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"According to previous studies on Surabaya river water ,quality of this river water was very bad or on polluted condition....."

"Estimation of regression curve usually conducted using three methods; parametric method, non- parametric method, and semi-parametric methods..."

"Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui wilayah harga tanah di Kota Tangerang Selatan berdasarkan keinginan masyarakat (Harga Tanah Aktual), harga yang ditetapkan oleh pemerintah (Harga NJOP) dan harga pendugaan yang merupakan hasil perhitungan statistik (harga estimasi). Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi wilayah harga tanah Aktual, NJOP dan Estimasi dipengaruhi oleh jarak terhadap pintu tol, jarak terhadap jalan arteri, terletak pada pemukiman teratur dan jarak terhadap fasilitas umum kesehatan. Faktor wilayah terbangun/tidak terbangun merupakan faktor penentu Harga Tanah Aktual dan Estimasi namun tidak berpengaruh terhadap Harga Tanah NJOP. Sedangkan jarak terhadap Fasilitas keamanan dan pendidikan merupakan faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap Harga Tanah NJOP namun tidak berpengaruh terhadap Harga Tanah Aktual dan Estimasi. Model Estimasi Spasial Harga Tanah Objektif adalah akan semakin tinggi apabila terletak dekat pintu tol, dekat jalan arteri, dekat fasilitas umum kesehatan dan terletak pada wilayah terbangun dengan pemukiman yang teratur. Status tanah, karateristik wilayah dan jarak fasilitas keamanan tidak berpengaruh terhadap model estimasi spasial harga tanah objektif. Apabila karakteristik wilayah bersifat desakota dikeluarkan dari model, maka karakteristik wilayah (bersifat perkotaan dan perdesaan) akan berpegaruh terhadap fluktuasi Harga Tanah Objektif. Jadi profil karakter desakota justru cendrung membiaskan Harga Tanah di Kota Tangerang Selatan.

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Objective of this research is to make a map of the land price in South Tangerang City based on 3 prices, i.e.: the prices determined by the public (actual land prices), the prices determined by the government (NJOP), and the prices as the results of statistical modeling (estimation prices).

The results of this research show that the spatial pattern of land prices (actual land prices, NJOP land prices, estimation land prices) are influenced by the distance from the gate of high way, the distance from artery road, location at proper/not proper residence, and the distance from public health facility.

The model of objective estimation land price is higher in the location where the land is closer to the gate of high way, to the artery road, to the public health facility, and in the developed area, with proper residence. The land status, the characteristic, and the distance from security facility do not give effects to the objective land prices. If the observations with characteristic rural-urban are not included in the model, this explanatory variable (characteristic of the area) contributes significantly to the land prices. In other words, characteristic ruralurban causes the bias to the land price of South Tangerang City."

"Metode Small Area Estimation (SAE) telah banyak diterapkan untuk mendapatkan taksiran dengan tingkat presisi yang tinggi pada populasi kecil. Pada 1979 Fay dan Herriot mengajukan suatu model untuk mencari taksiran parameter pada SAE yang dikenal dengan model Fay-Herriot. Sayangnya, model Fay-Herriot tidak mampu menjelaskan adanya efek spasial antar daerah yang tercangkup dalam satu lingkup populasi besar. Oleh karenanya, diperkenalkan model CAR Fay-Herriot, yaitu model Fay-Herriot ditambah dengan efek spasial di dalamnya. Parameter model Fay-Herriot dan CAR Fay-Herriot dapat ditaksir dengan menggunakan metode Bayes (Empirical Bayes dan Hierarchical Bayes) dan non-Bayes. Pada tugas akhir ini digunakan metode Hierarchical Bayes (HB) dengan pendekatan MCMC (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) dengan cara membangkitkan sampel simulasi menggunakan Gibbs sampling dan Metropolis-Hasting sedemikian sehingga diperoleh taksiran titik mean untuk pada model Fay-Herriot dan CAR Fay-Herriot.

