[Studi-studi model eksplorasi secara umum menjelaskan prilaku eksplorasi dengan analisis variabel geologi dan ekonomi pada tingkat makro seperti wilayah, provinsi dan negara. Pada kenyataannya, cadangan migas dan kedalaman sumur masing-masing menentukan tingkat volume temuan dan biaya pengeboran yang dijelaskan secara spesifik pada tingkat basin geologis. Penelitian ini fokus pada tingkat pengeboran eksplorasi (wells drilled) dengan analisis analisis variabel geologi dan ekonomi menggunakan 32 basin geologis di Indonesia dalam periode 2004-2014. Hasil estimasi model empiris menunjukkan bahwa tingkat pengeboran eksplorasi ditentukan oleh tingkat keberhasilan penemuan migas (lag of success rate), volume temuan migas (lag of discovery size of oil and gas) dan lokasi basin (region). Sedangkan variabel ekonomi yang menentukan tingkat pengeboran eksplorasi terdiri dari harga minyak dunia (lag of oil price). Selain itu, deplesi minyak berdampak signifikan menjelaskan tingkat pengeboran eksplorasi dengan karakteristik basin Indonesia yang didominasi oleh mature oil fields.

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Earlier studies of exploration models are generally characterized by equations describing the behavior of exploration at the macro-level analysis such as region, province or state-level. In reality, there is specific impact of geological basin characteristics to wells drilled’s decision. This study focuses on the geological and economic factors that particularly determine the wells drilled decision using an empirical model to analyze at the micro-level using disaggregated panel data of 32 geological basins in Indonesia over the period 2004-2013. The empirical results show that the number of wells drilled are determined significantly by lag of success rate, lag of discovery size of oil and gas and region of geological basin. Then, it shows that a lag of global oil price determined significantly the number of wells drilled, instead of a local oil price. Finally, oil depletion effect also determined significantly the number of wells drilled as the geological characteristic of geological basin dominated by mature oil fields., Earlier studies of exploration models are generally characterized by

equations describing the behavior of exploration at the macro-level analysis such

as region, province or state-level. In reality, there is specific impact of geological

basin characteristics to wells drilled’s decision. This study focuses on the

geological and economic factors that particularly determine the wells drilled

decision using an empirical model to analyze at the micro-level using

disaggregated panel data of 32 geological basins in Indonesia over the period

2004-2013. The empirical results show that the number of wells drilled are

determined significantly by lag of success rate, lag of discovery size of oil and gas

and region of geological basin. Then, it shows that a lag of global oil price

determined significantly the number of wells drilled, instead of a local oil price.

Finally, oil depletion effect also determined significantly the number of wells

drilled as the geological characteristic of geological basin dominated by mature

oil fields]