax revenues. Impulse responses are then used to simulate the dynamic response of key macroeconomics variables of shocks. The analysis shows that GDP responses negatively to tax shocks, and positively to expenditure shock. Moreover, disposable income and private consumptionreact negatively to taxation and positively to government expenditures. Altogether the results are consistent with that of Keynesian models."

"AbstractEconomic and political systems might have a great share in determining the speed of the economic growth in an economy. Majority of the researchs in the past relied on physical input accumulation in determining economic growth, without taking into account the contribution of institutional characteristics. This research is aimed to test the hypothesis that economic freedom and political system affect the economic growth. Using panel data method (pooled least square approach) in eight ASEAN countries during the period of 1997-2007 and based on a framework of Solow economic growth model, it is showed that the more free and efficient economy leads to faster economic growth, and political democracy can otherwise hinder economic growth. Economy can grow higher if public policies are directed to the creation of: a stable monetary conditions, a more efficient in intermediation of financial markets, appropriate public budget policy, straightforward and efficient regulations, corruption eradication, as well as lower taxes. Nevertheless the index of investment freedom and property rights are far away from the behaviors of existing theories and hypothesis, so further research is needed."

"AbstractWe try to analyze the impact of Chinese Textile and Garment (T&G) imports, and the internal and external factors to the firm survival and growth of T&G industry in Indonesia, for the period study of 2002 to 2007. Probit regression model is used to analyze the impact of Chinese imports to the survival of firm, while OLS regression model is used to analyze its growth. It shows that the ability of firms' survival is influenced by the internal and external factors. The Chinese imports give positive impact to the firms' survival ability. On the other hand, firm's growth is only affected by its internal characteristics, while the impact of Chinese imports is proven not significant. The Heckman test result stated that there are no correlation between firms' ability to survive and the firm growth behavior.AbstrakStudi ini menganalisis dampak dari penetrasi impor TPT Cina, faktor internal, serta faktor eksternal terhadap kebertahanan dan pertumbuhan perusahaan dalam industri TPT Indonesia periode tahun 2002-2007. Metode probit regression digunakan untuk mengetahui dampak impor Cina terhadap kebertahanan perusahaan, sementara regresi linear sederhana (OLS) digunakan untuk menganalisis pertumbuhannya. Ditemukan bahwa kebertahanan perusahaan dipengaruhi oleh karakteristik internal dan eksternal, serta impor Cina yang memberikan dampak positif. Sementara pertumbuhan perusahaan hanya dipengaruhi oleh faktor internal, di mana impor Cina tidak memberikan dampak signikan. Hasil pengujian Heckman menyatakan tidak ada indikasi hubungan antara kebertahanan perusahaan dengan perilaku pertumbuhannya."