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Small Area Estimation (SAE) methods have been widely used in practice due to the increasing demand for precise estimates for local regions and various small areas. In 1979 Fay and Herriot proposed a model to search for the parameter estimations in SAE known as Fay-Herriot model. Unfortunately, Fay-Herriot models are unable to explain the presence of spatial effects among regions under similar scope of population. Therefore, new model has been proposed, known as CAR Fay-Herriot model, generalization of Fay-Herriot model with spatial effect on it. Both Fay-Herriot and CAR Fay-Herriot?s model parameters can be estimated by using Bayesian (Empirical Bayes and Hierarchical Bayes) and non-Bayesian approach. In this mini thesis, the method used is Hierarchical Bayes (HB) with MCMC (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) approach by generating sample simulation using Gibbs sampling and Metropolis-Hasting to obtain point estimation of means of parameter interest in Fay-Herriot model and the CAR Fay-Herriot."

"Topics emphasized include nonparametric density estimation as an exploratory device plus the deeper models to which the exploratory analysis points, multi-dimensional data analysis, and analysis of remote sensing data, cancer progression, chaos theory, epidemiological modeling, and parallel based algorithms. New methods discussed are quick nonparametric density estimation based techniques for resampling and simulation based estimation techniques not requiring closed form solutions."

"Risiko operasional merupakan salah satu jenis risiko pada perbankan yang wajib dikelola dengan baik karena sifatnya yang melekat pada setiap aktifitas fungsional bank. Dalam pengelolaan risiko operasional, bank dipersyaratkan untuk memperhitungkan kerugian yang diperkirakan dan kerugian yang tidak diperkirakan dalam kebutuhan modal bagi risiko operasional. Kebutuhan modal bagi risiko operasional ini dikenal sebagai Economic Capital (EC). Komite Basel dalam aturan Basel II, memberikan tiga pendekatan dalam perhitungan EC salah satunya pendekatan Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA). Metode AMA yang banyak digunakan adalah metode Loss Distribution Approach (LDA). Dalam metode LDA, bank harus mengestimasi loss severity distribution (distribusi severitas) dan loss frequency distribution (distribusi frekuensi) kemudian membentuk aggregate loss distribution dari gabungan kedua distribusi tersebut. Nilai EC dengan metode LDA didapat dari Value at Risk (VaR) pada aggregate loss distribution dengan tingkat kepercayaan 99,9%. Permasalahan dari metode LDA saat ini adalah dalam mengestimasi distribusi severitas masih berbasis pada suatu model distribusi tertentu, padahal banyak kasus dimana data tidak dapat digambarkan dengan baik oleh suatu model distribusi yang sudah ada. Oleh karena itu, dalam tulisan ini akan dijelaskan solusi dari permasalahan tersebut, yaitu dengan mengestimasi distribusi severitas berbasis pada data. Metode yang digunakan adalah Kernel Density Estimation (KDE). KDE merupakan suatu pendekatan statistika non-parametrik untuk mengestimasi fungsi distribusi probabilitas dari suatu variabel acak jika diasumsikan bentuk atau model distribusi dari variabel acak tersebut tidak diketahui. Hasil dari penelitian adalah estimasi distribusi severitas oleh KDE lebih baik dalam menggambarkan data dibandingkan dengan menggunakan model distribusi tertentu. Nilai EC yang dihasilkan oleh metode LDA yang menggunakan KDE lebih kecil 1,6 – 3,2% dibandingkan nilai EC yang dihasilkan oleh metode LDA yang menggunakan model distribusi tertentu.

