Perubahan iklim global mengganggu pola curah hujan dan meningkatkan risiko cuaca ekstrem, menyebabkan pulau kecil seperti Bintan sanat rentan terhadap kelangkaan air. Studi ini bertujuan memprediksi perubahan curah hujan, menilai keseimbangan ketersediaan-kebutuhan air, dan merancang strategi adaptif berbasis iklim, tutupan lahan, dan pertumbuhan penduduk dengnan menggunakan data curah hujan CHIRPS dan proyeksi iklim CORDEX-SEA, serta pemodelan hidrologi. Hasil menunjukkan tren penurunan curah hujan tahunan dan musiman akibat perubahan iklim, diperburuk oleh El Niño dan IOD positif. Skenario RTRW 2038 menunjukkan potensi penurunan suplai hingga 74%, dengan defisit air 68–81% dalam kondisi ekstrem. Strategi adaptif berbasis multikriteria merekomendasikan Gunung Kijang dan Toapaya sebagai lokasi prioritas tampungan air.

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Climate change disrupts rainfall patterns and intensifies extreme weather events, making small islands like Bintan highly vulnerable the water resource scarcity This study aims to: project changes in rainfall patterns, assess the balance between water availability and demand , and devise an adaptive water management strategy based on climate, land use, and population dynamics, using CHIRPS rainfall data, CORDEX-SEA climate projections, and hydrological modeling. The findings reveal a declining trend in both annual and seasonal rainfall, aggravated by El Niño and positive IOD phases. The 2038 RTRW scenario shows a potential supply decline of up to 74%, with a water deficit of 68–81% under extreme conditions. The multi-criteria adaptive strategy recommends Gunung Kijang and Toapaya as priority locations for water storage.