Penelitian ini menganalisis hubungan tarif cukai terhadap perusahaan rokok di industri rokok Tanah Air yang tercatat di Ditjen Bea Cukai. Untuk mengetahui bagaimana bentuk pasar industri rokok, dilakukan analisis menggunakan Structure-Conduct-Performance, yang melihat hubungan antara struktur, perilaku, dan kinerja industri rokok. Hasilnya, industri rokok di Indonesia memiliki struktur oligipoli dengan tingkat persaingan moderat. Dari dua model pada seluruh perusahaan, ditemukan bahwa penerapan tarif cukai berhubungan negatif dan signifikan dengan pangsa pasar perusahaan rokok. Begitupun dengan harga jual rokok. Pertumbuhan penduduk usia 15-24 tahun juga diketahui berhubungan positif dan signifikan terhadap pangsa pasar rokok. Sementara itu, pada 5 perusahaan utama, pada model 1 atau usia 15+, ditemukan bahwa cukai per harga jual berpengaruh positif terhadap pangsa pasar.

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This research analyzed the correlation between excise rates and Cigarette companies in Indonesia which was recorded in the Directorate General of Customs and Excise. In order to find out how the market shapes the cigarette industry, the analysis is conducted using the Structure-Conduct-Performance, which looked at the relationship between structure, behavior and performance of the cigarette industry. As a result, the cigarette industry in Indonesia has oligopoly structure with a moderate level of competition. Of the two models in the entire company, it was found that the application of the tax rates significantly and negatively associated with cigarette companies? market share, as well as the sale price of cigarettes. The growth population of 15-24 year-olds is positively and significantly impacted to cigarette market share. Meanwhile, the five major companies, the model 1 or ages 15+, found that excise per selling price has positive effect on market share.