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Operational risk is one kind of risk on banking which must be managed well because of its character is inherent in every fungtional activity in Bank. In the management of operasional risk, Bank must be able to calculate a predictable loss and an unpredictable loss in capital requisite for operasional risk. The capital requisite in operasional risk is known as Economic Capital (EC). In the regulation of Basel II, Committee Basel gives three approaches of calculation in EC. One of that is Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA). In AMA method that is the most used in approach is Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) method. In LDA method, Bank must be able to estimate loss severity distribution (severity distribution) and loss frequency distribution (frequency distribution) and aggregate loss distribution is formed from both of them. Through LDA method, the value at EC can be gotten from Value at Risk (VaR) in aggregate loss distribution with the level of confidence reaches 99,9%. The problem from LDA method recently is in estimation a severity distribution which is still refers to a model on particular distribution whereas there are many cases which can not describe a data well through a distribution model that has been there. Therefore, in this paper, it will be explained how to face or the good solution from that problem. The good solution to face it is through estimation severity distribution that is refers to the data with using Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) method. KDE is a statistic approach non- parametric to estimate the function of distribution from disordered variabel that has not known. The result on this research is estimation of severity distribution through KDE is better than another in describing the data. LDA method using KDE is smaller the value at EC 1,6 % - 3,2 % than the value at EC using another distribution model in LDA method."

"ABSTRAKPembuatan estimasi biaya yang efektif dipengaruhi oleh dua faktor; aplikasihitung yang digunakan dan estimator itu sendiri. Seorang estimator yang mahirakan menentukan akurasi estimasi biaya dan aplikasi hitung yang efektif akanmeningkatkan kecepatan pembuatannya serta akurasi perhitungannya akan semakinbaik. Di sisi lain, menurut Data Statistik Lembaga Pengembangan Jasa Konstruksi,sekitar 88% kontraktor Indonesia adalah kontraktor kecil. Dengan perdaganganbebas Masyarakat Ekonomi Asean yang telah diberlakukan, tantangan bagikontraktor kecil Indonesia untuk bersaing akan semakin besar.Dengan kedua alasan tersebut, penulis merancang Breakdown untukmeningkatkan daya saing kontraktor kecil Indonesia sebagai aplikasi pembuatanestimasi biaya penawaran. Breakdown dirancang dengan memperhatikan faktorpembuatan estimasi biaya, kebutuhan kontraktor kecil dan aplikasi yang sudah ada.Aplikasi ini dibangun berbasis Javascript dengan framework Webix. MetodeHallway Testing telah dilakukan untuk menguji coba purwarupa aplikasi ini dandidapatkan kesimpulan bahwa aplikasi ini sesuai dengan tujuannya dan mudahdigunakan.

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ABSTRACTThere are two factors in order to achieve an effective cost estimation;calculation application that being used and also by the estimator itself. A capableestimator will determine the accuracy of a cost estimation and a good calculationapplication will increase the speed and further calculation accuracy. On the otherside, according to statistical data from Lembaga Pengembangan Jasa Konstruksi(Institution of Construction Services), about 88% of Indonesian contractors aresmall contractors. In accordance of Asean Economic Community program applied,Indonesian small contractors are faced with bigger challenge.With those reasons in mind, the writer designed the Breakdown to increaseIndonesian small contractors? competitiveness as a bidding cost estimationapplication. Breakdown is designed with consideration from cost estimation factors,small contractors? needs and other application that was already available. Thisapplication is built based on Javasript and Webix framework. Hallway Testingmethod has been applied to test the prototype of the application which result aconclusion that this application has achieved its purposes and easy to use.;"

"Product manufacturing cost estimation in the early stages of the design process is useful for accelerating product time to market, reducing costs, and increasing quality in order to obtain products with a high level of competitiveness in the free market. Complexity and machining cost are important variables to estimate the final cost of the product. However, current cost estimation models only consider their calculations based on the design which has been determined beforehand, so that it is difficult to apply a cost estimation model early on in the design process because of minimal information. Therefore, in this research, a new method to produce a cost estimation model during the early stage of the design process is proposed. The new model was developed by correlating the cost calculation with the complexity of the machining process based on product features. By using this model, the designers are able to put through design changes quickly by modifying revisions at the manufacturing stage. In this paper, the development and implementation of the proposed cost estimation model which involves the milling process is known as the SPMF (Single Product Multi-Features) Product model is explained in detail. The proposed method shows that the SPMF Product model can be used to produce a manufacturing cost estimation based on process complexity."